davidc18
Active Member
For a while can mean many things in Elon speak. Just thinking out loud that given the chance to go to say 130 on the battery will be an easy way to keep the top line price on the MS/MX well north of 100k+.
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@davidc18, I would have predicted the same if Elon hadn't said twice that they will stop at 100 kWh for a while.
16 Sep 2016: Elon Musk on Twitter
07 Feb 2017: Elon Musk on Twitter
I would love to see people making better predictions than I do. If somebody wants to challenge my predictions, check out the list of the things I predicted in the following topic. There is a link to a spreadsheet in the opening message:
Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
Do you really think the Lucid Air will make it to production of more than a few hundred hand built units? The company that is backing them is selling off real estate, they don't have a factory, and they don't have fast charging infrastructure. The car looks amazing, but I can't see it happening. Tesla got a head start with a cheap factory, second hand presses and government loans. Without all those ingredients making the perfect storm, Tesla wouldn't have survived past the pipe dream stage.I still believe there will be bigger packs than 100 when a change to 2170 cells begins. Musk is hardly going to come out and say that there will be a bigger pack around the corner, eg, don't buy now. lucid is going to be offering 130 packs, so I see no reason to stop at 100. I agree that their is a point of deminiahing returns however, 130 is getting near the limit of what makes sense. Remember that the S is going to more than likely move more upmarket once the 3 is realeased, it needs to if it wants to compete with the lucid air and whatever the Germans have coming up in the next few years.
Do you really think the Lucid Air will make it to production of more than a few hundred hand built units? The company that is backing them is selling off real estate, they don't have a factory, and they don't have fast charging infrastructure. The car looks amazing, but I can't see it happening. Tesla got a head start with a cheap factory, second hand presses and government loans. Without all those ingredients making the perfect storm, Tesla wouldn't have survived past the pipe dream stage.
1. Tesla offered the 60kWh option to lower the base price to attract new customers that couldn't or wouldn't spend the $ on a 75kWh Model S
2. But they didn't get more Model S customers. They got the same customers, spending less on battery but more on options (hence "equivalent to 75kWh")
Tesla just sent out an email with slightly different wording:
"the majority of Tesla customers prefer to own the price equivalent of a Model S with 75 kWh battery or higher"
which supports the theory that even though most 60 buyers don't upgrade to 75, they do spend at least as much as a 75 costs, so Tesla does not think they are getting new owners with the artificially low price of a 75 sold as a 60. So they have no reason to give away all of that battery for free. Yes, a C class costs less than an S class, at both the bottom and top ends. But there is still plenty of overlap, just like every other auto maker. Get an C class with all the options (including AMG and convertible), and it's well over $100k.
This new wording implies that people's car preference is based on price. They seem to think that a guy who bought a base S60D would be just as happy with S75 (non-D) because it's price is about the same. I think marketing is hitting the sauce early this Friday.
Here is the next idea, why bother making P100D at all, just sell the customer a $140K "S75!" with gold plated exclamation that signifies you bought every single available option including the super exclusive "!". Win-win, right, customer wanted $140K car and got one, Tesla margins soar, someone in marketing gets a promotion!Yep...I recently met a few junior folks in that department and walked away saying wow, just wow.
Are you going to publish the results of the participants in your polls ?It turns out those were not bad at all.