Model S range and interior update imminent?

[AnxietyRanger]

Rumours are just that. Rumours. Remember that people. No basis in fact and only opinions!

Existence of the rumors of a refresh is not an opinion, though, it is a fact. We have very particular claims of insider information, actually.

It is also possible that the alleged insider infromation within the rumors is factual, though this is of course uncertain. It is also possible the alleged insider information is made up, incorrect or outdated.

What comes down to opinion is what uncertain information we choose to believe or to entertain, and what not.

Whether we see refresh or not, driving a Tesla still brings a smile to my face every single day.

Perhaps, but that is wholly irrelevant for someone considering buying a new car today and worried about their smile being impacted by a product change very soon after they take delivery. I agree that it is easy to smile when driving a Tesla that is already here, and in my case has been for a year, but I wouldn't feel the same if I was timing a purchase today. I'd (rightfully for me) worry about my emotions should the car get a major refresh very shortly after I've taken delivery. For me, I know it would be a bummer.

Those who don't care, of course, are free from this emotional baggage to buy whenever.

 

[sandpiper]

The problem is “bits and pieces” eventually becomes a duct taped mess. I’m not saying the S is there, but at a certain point, you need a clean slate. Case in point, look at the center console on a new Model S. That was an incremental update to the yacht floor. But the edge of the console does’t line up with that cubby under the screen. The angles and materials are off and don’t match. (Don’t even get me started on that cubby. When a $100,000 car needs a drawer made on Etsy so everything doesn’t fall out, that’s a problem.)

By comparison, look at the same area of the Model 3. It flows perfectly. The dock is in a better position. The aesthetics and functionality are superior in every way.

You can’t just incrementally change the vents or even add a comparable dual phone dock without more elaborate modifications. You can update the screen/MCU but do they want to keep the exact location and form factor for years or would it be a stopgap? I really hope a full interior refresh is coming sooner than later on the S... however, as others have said, the extended free supercharging makes it less likely before April. Hopefully, we saw some of the design cues on the new Roadster.

Exactly. At a certain point you need to stop with the duct tape and just rebuild it. We're there.

 

[The Duke]

Remember the VW Beetle? The XKE Jag? Many years of the same body style but the original car paled in comparison to the last versions. We don't need a clean slate, what Tesla is doing is correct - fix the problems.
The Model S came out in 2012, should make at least 10 years with incremental updates. No point in starting all over again.

 

[iffatall]

In my opinion, anyone buying a Model S, who wants to use it for longer than 3-4 years should wait for a refresh (interior refresh at least, if not battery refresh) if they can help it - even if the wait is for a year.

Whether based on facts or not, the rumors are certainly based on logic. Small incremental updates may be happen every few months, but bigger changes like introduction of D, AP, AP2 are major steps forward. If I am going to drive an expensive car for several years, I don't want it to be outdated by a major update in the first year of ownership.

I bought my car almost a year before AP was introduced, and I often ponder if I should have waited. I wouldn't call it a regret because it was my first car, and I could not have waited a year. But had that not been the case, I would have really really regretted it.

Side Note: One thing I am not a fan of in M3 interior, is the screen. Probably I am in the minority, but I dislike a console that looks like a panel is simply attached to the dash. I like screens that are better integrated, like in MS, and really feel like part of the car. Before M3 came out, I used to always criticize other cars having such consoles where it looked like you just got a small TV (or a big tablet) and put it on the dash - wondering why almost no one other then Tesla "gets it". A tablet needs a bezel. A TV needs a bezel. A screen in the car does not need a bezel. The car is the bezel. The screen is not an afterthought. It is an integral part of the car like seats. But alas, even Tesla went that way. Hope they don't copy it to MS.

 

[evster]

The new website is really the proof that there are no updates coming soon to neither the exterior or interior. There are LOT'S of details described in the new website with images and other media assets. Not a chance that Tesla would have spent all the funds creating this at this point in time if a refresh to either interior or exterior would be in the near future. So this almost seal the deal that any major changes will not be introduced during 2018.

A bit OT, but interesting that they now included in the tech specs that the cars have "unlimited free supercharging" using referral. Maybe another sign showing that free supercharging will be extended after April 30 to have a perk for X/S owners vs. the Model 3.

 

[Cincinnatus]

The new website is really the proof that there are no updates coming soon to neither the exterior or interior. There are LOT'S of details described in the new website with images and other media assets. Not a chance that Tesla would have spent all the funds creating this at this point in time if a refresh to either interior or exterior would be in the near future. So this almost seal the deal that any major changes will not be introduced during 2018.

A bit OT, but interesting that they now included in the tech specs that the cars have "unlimited free supercharging" using referral. Maybe another sign showing that free supercharging will be extended after April 30 to have a perk for X/S owners vs. the Model 3.

An interesting point, but all things considered, images and scripts are cheap.

 

[evster]

An interesting point, but all things considered, images and scripts are cheap.

Thanks!
Agree that images etc are cheap, but Tesla have not updated the web site for ages with new images. We have for example seen the old "Next gen" seats in the Model S description page and they were discontinued over a year ago.
As always, this is just a guess, but I would be very surprised if we see any updates to the S/X before end of this year as the earliest.

 

[Cincinnatus]

Thanks!
Agree that images etc are cheap, but Tesla have not updated the web site for ages with new images. We have for example seen the old "Next gen" seats in the Model S description page and they were discontinued over a year ago.
As always, this is just a guess, but I would be very surprised if we see any updates to the S/X before end of this year as the earliest.

Didn’t know the old seats were still advertised on their product page for so long! That is a bit odd...so much for keeping up with their incremental improvements. Any speculation then that we’ll see Model S ‘2.0’ roll out the back of a Model Y? The company has already played the ‘one more thing’ card during the semi event, maybe we’ll see it again.

 

[verygreen]

btw, I was looking into some firmware code yesterday for unrelated reasons and stumbled upon mentioning of a refreshed MCU for S and X what it looks like. According to that bit of code, it's x86 based just like Model 3 (and is likely pretty much the same board with a different screen(s)).

The code was added in 17.50.x

 

[evster]

btw, I was looking into some firmware code yesterday for unrelated reasons and stumbled upon mentioning of a refreshed MCU for S and X what it looks like. According to that bit of code, it's x86 based just like Model 3 (and is likely pretty much the same board with a different screen(s)).

The code was added in 17.50.x

That is some interesting info! Could the updated MCU be in cars already produced, but not utilizing the new hardware because of software limitations? I mean if it was part of the AP2.5 update? Or is this something that probably will be added to cars from now and moving forward?

 

[verygreen]

That is some interesting info! Could the updated MCU be in cars already produced, but not utilizing the new hardware because of software limitations? I mean if it was part of the AP2.5 update? Or is this something that probably will be added to cars from now and moving forward?

No idea about that. E.g. when first HW2.5 bits appeared in firmware, it took quite some time until first model3s were unveiled, and then some more time until the same hardware materialized in model S/Xs produced.

So the only definitive information that could be gained from this is there is a replacement MCU coming eventually (there were some rumors I heard elsewhere about Tesla starting production of such units and whatnot, but those were just that - rumors).

 

[Destiny1701]

Existence of the rumors of a refresh is not an opinion, though, it is a fact. We have very particular claims of insider information, actually.

It is also possible that the alleged insider infromation within the rumors is factual, though this is of course uncertain. It is also possible the alleged insider information is made up, incorrect or outdated.

What comes down to opinion is what uncertain information we choose to believe or to entertain, and what not.



Perhaps, but that is wholly irrelevant for someone considering buying a new car today and worried about their smile being impacted by a product change very soon after they take delivery. I agree that it is easy to smile when driving a Tesla that is already here, and in my case has been for a year, but I wouldn't feel the same if I was timing a purchase today. I'd (rightfully for me) worry about my emotions should the car get a major refresh very shortly after I've taken delivery. For me, I know it would be a bummer.

Those who don't care, of course, are free from this emotional baggage to buy whenever.

I remember this thread from back in q2 2017 and that time the same ‘rumours’ of an interior refresh were just as strong. Q2 became Q3 became Q4 and now Q1, 2018 and nada.

I guess this ‘inside source’ wasn’t so inside lol. We’ve heard of everything from different owners with short and long wish lists but in the end, changes have been subtle ie. new seat design, colours, rear seat hump, discontinued alcatera...but nothing approaching a lot of the rumoured wishes ie. HUD, dash changes, steering changes, auto doors, new look, new exterior.

All we can surmise is as the model S ages, the statistical likelihood of a refresh gets nearer and more likely. Nothing more than that. What it would look like...anyone’s guess but the locked up design team at Tesla

The only fact one can count on in a typical 6-7 yr refresh of an entire model based on traditional automotive manufacturing processes. In that case a 2012 model S would be due for a full refresher for 2019..IF Tesla even subscribed to that timeline. They may not and we could be looking at 2020+. Or we could all be pleasantly surprised for 2018/19.

However I would assume Tesla is concentrating on it’s production hell with M3 at the moment to give too much thought to SX. The M3 will make or break Tesla...not the SX. If M3 fails...well...I’d prefer Tesla not become the Delorean of advanced vehicles! Not a fact again...opinion

 

[avesraggiana]

I’d prefer Tesla not become the Delorean of advanced vehicles! Not a fact again...opinion

My latest recurring nightmare: NEWSFLASH! ELON MUSK ARRESTED FOR COCAINE POSSESSION!

For those of us old enough to remember the benighted John DeLorean.

 

[Brettski]

The new website is really the proof that there are no updates coming soon to neither the exterior or interior. There are LOT'S of details described in the new website with images and other media assets. Not a chance that Tesla would have spent all the funds creating this at this point in time if a refresh to either interior or exterior would be in the near future. So this almost seal the deal that any major changes will not be introduced during 2018.

A bit OT, but interesting that they now included in the tech specs that the cars have "unlimited free supercharging" using referral. Maybe another sign showing that free supercharging will be extended after April 30 to have a perk for X/S owners vs. the Model 3.

I'm inclined to disagree that the new webdesign is "proof" that Tesla won't make changes or updates soon. My ten-year old made a pretty decent website in half an afternoon. I'm sure they could redo that in a heartbeat, and I doubt they'd have to pull their web designers off the Model 3 assembly line.

My thought on the new web pages was "finally, it looks how you'd expect a car company's website to look"

 

[evster]

I'm inclined to disagree that the new webdesign is "proof" that Tesla won't make changes or updates soon. My ten-year old made a pretty decent website in half an afternoon. I'm sure they could redo that in a heartbeat, and I doubt they'd have to pull their web designers off the Model 3 assembly line.

My thought on the new web pages was "finally, it looks how you'd expect a car company's website to look"

Agree that "Proof" was a bit of an exaggeration from my end

I think however you underestimate what has been done. Even if it's not difficult, I can't see why Tesla should do this rather extensive change just now if a big change was coming within 6 months.

You ten-year old seems like an ace! Maybe he can help out Tesla adding som simple features to the app?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I remember this thread from back in q2 2017 and that time the same ‘rumours’ of an interior refresh were just as strong. Q2 became Q3 became Q4 and now Q1, 2018 and nada.

I guess this ‘inside source’ wasn’t so inside lol. We’ve heard of everything from different owners with short and long wish lists but in the end, changes have been subtle ie. new seat design, colours, rear seat hump, discontinued alcatera...but nothing approaching a lot of the rumoured wishes ie. HUD, dash changes, steering changes, auto doors, new look, new exterior.

All we can surmise is as the model S ages, the statistical likelihood of a refresh gets nearer and more likely. Nothing more than that. What it would look like...anyone’s guess but the locked up design team at Tesla

The only fact one can count on in a typical 6-7 yr refresh of an entire model based on traditional automotive manufacturing processes. In that case a 2012 model S would be due for a full refresher for 2019..IF Tesla even subscribed to that timeline. They may not and we could be looking at 2020+. Or we could all be pleasantly surprised for 2018/19.

However I would assume Tesla is concentrating on it’s production hell with M3 at the moment to give too much thought to SX. The M3 will make or break Tesla...not the SX. If M3 fails...well...I’d prefer Tesla not become the Delorean of advanced vehicles! Not a fact again...opinion

That's where I think the difference of views mostly is in. I don't think this as a betting game, where there exists some fixed truth that we are trying to find out. Always in motion is the future, after all. The insider rumors are tidbits from moments in time that may well change later. The value of the analysis is in trying to pinpoint a range of likely scenarios at any given time, so that we can factor those into our own planning, with whatever values of certainty or risk may be relevant for us.

For example, the adaptive spoiler analysis for Model X turned out to be true - but then it was cancelled in 2017 after a little over year on the market...
Model X mules show signs of a new spoiler?

The noseconeless insider info (alias "insiderinfo") for Model X turned out to be true:
Model X mules - is the nose cone gone?

The production delays, abandonement of hydraulic doors for Model X etc. (alias Eds) turned out to be true.

On the other hand, the AP "1.5" was seen in PR photos even, but did not happen - Tesla cancelled it before launch:
Is Model X (or was?) getting an "AP 1.5" before full-autonomous "AP 2.0" suite upgrade?

So things may be right, insider sources may know things at a certain time, and then plans can change. Or, of course, insider sources may turn out to be hogwash and not insider at all.

In the case of Model S/X interior changes, there is alleged insider info that plans changed from early 2018 launch to late 2018 launch. That might well be true. Tesla may well have been tracking in Q1-Q2/2018 launch for Model S/X changes, but had to postpone then due to the Model 3 production hell taking their resources and are now tracking a Q3-Q4/2018 launch for the Model S/X refresh. (The latest specific rumors are summarized here in posts #56 and #63 as well as the rest of the thread.)

As for website updates, those may well have been planned to coincide with a Model S/X refresh as well, and simply were changed to feature non-upgraded cars instead to help the marketing of the existing cars.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I think however you underestimate what has been done. Even if it's not difficult, I can't see why Tesla should do this rather extensive change just now if a big change was coming within 6 months.

Unless this change was always meant to reflect the refreshed cars and they decided to use it with updated images/videos for the existing models instead, because the refresh was postponed by 2-3 quarters. In the end, the refreshed pages show very little that we expect to change in a refresh. A couple of different images, no front interior video notably etc...

 

[pkodali]

btw, I was looking into some firmware code yesterday for unrelated reasons and stumbled upon mentioning of a refreshed MCU for S and X what it looks like. According to that bit of code, it's x86 based just like Model 3 (and is likely pretty much the same board with a different screen(s)).

The code was added in 17.50.x

Any indication that it would fit in the same form factor as the current S/X screens?

 

[verygreen]

Any indication that it would fit in the same form factor as the current S/X screens?

No idea about that, as you can imagine, software does not really tell us much about external formfactor.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Any indication that it would fit in the same form factor as the current S/X screens?

FWIW, the specific alleged insider info rumor has been a new curved screen for Model S/X like the new Roadster.

Whether that rumor is real or is related to @verygreen's discovery is unknown of course. Then there is the interior camera in Model 3. When and in what update will Model S/X get that... or will it get it never like some speculate?