Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[Robotpedlr]

The thought of them calling the refresh a 2022, since it is delayed would definitely help. Make us feel like we are actually getting an “early” 22 instead of a very late 21. Especially true since they already had some pre-refresh 2021 models released. This would avoid confusion.

Come on Elon throw us a bone.

 

[omarsultan]

im just hoping Tesla doesnt continue slashing the price of model S in future.

Given their prior history, I would not bet on it

 

[Tigers]

@1020hp

To be totally honest - the performance versions, by far, of Teslas depreciate well beyond the base models. It isn't close.

Go and look at performance model s or x depreciation. Its going to be painful, because the plaid plus is going to be a much better car and is only $20k more. That $20k after a few years might turn in to $5-10k more. Who on earth would buy a plaid vs a paid plus for that small amount of difference? I'm still shocked they even offered a plaid (I think they did it for underlying reasons).


My lr model 3 depreciated 15% in one year, which isn't bad at all considering it had a slight damage, 25k miles, the new model 3 had a $2k price cut, a new interior and a new battery pack size with 10% more range.
The market for long range is much larger as well, as most people aren't going to care about the (actually less than 1 second) difference to 60.

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from buying it but I assume if you are, losing tens of thousands in depreciation won't be the end of the world for you. Personally, I'd only go with the plaid+ though as the features and value are going to be obvious vs the base model s in a year.

I'm expecting my long range Model S to lose 15% or so on average for the 2-3 years I'll own it. Quite confident that I'll be able to sell it for $40-50k in 2023 or 2024.

That's assuming, of course, it gets delivered before then.

 

[MC3OZ]

LR 3.1-> Plaid 1.99-> plaid plus <1.99 whatever that means.
Plaid plus over plaid makes sense for huge range gains but not otherwise.
Plaid plus actually is the best bargain given the range and speed/horsepower- but I can’t wait till 2022
So will settle with Plaid

Apart from speed, we need to see if Plaid drive delivers any other advantages, these may be:-

• Torque Steering
• More efficient cruising at higher speeds.
• Ability to do repeated fast laps on a track.

I'm not sure if that affects the depreciation schedule, but it may impact on owner enjoyment.

I think there may be some "secret sauce" in Plaid that we don't currently know about.

 

[1020hp]

@1020hp

To be totally honest - the performance versions, by far, of Teslas depreciate well beyond the base models. It isn't close.

Go and look at performance model s or x depreciation. Its going to be painful, because the plaid plus is going to be a much better car and is only $20k more. That $20k after a few years might turn in to $5-10k more. Who on earth would buy a plaid vs a paid plus for that small amount of difference? I'm still shocked they even offered a plaid (I think they did it for underlying reasons).


My lr model 3 depreciated 15% in one year, which isn't bad at all considering it had a slight damage, 25k miles, the new model 3 had a $2k price cut, a new interior and a new battery pack size with 10% more range.
The market for long range is much larger as well, as most people aren't going to care about the (actually less than 1 second) difference to 60.

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from buying it but I assume if you are, losing tens of thousands in depreciation won't be the end of the world for you. Personally, I'd only go with the plaid+ though as the features and value are going to be obvious vs the base model s in a year.

I'm expecting my long range Model S to lose 15% or so on average for the 2-3 years I'll own it. Quite confident that I'll be able to sell it for $40-50k in 2023 or 2024.

That's assuming, of course, it gets delivered before then.

Lot of assumptions here based on past history here. You may be right. Will Do what fits my budget knowing it’s not an investment. I drove my 911 for 4 years and sold for 10K less than I bought it for.

 

[eipi10]

@1020hp

To be totally honest - the performance versions, by far, of Teslas depreciate well beyond the base models. It isn't close.

Go and look at performance model s or x depreciation. Its going to be painful, because the plaid plus is going to be a much better car and is only $20k more. That $20k after a few years might turn in to $5-10k more. Who on earth would buy a plaid vs a paid plus for that small amount of difference? I'm still shocked they even offered a plaid (I think they did it for underlying reasons).


My lr model 3 depreciated 15% in one year, which isn't bad at all considering it had a slight damage, 25k miles, the new model 3 had a $2k price cut, a new interior and a new battery pack size with 10% more range.
The market for long range is much larger as well, as most people aren't going to care about the (actually less than 1 second) difference to 60.

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from buying it but I assume if you are, losing tens of thousands in depreciation won't be the end of the world for you. Personally, I'd only go with the plaid+ though as the features and value are going to be obvious vs the base model s in a year.

I'm expecting my long range Model S to lose 15% or so on average for the 2-3 years I'll own it. Quite confident that I'll be able to sell it for $40-50k in 2023 or 2024.

That's assuming, of course, it gets delivered before then.

You‘re assuming there really is such a thing as a ”plaid+” and it will be delivered in mid 2022. There is no reason to trust Tesla on this.

 

[1020hp]

Given their prior history, I would not bet on it

Not betting on it neither buying to recuperate most at time of sale... but I do think previously Tesla had more reasons to slash prices- tri motor is new tech and much superior performance numbers to any other rivals. Plaid plus will be a class on its own “if” it ever comes out. To me it will take years for others to catch up performance numbers, technology and range Tesla offers. Model 3 is cheap and their high demand vehicle- model S will never be model 3 neither Tesla would try to continue slashing prices on their new model S to meet model 3 demand numbers. So until rivals come up with similar or better tech “in cheaper
Prices” I don’t see Tesla repeating history in the new model S with newer technology.
again that’s my opinion. Only time will tell. But I’m not buying for those reasons. Excited to enjoy high tech FSD car with performance of a hyper car...

 

[ks1972]

I could be wrong, but I would bet that the Plaid with 1,020 HP may have a slightly higher residual value and trade-in/retail value after 2-3 years than the MS LR, being that the higher power (current "fastest production vehicle on the planet" although that will change when the Plaid+ arrives), tri-motor MS Plaid is a bit more "special" than the base MS LR and therefore, more sought after in the used/trade-in market. So, it may hold its value a little better. Any thoughts?

You would be wrong IMO

 

[Drew-MS]

LR 3.1-> Plaid 1.99-> plaid plus <1.99 whatever that means.
Plaid plus over plaid makes sense for huge range gains but not otherwise.
Plaid plus actually is the best bargain given the range and speed/horsepower- but I can’t wait till 2022
So will settle with Plaid

Same here, I canceled the plaid plus for a plaid. I’m still waiting to see even 1 video of a plaid doing 155mph in the 1/4 (yawn.) Not even 1 acceleration video posted of the hyper 9 sec EV. It’s starting to get a little weird.

 

[Ohmster]

Rapid technological progress comes with rapid price declines. The new 4680 battery will come at a great premium and then trickle down to the whole fleet with no added cost. Unfortunately, it’s inevitable!

True that. However, Elon specifically stated the 4680's would not be on the LR or Plaid for a few years yet. Capacity constraints. They will go to CT, Semi, Roadster, and Plaid+ presumably. So yes, it will drop, but you will have to wait for it.

 

[omarsultan]

To me it will take years for others to catch up performance numbers, technology and range Tesla offers.

For 8 or so years, that has been a safely true statement, but I think those days seem numbered. Lucid and Porsche are ~0.5 sec behind theoretical Plaid+ performance and you can expect the announced AMG EV to be a performance beast. While a 0.5 sec gap is formidable with ICE engineering, I think it is less so with EV engineering. And it appears like Lucid will beat Tesla to market with a 500 mile sedan by something like 6-12 months.

The one sustained advantage Tesla has is their vertical integration which can give them pricing advantage.

 

[David_Cary]

Right - at some point, building a blindingly fast EV is relatively easy. The legacy manufacturers have always had you pay dearly for speed - bundling with things like upgraded interiors, suspension packages, etc.
EV changes the dynamic and at some point, the other manufacturers will realize they need to shift their pricing models.
But remember, that Tesla is so far behind on the fit/finish, QC, service experience than the legacy manufacturers don't have to be moving that quickly. People will gladly pay more for a Porsche that is slower.
Lucid is another animal - but then trusting a new manufacturer with near $100k of your money is a leap that I know I wouldn't make....

 

[cascadilla]

Inspection day! Hopefully, by the end of today, the MSMX Bus Bar will be signed off on, and they can start churnin’ out cars.

 

[Tigers]

You‘re assuming there really is such a thing as a ”plaid+” and it will be delivered in mid 2022. There is no reason to trust Tesla on this.

Yep, you're right. The Plaid (err, Plaid+, again, shows you that they just made what is called "Plaid" now up out of the blue so they can say they did in fact launch the plaid) is currently looking at a 2 to 2.5 year delay from the original timeline Elon gave in 2019. Pretty insane, let's you see how far off the 4680s are. Everyone thinks the model y in berlin is going to get them at the end of the year. no tri motor cybertruck this year either.

Back a little closer to topic, I was thinking last night that they have been modifying their initial model s refresh design for the first part of this year. Extremely odd that they are taking a car to a wind tunnel so late in the game. I bet they heard the EQS was more slippery, so they are trying to make small adjustments to beat them.

IDK - but the more I think about it, the more I think that they purposely stopped production to change the design (but not necessarily things you can see) to make the car more competitive first.

Or, I'm full of *sugar* and Elon truly is that inept at keeping things on schedule.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

Yep, you're right. The Plaid (err, Plaid+, again, shows you that they just made what is called "Plaid" now up out of the blue so they can say they did in fact launch the plaid) is currently looking at a 2 to 2.5 year delay from the original timeline Elon gave in 2019. Pretty insane, let's you see how far off the 4680s are. Everyone thinks the model y in berlin is going to get them at the end of the year. no tri motor cybertruck this year either.

Back a little closer to topic, I was thinking last night that they have been modifying their initial model s refresh design for the first part of this year. Extremely odd that they are taking a car to a wind tunnel so late in the game. I bet they heard the EQS was more slippery, so they are trying to make small adjustments to beat them.

IDK - but the more I think about it, the more I think that they purposely stopped production to change the design (but not necessarily things you can see) to make the car more competitive first.

Or, I'm full of *sugar* and Elon truly is that inept at keeping things on schedule.

To your last point - we all agree you are full of *sugar*

Not sure they are sophisticated enough for a conspiracy.

 

[dlfjed]

What if 10 people want a Blue Long Range and they have produced 5. How do they decide who gets them? There must be some kind of queue.

Follow the money. Those 5 will go to wherever they can get them paid in full ASAP. They may take into account factors that would reduce delivery costs. Ultimately I believe priority is based on money in the bank not when ordered. BTW. RN 1140. Located in NY. So I’m in the 9 or 10 range in your example if I’m lucky.

 

[dlfjed]

Found this on A tesla owners Facebook.
“As a Tesla engineer I’ve personally driven and worked on the New Long range as well as the Plaid itself and all I can say is we stepped up our game on both the interior design as well as the body itself. Not only is the range there the with the updated interior you will be able to feel the difference”
This was followed by a barrage of questions still unanswered.
Fact or Fiction?

 

[jaguar36]

Found this on A tesla owners Facebook.
“As a Tesla engineer I’ve personally driven and worked on the New Long range as well as the Plaid itself and all I can say is we stepped up our game on both the interior design as well as the body itself. Not only is the range there the with the updated interior you will be able to feel the difference”
This was followed by a barrage of questions still unanswered.
Fact or Fiction?

Fiction. The interior looks barely changed from the existing S (besides for the obvious screen rotation). The range is also functionally the same.

 

[cascadilla]

“As a Tesla engineer I’ve personally driven and worked on the New Long range as well as the Plaid itself and all I can say is we stepped up our game on both the interior design as well as the body itself. Not only is the range there the with the updated interior you will be able to feel the difference”
This was followed by a barrage of questions still unanswered.
Fact or Fiction?

this would violate workplace nda’s at most tech firms with pr departments. tesla doesn’t have a pr department, but i doubt it’s that different.

 

[Tigers]

this would violate workplace nda’s at most tech firms with pr departments. tesla doesn’t have a pr department, but i doubt it’s that different.

Not sure what they said that Tesla would have an issue with - they did not give any details other than whats already available online (oh, our new interior is great!)...don't think Elon would fire them for that.