I'm gonna go with my car being the last one to be delivered this year - P2159. As it is the last car, I assume Elon will deliver it himself, with a magnum of champagne, and some inspirational music in the background. Steven Spielberg will be filming everything, to produce the 'Victory of the Electric Car' movie, which will finally convince everybody that ICE cars are inherently inferior to electric cars..........and then I'll wake up.
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Guesses on Last Production # to be Delivered in 2012?
- Thread starter bbmertz
- Start date
whoa there, no waking up!
The party will be huge- New Years at the Factory, Elon w/ magnum of champagne - me w/a 10L of Cab and showgirls/boys in the factory dancing ... and the convincing of the ICE lovers, hmmm, tough. We'll just stick to the best party ever + 2159 awesome cars out the doors
Well, plus the Sigs, SSLs, etc., but minus the non-85s delayed beyond Jan. 1.
jeffhre
Member
Well, FWIW I think it will be exactly like that. Well, perhaps without the magnum. And the movie. And Spielberg. And Elon Musk. And um, maybe not the party.
But everything else sounds about right! Well OK, maybe not everybody will be convinced that EV's are superior but...
TheAustin
Model X 90D (Former Model S P85)
As long as it's over 2,009, then we're cool and the gang. Incidentally...If I'm P2,009, what aggregate number Model S am I? Translation: How many Model S's will have been produced prior to the Production cars? Based on the 1,200-1,300 Sigs/Special Sigs, etc., that seems to put me at around an aggregate #3,300-3,400...And, considering the 3,500 estimates (even worst case), I'm not going to lie, that has me a little nervous :/
Babylonfive
Power12
Right. Only signatures (all of which have 85kWh packs) have been delivered to date.
What's your configuration? Guess my MVPA estimate of Nov/Dec 2012 for P4909 is more likely to be Feb/Mar 2013. I agree that it is worth the extra time to ensure a high-quality build, but am concerned about waiting a full year for the 2013 tax credit. I'm also surprised that Tesla has recently provided MVPA estimates of Jan-Mar 2013 to reservations in the 6000s+, which seems very unrealistic.
They should produces 5000+ cars between Jan 1 and Mar 31 2013. I don't see how getting #6000 in March is such a stretch.
My reservation number is 3072 and the MVPA I signed said delivery in Nov-Dec of 2012. Every time I have spoken to a Tesla rep they asked me what my reservation number was and almost without fail they would tell me unsolicited that I would "definitely" be getting my car by the end of the year. With the latest signature deliveries at ~650 in mid October I struggle to think that they will be able to ramp up to meet 3,000 cars produced by EOY 2012 much less delivered. While I am concerned about the tax credit in 2013 more importantly I am just ready to stop going to the gas station to fill up! I am betting we will see 2500 tops by the EOY....
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Welcome to TMC, tdubb! Yes, estimates from (most) Tesla reps haven't been of too much value as they are seemingly as much in the dark as we customers are w.r.t. production status and delays.
Yes, 3,072 seems like a real long shot for 2012 at this point. I'm not too confident about my 1,620 being done either and I probably have only about a 1,000 cars ahead of me (accommodating for cancellations, upgrades, deferrals etc.) after the Signatures.
Yes, 3,072 seems like a real long shot for 2012 at this point. I'm not too confident about my 1,620 being done either and I probably have only about a 1,000 cars ahead of me (accommodating for cancellations, upgrades, deferrals etc.) after the Signatures.
David-El
Model S - P3078
I think most of these guesses are wildly optimistic. Consider:
1. GB has referred to the "re-estimation" of cars by the end of 2012 as 2,500-3,000, not 3,000-3,500. Don't know whether that's produced or delivered.
2. With the shift in delivery windows, it looks like the Sigs will be getting delivered at least through the end of November.
3. While there is no consensus as to the sequencing/numbering of the Rs, it is quite likely that 400-500 Rs will be produced before the Ps get produced.
4. There is some possibility that up to 200 Canadian SSLs and Sigs will be produced before the Ps get produced.
5. Ramping up to 400/week by year end probably means around 1400 cars in December.
On the other side of the equation, the predicted highest production number will be increased by cancellations and deferrals, and by the assumption that only the 85kwh cars will be delivered in 2012.
Taking all this into account, I will be surprised if the highest production number delivered in 2012 exceeds #1,000. Of course, it is just a coincidence that my number is 983.
1. GB has referred to the "re-estimation" of cars by the end of 2012 as 2,500-3,000, not 3,000-3,500. Don't know whether that's produced or delivered.
2. With the shift in delivery windows, it looks like the Sigs will be getting delivered at least through the end of November.
3. While there is no consensus as to the sequencing/numbering of the Rs, it is quite likely that 400-500 Rs will be produced before the Ps get produced.
4. There is some possibility that up to 200 Canadian SSLs and Sigs will be produced before the Ps get produced.
5. Ramping up to 400/week by year end probably means around 1400 cars in December.
On the other side of the equation, the predicted highest production number will be increased by cancellations and deferrals, and by the assumption that only the 85kwh cars will be delivered in 2012.
Taking all this into account, I will be surprised if the highest production number delivered in 2012 exceeds #1,000. Of course, it is just a coincidence that my number is 983.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Douglas, of all the assumptions, I doubt if Tesla will get to 5) in particular for atleast 3-4 months! Their supply chain seems to have broken down too quickly and I'm not sure if the factory's really "humming" otherwise. My conservative estimate now is barely 500 GP cars in 2012 after the Sigs (US and CAD) and Rs are done - that's stuck at 100-ish cars a week. We may even hear something to that effect in the November 5th earnings call.
Sorry, am really in a pessimistic mood now and am guessing that I'll have to wait till Jan/Feb... Worried about my TSLA investment too on top of that.
Kipernicus
Model S Res#P1440
Right there with you GG. My prediction is that US Sigs will be done with production by early Nov but deliveries won't be done till end of Nov. Then they'll produce the Rs and CAN sigs and maybe a few hundred P's in Dec, not exceeding USP500.
As others have mentioned I'm also worried about the production of 60kWh packs, and the fact that we haven't even seen an official EPA rating yet or any indication that they've built and tested a car with the 60 (or 40). I think it will be Feb for us :crying:
contaygious
Active Member
No more than 500 Ps you think? WOW I thought P was before can sig? Not the case anymore!? Dang I'm out late DEC so I won't even get my P then.
timdorr
Model S P90D w/AP3.0
They're not shutting down production while delivering the Sigs. Production on GP #1 will start right behind Sig #1000. Should even be the same day. They don't have the financial luxury of slowing down or stopping. They're running 6 day work weeks for a reason!
They will make the Canadian Sigs and possibly the European Sigs before starting on the GP's. I can easily see Tesla making as many 85 kWh S's as they can get away with before creating the 60's and 40 kWh pack cars in the GP series.
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