Yes, but if they end up with extra capacity wouldn't those people be able to shift into Model X production?
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Model S Reservation Tally
- Thread starter Joel
- Start date
Yes, but if they end up with extra capacity wouldn't those people be able to shift into Model X production?
Appreciate your efforts. You are far ahead of professionals who still quote the last qtr conference call number. I know your accurate as well since you pinned my reservation number on the day I made it. Do you have any handle on cancellations? Now that wait for car once reservation is made appears to be dropping to about 6-8 months instead of years the cancellation number may drop.
FalconNinetyD
Active Member
15,119 was reported on the TM forums, having reserved on the evening of 12/1. The last 17 days have seen 1198 reservations for the US, for an annualized rate of over 25,700. Sorry Europe, Canada and Asia, there will be no cars left for you 
15,119 was reported on the TM forums, having reserved on the evening of 12/1. The last 17 days have seen 1198 reservations for the US, for an annualized rate of over 25,700. Sorry Europe, Canada and Asia, there will be no cars left for you
Tongue in cheek, I know, but we're probably seeing a combination of impending price increase and COTY awards right now. Still, momentum is picking up, and the bump in $5k reservation deposits spell good news for the Q4 earnings call...
Yeah, this is interesting to analyze from a future-profits point of view. Tesla already has a high enough reservation rate to justify two shifts even if they do get a single shift up to 400 cars per week. They do not yet have a high enough reservation rate (even with model X) to justify three shifts at 400 cars per week each, but geez, at this reservation rate they could within the year. The profit margins are going to depend on whether they actually can get the rates up. So far they've been quite competent on manufacturing -- there are obviously companies which are better, but this is pretty good for a startup factory -- so I'm assuming they will do so, but it may take a while. In the meantime three shifts will help to reduce the order backlog.
In my investment analysis I no longer consider lack of demand, lack of production, lack of production quality, or low profit margins on cars to be serious possibilities. I think the risk factors are all in parts of the business other than design, manufacturing, and sales.
jstoneman
Member
Momentum IS picking up. I agree that the added visibility of the COTY awards etc and price increase has drastically sent the reservation rate up. But how are we going ever going to quantify how many reservations per day are being made because the public has started seeing the cars out and about? These are rolling advertisements and boy are they pretty. I predict that after December the reservation rate will settle down but not to the pre-COTY award levels. Thoughts?
The stores matter too for awareness. When I went to the bank to apply for pre-approval and said I was getting the Tesla Model S, she said "Oh, that's the one at the mall?"
dsmith2189
Active Member
Chatting them up now... I just ran into an old friend and mentioned that I was getting a Tesla. Response: Oh, thats the one my daughter told me about. What can you tell me. MTCOY, blah blah blah, Plugin, blah blah bla, reservation, blah blah blah, about 9 month wait, blah blah blah, Price increase blah blah blah. End of conversation was: I guess I should get one on order now...
Reservation 15 160 made this evening myself for my parents . I sold my first Model S!
from my Samsung galaxy s3
from my Samsung galaxy s3
kvietor
Model S VIN 168
So I noticed that my reservation (11k's) is for a standard Model S. I've recently developed a liking for the performance version. If and when I do get my finalize email, would I be able to configure a Model S performance? Or do I have to make another reservation for the performance Model S?
No need for a new res. When you finalize your options just select the Performance version.
Dborn
Confirmed
They may need the third shift to help cope with the non-North America orders like those from Australia and Europe....
Dborn- You might be right. It seems like US demand has risen as TM has increased production, while international demand keeps increasing as well. The question I wonder about is when Elon said they planned to achieve a production rate of 400 cars/week in December, is that based on a single work shift or multiple work shifts? I wonder what affect a third shift will have on the production rate? While it will take a few weeks to hire, train, etc, I imagine TM should be able to exceed production 400 units/week next quarter.
Same here. Although from my calculations switching to a perf for me basically puts the car over $100k in cost...lol.
| Performance Base Price Black Paint (included) Panoramic Roof 19" wheel downgrade (included) Tan leather Interior (included) Obeche Wood (included) Tech Package Sound Studio Active Air Suspension (included) Parcel Shelf 8 yr 100,000 mile Prepaid maintenance 4 yr 50,000 mile Extended Warranty Tesla Personal Delivery Tesla Final inspection/prep NJ sales tax on EV's NJ registration/doc fees | $92,400.00 $- $1,500.00 $- $- $- $3,750.00 $950.00 $- $250.00 $4,800.00 $2,500.00 $990.00 $180.00 $- $400.00 $107,720.00 |
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