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Wiki Model S Delivery Update

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Tesla's Master of Coin said that the S/X program added $200M to Tesla's headwind in Q1, and that is not counting lost revenue...

Musk said making a prototype car is child's play, but making a production car is really, really difficult. He said that Tesla is the only US car company in the last 100 years which didn't go into bankrupt reaching volume production. Talk about pain and anguish.
Tesla’s master of coin, Technoking of Tesla..😂 you can’t make this stuff up. I thought it was a joke lol
 
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I just want to see large amounts of actual customer cars come pumping out the factory and lining up in the parking lot. When that happens I will at least have hope my car is coming at some point. Until I see actual production cars, in large numbers, coming out of that factory, I do not believe any estimates or bull that is coming from these calls. Given Tesla's history on hitting delivery dates it could be a month a year or longer till we actual customer cars produced. I will believe it when I see it.
 
They did well on MY, beating estimates.

Why so hard on the MX and MY?
MY was built on M3 platform.

Remember it has only been 4 months since the MS line was stopped. They clearly underestimated the difficulties of the new MS ramp-up. The global chip shortage didn't help. They need new chips for the PS5 level infotainment system, a new display with associated chips, a way to handle the much higher power of the Plaid, a new interior, new battery packs, and so on. If they ship in May, that is quite an achievement.
 
MY was built on M3 platform.

Remember it has only been 4 months since the MS line was stopped. They clearly underestimated the difficulties of the new MS ramp-up. The global chip shortage didn't help. They need new chips for the PS5 level infotainment system, a new display with associated chips, a way to handle the much higher power of the Plaid, a new interior, new battery packs, and so on. If they ship in May, that is quite an achievement.
No ones arguing with how hard it is to refresh. The issue is Elon blatantly lied in January about production being underway unless his definition of production is starting to think about how to refresh the S and X. And he’s not forthcoming with timing now either. Just say a real date and stick to it.
 
No ones arguing with how hard it is to refresh. The issue is Elon blatantly lied in January about production being underway unless his definition of production is starting to think about how to refresh the S and X. And he’s not forthcoming with timing now either. Just say a real date and stick to it.
Actually many have implied it's easy to refresh. After all "all they did was rotate the screen". Come on now, they didn't start to think about how to refresh the car in January. They had a design and a plan and if everything was a-ok it would have happened. Obviously something wasn't as planned. Have you ever developed and delivered a product? There is no such this as a real date, just probabilities that play out.
 
If the Mercedes EQS is out before the MS Plaid there is a high probability I will be getting it. I love the power in my current Model S, however I lease short term, and I will be happy to drive the Mercedes and get the new S Plaid + when and if it is ever completed.
The EQS and Plaid are very different cars. You probably chose plaid instead of LR because of the performance. The EQS looks nice but not a performance car. Maybe Taycan Turbo S makes more sense 👍.
edit: I thought about doing this myself but I’ll just wait for the plaid.
 
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Alright, Bullsugerers and your imaginary friends.

Here's what I heard:

Elon pushed the team to launch model s in Feb before it was ready, catastrophic failure related to the battery pack and probably tons of other bugs/issues allowed his team to convince him otherwise.

He didn't sound very confident all bugs have been addressed or worked out at all. He definitely gave us another Elon timeline. If we see deliveries before June or July, I'll be stunned.

I am now concerned about the car blowing up in the garage, however.

Also, everything else delayed it seems, no surprise there. So in other words, another tesla earnings call.
 
Today was confirmation that I will absolutely delay/defer delivery from whatever happens to be my first VIN assignment (maybe August?).

One of the MAIN reasons I ordered the MS was that they’d figured out all the production kinks and the model S wasn’t cranking out the *sugar* product we were seeing in M3/MY back in December. No way in hell I’m putting $90k into all these ‘challenges’ that they’re running into.

I’ll wait until they sort out all the ‘production hell’ problems. And that’s a shame because the competition may look VERY different by the time they get that all figured out & I may land with a non-Tesla vehicle (unlikely, because charging infrastructure is so far behind for everyone else).

Looking like a 2022 MS LR for me.
 
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Ordered late October 2020. The only thing I have been told since then that turned out to be true is that I could cancel my order or pay over 40% more for the car I had on order already. The best chance to make it right has come and gone with no more information than the day he announced the refresh. I’ve waited years to do this. At this point I feel I’ve made an agreement with an arrogant child.
 
My summary is that there was precious little insight into the reasons for the delay, and what was provided is disturbing, and no assurance that the root causes such as battery problems have been resolved.

The delivery forecast always seems to be, next month.

This call seemed to be the most random ever, with rambling answers, or sometimes none at all to the question posed.

I got a roof rack I never installed. I'll bet I can gin up a space x package and a camper shell before the plaid and CT come out. Look at what Simone Gertz did with Trukla...
The Truckla is ridiculous. Woe unto anyone in it when it has an accident.
 
The EQS and Plaid are very different cars. You probably chose plaid instead of LR because of the performance. The EQS looks nice but not a performance car. Maybe Taycan Turbo S makes more sense 👍.
edit: I thought about doing this myself but I’ll just wait for the plaid.
Exactly, and even by today's EV standards, the MB EQS is slow. It is posh inside and that's the point...that's what MB is purely going for in this EV segment with the EQS...pure luxury, high tech, and very good efficiency and max battery range. But until the AMG version arrives, it's not much of a "competitor" to the MS LR or Plaid as far as I'm concerned. Not to mention it's butt-ugly from the outside. And please understand that I love AMG's...drove one for > 93k miles...loved my AMG but at least the first iteration of this new MB EQS...meh, no thank you...I'll pass on that for > $100k.
 
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Have you ever developed and delivered a product?
Actually, yes.

There is no such this as a real date, just probabilities that play out.
That is not how it works. If your committed dates are meaningless, you will not be around long. The same as true for pizzerias as it is for $30B corporations. What you definitely shouldn't do is tell the world your product is in production and deliveries start next month when you have not even built one of your product.

they didn't start to think about how to refresh the car in January.
Probably not, but it kinda feels like it right now.
 
Just a little off topic here but I'm a bit confused on the TSLA earnings report...crushed the numbers, beat analysts estimates and yet the stock slid > $18 after hours...thoughts as to why (besides the ambiguity on MS LR & Plaid production & deliveries)? btw - my account still says July.
From what I've seen, the correlation between positive earnings and stock performance, particularly in the moments immediately preceding and following announced earnings, has been ridiculously disconnected over the past few quarters. My guess is that the good news was already priced in with today's open 3.5% up from close on Friday. The slide after hours puts the stock right where it opened on Friday, and it'll probably continue to trade in the same channel it's been in for the past two months.

To add another data point to the "orders and deliveries" conversation, I placed my order for a solid black/black interior LR with FSD on April 13. Delivery estimate still reflects 10-14 weeks, giving a June 22 - July 20 delivery window that I anticipate will be missed. By how much is the lingering question...
 
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