Guesses on Last Production # to be Delivered in 2012?

[Hank42]

How do I tell what Production # I am based on my reservation number? (Yes, I got my MVP - where does it say?)

 

[Doug_G]

I'll go with 3,300.

 

[cinergi]

What's the prize for guessing correctly?

If I vote $1 and everyone else guesses too high, do I win?

 

[Lloyd]

What's the prize for guessing correctly?

If I vote $1 and everyone else guesses too high, do I win?

I guess P2420

I'll offer free charging for life in San Luis Obispo. (I already offered that though)

To be clear this is production # (Total number produced) or P number (Number of production models delivered by the end of the year) I assume this is the latter or the # of Production models delivered.

 

[bonnie]

Total of 5001 cars delivered by EOY (Founders, Sig, Production). That would give the shorts a 'tsunami of hurt'.

 

[PeterW]

Total of 5001 cars delivered by EOY (Founders, Sig, Production). That would give the shorts a 'tsunami of hurt'.

Yep, I think that is still the target and still achievable.

 

[ckessel]

Yep, I think that is still the target and still achievable.

Didn't they just reduce guidance to something like 3000-3300?

Why would you still think 5000 is the target?

 

[bonnie]

Didn't they just reduce guidance to something like 3000-3300?

Why would you still think 5000 is the target?

Because it would really mess the shorts up. And because that would be so cool to watch.

 

[ckessel]

Because it would really mess the shorts up. And because that would be so cool to watch.

Oh certainly. I was going the route of figuring out a reasonable number based on Tesla's guidance. If we're rooting for numbers, then hell, write me down for a big number.

 

[PeterW]

Didn't they just reduce guidance to something like 3000-3300?

Why would you still think 5000 is the target?

Because of this from Elon:

As for the reduced vehicle delivery guidance in Q3 and Q4 of this year, it is unfortunate that we are at the steepest portion of our production ramp. This gives the appearance of being much further behind than we actually are. Our production rate in the last week of September was roughly 100 vehicles, four times greater than our production in the first week of September as we overcame supply constraints. If the calendar were simply shifted a few weeks to the right, Tesla would have exceeded the 500 vehicle delivery target for the third quarter. In fact, I am pleased to report that we completed production of 359 vehicles last quarter (delivering over 250 of those to customers) and have already made our 500th vehicle body.

The 3000-3300 is worst case projections and from what Elon says (above) 4000+ is probably where they are at so I think they will still try for 5000 and can get there if things go well.

 

[bonnie]

Oh certainly. I was going the route of figuring out a reasonable number based on Tesla's guidance. If we're rooting for numbers, then hell, write me down for a big number.

And also because I believe it is possible. I do believe that's a reasonable number. (It was just more fun to say it would mess up the shorts.)

 

[AndyM]

OK, my turn to add a thoughtful response.

1200 Signatures built, including Founders.
Then, 439 Roadster reservations, of which maybe 20% will cancel, defer, or select 40 kWh batteries. That means about 350 cars built.
1200 + 350 = 1550. So, my estimate of the number of cars built before the P series gets rolling is 1550 cars.

The guidance given was 3225 cars built, and that's a nice low estimate for financial conservatives
(Bonnie, I hope those shorts take it in the... shorts).
3225 - 1550 = 1675. 1675 cars to deliver to P reservation holders. Let's assume 75% of those don't defer, so 1675 is 75% of... 2233.

That's my guess: Whoever owns P2233 will be the last one delivered in 2012.

On the optimistic side, let's say they keep the 5000 goal... P4600 would get their car in 2012.

 

[Robert.Boston]

How do I tell what Production # I am based on my reservation number? (Yes, I got my MVP - where does it say?)

Go to your Garage and, at the bottom left under the words "Model S", you should see a number preceded by a pound sign. That's your Production number.

 

[ahimberg]

There's always a mix in their numbers of deliveries vs bodies built. I think they'll be around 5000 built, but probably closer to 4000 delivered.
Actual delivery my guess is something like P3500

(and yeah my guess is slanted so I get mine ), but if taxes go up as scheduled next year, the tax credit could be better even having to wait to get it. December delivery won't be too great anyway, likely won't be able to drive it much due to on super steep icy hills in my neighborhood.

 

[Todd Burch]

OK, my turn to add a thoughtful response.

1200 Signatures built, including Founders.
Then, 439 Roadster reservations, of which maybe 20% will cancel, defer, or select 40 kWh batteries. That means about 350 cars built.
1200 + 350 = 1550. So, my estimate of the number of cars built before the P series gets rolling is 1550 cars.

The guidance given was 3225 cars built, and that's a nice low estimate for financial conservatives
(Bonnie, I hope those shorts take it in the... shorts).
3225 - 1550 = 1675. 1675 cars to deliver to P reservation holders. Let's assume 75% of those don't defer, so 1675 is 75% of... 2233.

That's my guess: Whoever owns P2233 will be the last one delivered in 2012.

On the optimistic side, let's say they keep the 5000 goal... P4600 would get their car in 2012.

Andy, we've heard consistently from Tesla that the numbering doesn't reset after the Rs. The first slot after R439 would be P440. (I think there are lower numbered Ps than 439....but there aren't equivalent R numbers). For instance, the sequence would go (for example) R1, P2, P3, R4, R5, P6, etc. So you could bump your number up some.

 

[jkirkebo]

Guessing only 70% of reservation holders are getting the 85kwh battery and air suspension.

Your guess is very much in line with the poll results here:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/poll.php?pollid=122&do=showresults

 

[Schlermie]

P3000

 

[dsm363]

I'll guess P3,198.

 

[bbmertz]

I'm enjoying seeing everyone's guesses. Coincidentally, they all seem to be about 1-2 numbers higher than each poster's production number (myself included). :smile:

For those of you who prefer to be more scientific when preparing your estimate, note that R378 was just quoted a delivery window of 11/2-11/16. Not looking good for me to get 4909 by 12/31, despite my Nov/Dec MVPA estimate. Hope the federal tax credit is still offered in 2013!

 

[DavidM]

The key is "To Be Delivered".
I think there will be a few hundred cars waiting to be delivered on 12/31/12 (in various locations around the US).
However, I suspect that anyone living in California within a day's drive of the factory will opt to pick up their car at the factory the last week of the year, in order to get the $7,500 tax break for the 2012 tax year (assuming they qualify).

So I think we could go as high as P3500 for someone picking up at the factory. That's skipping a lot of undelivered cars.
I'm fearing that my car (P2624) will be one of those 300 or so cars sitting on a truck, waiting to be delivered to me in Florida on 12/31/12.