Tesla Semi

[jhm]

I doubt it. There's no way to get around the energy conversion loss of turning electricity into hydrogen. There's no way to get around the embrittlement problem. Maybe in 3030 the embrittlement problem can be solved with zero energy force fields, but the energy conversion loss will always be there. Until then it's better to use the energy to directly power the cars.

To be sure, I am not at all saying that there need to be hydrogen semi trucks. I am saying, however, that the different technologies needed to make such a vehicle possible do need to be developed. We need advances in batteries, electrolyzers, and hydrogen fuel cells. I previously describe where those are more needed than in trucks. I suspect that Musk needs all these technologies for mars colonization too, but of the three he is only pursuing batteries right now.

 

[ricohman]

Dumb question here. Why does a vehicle that big not use bigger wheels? Seems like it would travel better?

Those are 19.5 commercial tires.
Nothing lasts as long or is as durable under a truck that size. My new F450 has the same size.

 

[jhm]

Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla
I'd like to keep discussion of hydrogen in the Shorting Oil thread where we plot the demise of the fossil industries. This linked post is relevant to recent discussion here.

 

[Menifeer]

Tesla Semi (an alternate perspective...)

From John Cadogan (not a fanboi)

(It's a YouTube video - an ad pops up about halfway through it - just click "skip ad" to continue)

 

[EVMeister]

Tesla Semi (an alternate perspective...)

From John Cadogan (not a fanboi)

(It's a YouTube video - an ad pops up about halfway through it - just click "skip ad" to continue)

Hint to anybody else. Before you waste your time listening to that Aussie fossil, read the description. "Not a fanboi" is an understatement. Old man who is scared of change more like.

 

[AudubonB]

Off to the Nikola event now. Any last questions...post away now and if I can read them, I will.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Off to the Nikola event now. Any last questions...post away now and if I can read them, I will.

For their H2 truck. I figure their EV truck will struggle to compete with Daimler, etc.
1. Purchase possible, or lease only?
2. If purchase, what is truck price and per kg price of H2?
3. If lease, who has signed up to provide financing?
4. Target date to deliver 1000th H2 truck? 10,000th?
5. How many H2 delivery outlets will exist the first year they deliver trucks?​

 

[abasile]

From watching the Nikola World keynote (admittedly in the background at times, as 1.5 hours is a long time on YouTube), I was surprised to learn that Nikola will be offering semi truck battery packs as large as 1 MWh! Going the H2 route will attract attention and perhaps investors, but I suspect most of their truck sales will turn out to be BEVs for economic reasons. I hope they give the Tesla Semi some good competition, as the faster diesel can be displaced, the better.

I didn't recall hearing about the nature of the charging infrastructure that Nikola intends to deploy for their BEV trucks. Do they envision something like the Tesla Megachargers, or just slower "overnight" charging?

For the record, I agree that H2 has tremendous potential for longer term energy storage, i.e., for capturing surplus solar energy during the summer and deploying it during the winter. Whether it'll make sense for trucking is another debate...

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Didn't Nikola once say something along the lines of 1MWh packs being impossible or something?

 

[jhm]

Didn't Nikola once say something along the lines of 1MWh packs being impossible or something?

It's impossible till your competitor can do it.

 

[jhm]

From watching the Nikola World keynote (admittedly in the background at times, as 1.5 hours is a long time on YouTube), I was surprised to learn that Nikola will be offering semi truck battery packs as large as 1 MWh! Going the H2 route will attract attention and perhaps investors, but I suspect most of their truck sales will turn out to be BEVs for economic reasons. I hope they give the Tesla Semi some good competition, as the faster diesel can be displaced, the better.

I didn't recall hearing about the nature of the charging infrastructure that Nikola intends to deploy for their BEV trucks. Do they envision something like the Tesla Megachargers, or just slower "overnight" charging?

For the record, I agree that H2 has tremendous potential for longer term energy storage, i.e., for capturing surplus solar energy during the summer and deploying it during the winter. Whether it'll make sense for trucking is another debate...

Nice! Glad to see they'll offer longer BEV range versions.

Nikola still has a 1GW order for electrolyzers. So I'm pretty excited about that too. But not so much for trucks, but for driving down the cost of electrolyzers and as I am learning, compressors too.

 

[jhm]

The Genius Solution To The Electric Bus Problem | OilPrice.com

This is nice. Proterra will be offering a lease on the battery on their buses. The upfront cost is the biggest barrier to uptake, and a lease smooths that out and allows customers to realize savings from the outset.

Additionally I suspect that their may be skepticism about just how reliable and durable batteries are. So battery leases transfer that new technology risk back to the lessor and manufacturer.

I suspect that when Tesla starts selling the Semi in volume, buyers might have the same points of interest. Leasing the whole truck works, but leasing just the battery might be a sensible option.

 

[MP3Mike]

Off to the Nikola event now. Any last questions...post away now and if I can read them, I will.

@AudubonB So where is our report on your take-aways from the event? Any pricing?

 

[AudubonB]

um..er...yaah...

I'll try to give a reasonable report. I was not overwhelmed. But I don't poo-poo them, either.
I've got a ridiculous amount on my plate now. I can say I don't think my review is hugely time-critical; we can leave it at that.

 

[neroden]

The Genius Solution To The Electric Bus Problem | OilPrice.com

This is nice. Proterra will be offering a lease on the battery on their buses. The upfront cost is the biggest barrier to uptake, and a lease smooths that out and allows customers to realize savings from the outset.

City bus agencies are always cash-starved. Even though they can borrow at rock-bottom rates (they're municipal bonds!), legislative handcuffs usually prevent or discourage them from doing so.

So this will definitely give Proterra a major edge in that market. At least for the agencies which can't just issue munis for their bus purchases (because that's probably cheaper).

Additionally I suspect that their may be skepticism about just how reliable and durable batteries are. So battery leases transfer that new technology risk back to the lessor and manufacturer.

I suspect that when Tesla starts selling the Semi in volume, buyers might have the same points of interest. Leasing the whole truck works, but leasing just the battery might be a sensible option.

 

[AudubonB]

Was someone waiting for a Nikola report?

Sorry. Something happened yesterday. So long ago that I forgot what it was.

Oh, and tomorrow or Thursday some company reports earnings.

And then soon after that I have to watch a melting iSECicle.

 

[Nocturnal]

I went through some quick math yesterday and posted it to the investor thread but I think it's relevant here.

Disruption is not easy to predict. We expect Uber and GM to be disrupted, but what about Trains? Trains are far cheaper than trucking, but slow. If FSD trucks drop trucking costs by half it's possible that friggin TRAINS will be disrupted.

Fuel is 39% of trucking costs, driver's are 26%.
The Real Cost of Trucking - Per Mile Operating Cost of a Commercial Truck - TruckersReport.com

If you cut the driver and reduce fuel costs in half (I think that's conservative):
15.6 cents per ton mile is current trucking price per ton/mile
5.1 cents per mile is the current price for freight by rail per ton/mile
15.6 cents at 19% discount (halving fuel costs) + 26% discount (no driver) = 8.58 cents.

If you want to make it even better you can look at insurance rates (4% of current costs) and halve that expense. Maintenance is another 10%, you could easily argue that will be cut by half as well. \

15.6 cents at 19% discount (halving fuel costs) + 26% discount (no driver) +2% insurance discount + 5% maintenance discount = 7.5 cents

So for 2-3 cents a mile more you don't have to worry about train timelines, being located near train yards, ancillary costs of shipping from train yard to destination etc. Shipping times go from about 2 weeks via train (taken from auto shipping times) down to 24 hours or so.

http://www.iemonitor.com/files/CBO freight costs.pdfsa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj5qcqLnufhAhUIIKwKHV21DEIQFjAAegQIAhAC&url=http://www.iemonitor.com/files/CBO%20freight%20costs.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0QrWAVT6FmWdyHX8WQRCgf

 

[jerry33]

So for 2-3 cents a mile more you don't have to worry about train timelines, being located near train yards, ancillary costs of shipping from train yard to destination etc. Shipping times go from about 2 weeks via train (taken from auto shipping times) down to 24 hours or so.

This situation is because trucks don't pay their share of the road damage they do.

 

[adiggs]

In fairness to the trains, they're operating on a more fully self funded "road" network than the trucks. If society doesn't step in with better truck taxation to put the full cost of road repair and maintenance on trucking, then what you're describing (trains being disrupted by electric trucks) sounds entirely feasible to me.

To society's detriment.

Platoons of trucks on the interstate replacing platoons of train cars on train tracks, right up until the interstates are grid locked with platoons of trucks :|

 

[LCR1]

Trucks (diesel) already pays higher fuel taxes and gets less mpg therefore pay more per miles than cars.