HW4 sensor suite and hi-res camera updates?

[kabin]

Elon is still talking about FSD adding autonomy value to the owner.

 

[kabin]

Not surprising.
Good enough for what?

Obsolescence. HW3 is so good they needed to increase HW4 capability by at least 3x per rumor.

 

[EVNow]

Obsolescence. HW3 is so good they needed to increase HW4 capability by at least 3x per rumor.

Or just bought the best specs they could for the budget.

 

[JulienW]

Not surprising.
Good enough for what?

Was only listening while working so not 100% but I remember him saying something like HW4 will be better but HW3 should be good enough.

Again this may not match the transcripts but what I seem to remember.

 

[EVNow]

Not surprising.
Good enough for what?

3x better than humans. HW4 will be 5x better.

When you are just making up numbers, does it really matter?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

3x better than humans. HW4 will be 5x better.

When you are just making up numbers, does it really matter?

Yes these are the specific metrics he gave. I think he said average driver but not sure. Sad. That is poor performance even for HW4.

In any case, retrofitting is not financially viable. That much is now set in stone, finally.

Good news is that they clearly expect to get there with HW3. I wonder where they currently stand? 100x less safe than a human? How do you measure - you cannot look at current performance of course since that is not relevant to where they currently stand! All very confusing. Once you get to 3x better than human you can’t account for monitoring.

 

[kabin]

Or just bought the best specs they could for the budget.

For sure for the more common components like cameras.

 

[kabin]

They don't sound very certain on the 4680 still.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Elon is still talking about FSD adding autonomy value to the owner.

As he said, most people don’t understand what he is talking about.

 

[FloridaJohn]

Not surprising.
Good enough for what?

For the accountants to count FSD as “delivered”.

Probably not good enough to actually drive by itself, though.

 

[thewishmaster]

Well Elon just said it on the earnings call and upgrading HW3 to HW4 is a no go. He said HW3 will be good enough.

Not surprising. I do think HW3 will be "enough" as long as they scope functionality appropriately (eg. no robotaxi, no hands-off operation, etc).

 

[Mardak]

I do think HW3 will be "enough" as long as they scope functionality appropriately (eg. no robotaxi, no hands-off operation, etc)

Are you suggesting even if Tesla achieves 2-3x safer than average human with HW3, it won't be good enough for robotaxi or hands-off? Or that you have doubts Elon Musk's safety expectations will be achievable with HW3?

 

[Bladerskb]

3x better than humans. HW4 will be 5x better.

When you are just making up numbers, does it really matter?

He's basically saying that better sensors and more powerfully chip like others already have would lead to better performance. Although he has convinced his fanbase of the opposite.

But even now the fanbase won't connect the dots.

 

[pilotSteve]

I think this just makes me more convinced to hold on to my 2017 S90D with FSD that was advertised to drive me across the country while I slept or worked. What if they say "well, it does but it requires HW6" (or something). At what point do they basically have to give us new vehicles?

 

[pdx_m3s]

I think this just makes me more convinced to hold on to my 2017 S90D with FSD that was advertised to drive me across the country while I slept or worked. What if they say "well, it does but it requires HW6" (or something). At what point do they basically have to give us new vehicles?

Sorry man. Not gonna happen.

 

[thewishmaster]

Are you suggesting even if Tesla achieves 2-3x safer than average human with HW3, it won't be good enough for robotaxi or hands-off? Or that you have doubts Elon Musk's safety expectations will be achievable with HW3?

The latter; the step change in behavior required to get it to a level where I can actually use it for an entire trip without disengaging will need a chunk more compute (and better cameras maybe) IMO. We all know about his prediction accuracy.

 

[Dewg]

I think this just makes me more convinced to hold on to my 2017 S90D with FSD that was advertised to drive me across the country while I slept or worked. What if they say "well, it does but it requires HW6" (or something). At what point do they basically have to give us new vehicles?

Your best case scenario is they refund your FSD portion of the purchase, possibly with interest, if you take them to court. Class action may also provide some financial relief, but the payout is usually less per participant, with the lawyers making most.

 

[DanCar]

Elon is a good man. He just wants to save you the trouble of upgrading from hw3 -> hw4 -> hw5, and go directly to hw5 with birds eye view. /s

 

[JHCCAZ]

Elon is a good man. He just wants to save you the trouble of upgrading from hw3 -> hw4 -> hw5, and go directly to hw5 with birds eye view. /s

I will make a (possibly futile) plea to everyone, to please not start a Sticky Wiki thread
"HW5: Anticipation and Discussion"

 

[DL_Mike]

Your best case scenario is they refund your FSD portion of the purchase, possibly with interest, if you take them to court. Class action may also provide some financial relief, but the payout is usually less per participant, with the lawyers making most.

No chance would I settle for FSD portion plus interest. I paid for a car that can do FSD, much like someone paid for a car that can do all wheel drive. If you can't deliver, take back the car so I can get one that actually delivers what is advertised.

When the time comes, ether max damages lawsuit in small claims or higher (with a lawyer) in superior court.