Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[Tigers]

I would definitely feel better with the radar there as an additional input. I am fine without lidar (though space x used it to dock with ISS). However, I really don’t understand how the cameras can accurately identify distance by themselves and we know the ultrasonic sensors have a) very limited distance and b) aren’t terribly accurate. Removing radar would seem to make the SW updates harder too as you have even more variations of hardware in the wild.

Estimated delivery “-“.

Hardware 4 (which I believe the model s will ship with) does 4d, all the spacial + time. That's how it will tell distance, depth, and the movement or lack thereof of objects.

@omarsultan

 

[omarsultan]

Hardware 4 (which I believe the model s will ship with) does 4d, all the spacial + time. That's how it will tell distance, depth, and the movement or lack thereof of objects.

@omarsultan

I thought that too, but here we are with "we don't need no stinking' radar" so maybe something changed? Perhaps they fork the sensor suite then? HW3 and below are vision-only and HW4+ will be vision+4D radar? If that is the case, there is gonna be a *sugar* storm, I can understand why Elon is avoiding talking about it.

 

[MarcG]

If they get rid of the radar, I will miss the ability for AP to know when the car in front of the car directly in front of me brakes hard, and the person behind them reacts late, but AP is able to “see” that with radar and anticipates braking more smoothly and earlier. Can’t really do that with vision only, if the vehicle directly in front is large enough and blocks visibility of cars in front of it.

 

[Laddcruzer]

That's literally what's listed for a new order on their website - 10-14 weeks. That's what my order says, from my order date. I think it's wayy off the mark. Just a random time period the sales rep decided to throw at you.

Interesting article regarding the delays, By TOM KRISHER AP Auto Writer.

Elon Musk Statement on Tesla Production raises questions

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is once again drawing scrutiny for questionable comments he made to Wall Street analysts, this time involving the status of his company’s vehicle production.
On a Jan. 27 conference call to discuss Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings, Musk stated that the company was producing new versions of its oldest models, the S sedan and X large SUV. He added that a “Plaid” high-performance version of the electric S would be available in February.
Experts say the disparity between Musk’s statement to analysts and the figures that showed zero production risks drawing the attention of Musk’s longtime nemesis, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
“I think he might have himself into a bit of trouble with the SEC,” said Anthony Sabino, an attorney and law professor at St. John’s University. “These are fairly direct statements. They are fairly unequivocal.”
John C. Coffee Jr., a Columbia University professor who is a leading authority on securities law and corporate governance, said Musk’s assertion sounded like a statement of fact and not merely a projection of Tesla’s future production. If the SEC agrees, Coffee said, it could initiate an inquiry.
There is no doubt that Musk stated on the conference call that Tesla was producing the Models S and X.
"We’re super excited to announce the new Model S and Model X Plaid are in production now and will be delivered in February,” Musk said on the call. “So we have been able to bring forward the Plaid Model S and X – Model S will be delivered in February and Model X a little later. The Model S Plaid, we’re actually in production now, and we’ll be delivering next month.”
Even if Musk’s assertion is protected by disclaimers about production estimates, legal experts say they expect the SEC to at least look into the matter and perhaps open an investigation.
Frenkel said much hinges on whether the SEC finds Musk’s statements to be “material” — that is, something a reasonable investor would find important in deciding whether to trade a company’s shares.
“Production disclosures could be considered material,” Frenkel said.
On the Jan. 27 conference call, Tesla’s chief financial officer, Zachary Kirkhorn, echoed Musk, saying the company was producing S and X models, though Kirkhorn cautioned that the output would be low because of the transition to new versions.
Kirkhorn added that the company was trying to manage a global shortage of semiconductors — a shortage that has bedeviled the entire auto industry, forcing many automakers to cut production. Some analysts have attributed Tesla’s zero S and X production to the chip shortage.
“One cannot disclaim away a false statement or omission to disclose a material fact,” Frenkel said. “Otherwise, it would give no credibility to corporate disclosures.”

 

[mytes]

not only is there now no delivery date on the Canada order web site, the deposit has gone from $2,500 to $100. as it has on the US site

 

[mytes]

Which means
A; they have so many orders that they don’t know when they would be able to deliver new orders

Or
B; they will not have any cars at all for a long time but don’t want to tell all those with the refundable 2,500 deposits as those would most all be cancelled and they would have to refund.

 

[EyeDocRob]

Which means
A; they have so many orders that they don’t know when they would be able to deliver new orders

Or
B; they will not have any cars at all for a long time but don’t want to tell all those with the refundable 2,500 deposits as those would most all be cancelled and they would have to refund.

My vote is B

 

[cascadilla]

US site still has ETA of 10-14 weeks

 

[jeffdom1978]

Well I'm pissed! I ordered January and now it says July! WTF! Mine said March before.

 

[Nappypapi]

Still holding out hope this means i still may get it sooner than july

 

[aerodyne]

If they have removed the radar, the car won't be able to see under the car in front of it, which has saved me from an accident before, as the alert sounded and the EBS came on just as my foot was pushing the brake.

I can imagine removing radar was an ultimatum from musk. I can also imagine a software engineer is somewhere venting about disastrous effects on safety, a la Jim Cramers meltdown on air 12 years ago.

"They have no idea, none, how bad it is"

 

[ChrisOtt]

Which means
A; they have so many orders that they don’t know when they would be able to deliver new orders

Or
B; they will not have any cars at all for a long time but don’t want to tell all those with the refundable 2,500 deposits as those would most all be cancelled and they would have to refund.

It’s not just the S/X, so it’s probably more they just want the non-refundable deposits instead of refunding cancelled orders.

 

[reddy]

Still holding out hope this means i still may get it sooner than july

Mine is like yours, a mid December reservation starting with RN11431.

Not having “July” attached to the reservation seems to indicate Tesla hopes it will be sooner than that. Like everyone else , I‘ve called my SC and I was told to expect May, and a VIN should come 3 weeks before delivery here in Texas.

 

[brunla]

I have an RN1141 (ordered late October 2020) and my account still says "we will reach out to you". No month or timeframe. At one point it said Feb 15th-March 15th. I'm really wondering if the "we will reach out to you" people could get them at anytime since no month listed.

 

[Nappypapi]

I have an RN1141 (ordered late October 2020) and my account still says "we will reach out to you". No month or timeframe. At one point it said Feb 15th-March 15th. I'm really wondering if the "we will reach out to you" people could get them at anytime since no month listed.

Yeah i had feb - march timeframe first before it disappearing

 

[Fred42]

Karen, who used to be a frequent poster here, doesn't support the no-radar decision.

He seems to feel that self-driving should need no better sensors than humans use to self-drive - ignoring that (despite the fact that our eye "sensors" are actually pretty amazing), the human brain is, and will for the foreseeable future remain, a *vastly* superior processing and reasoning device than any AP computer. AP needs any leg-up it can get.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380842316282355718

 

[Ohmster]

Which means
A; they have so many orders that they don’t know when they would be able to deliver new orders

Or
B; they will not have any cars at all for a long time but don’t want to tell all those with the refundable 2,500 deposits as those would most all be cancelled and they would have to refund.

B is unlikely. $2.5k deposits on an S? Is there such a thing? They are all at $100 now are they not? My Plaid+ was $1k which I understand and am fine with especially considering the same configuration today is $12.5k more than my reservation/order.

 

[Laddcruzer]

I have an RN1141 (ordered late October 2020) and my account still says "we will reach out to you". No month or timeframe. At one point it said Feb 15th-March 15th. I'm really wondering if the "we will reach out to you" people could get them at anytime since no month listed.

My order was originally placed at the end of January for a MSLR and showed Feb/March also until I modified it to a Plaid and then went to “we will reach out to you”. It remains that way.

 

[dlfjed]

Yeah i had feb - march timeframe first before it disappearing

I am late October with an RN1140. Original delivery 2/15

 

[doubleshot]

B is unlikely. $2.5k deposits on an S? Is there such a thing? They are all at $100 now are they not? My Plaid+ was $1k which I understand and am fine with especially considering the same configuration today is $12.5k more than my reservation/order.

I think the original post this is referring to about the $2.5k deposits was in Canada and just changed to $100