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How are the updates determined for delivery? Why don't I see this update on my car?

At the most fundamental level: Random. Tesla routinely pushes out newer firmware to a smaller audience of randomly selected cars (call it beta testing, A/B testing, etc etc). This can go on for weeks with a new build every week, until some point where they start a more massive rollout (those are usually 1/3 or 1/4 of the population per day).

The only exception is: If you book a service appointment and bring your car in, that sometimes triggers the most recent build to be installed on your car.

But for most people: Don't feel left out that your car is not getting updates that exist out there. Unless you find yourself left out of a major rollout, there's nothing wrong with your car. You can use either ev-fw.com or firmware.teslafi.com to get a sense of the distribution of updates. Right now, the major rollout is still 2017.34. There was a minor and no-longer-active rollout of 2017.36 that reached a small population, but since then, 2017.38 and 2017.38.4 have been very small rollouts.
 
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How are the updates determined for delivery? Why don't I see this update on my car?

Buddy who works at TSLA says that the best way to get updates ASAP is to pony up for the P100D and connect it to Wifi with the Wifi holding significantly more weight than P100D status.

I can confirm - for the 1st 6 mo. of ownership I didn't connect the car to wifi and would get updates way later than everyone else. This month i just started to connect it to wifi and I've gotten updates every 2-3 weeks on the nose on Sunday.
 
Buddy who works at TSLA says that the best way to get updates ASAP is to pony up for the P100D and connect it to Wifi with the Wifi holding significantly more weight than P100D status.

I can confirm - for the 1st 6 mo. of ownership I didn't connect the car to wifi and would get updates way later than everyone else. This month i just started to connect it to wifi and I've gotten updates every 2-3 weeks on the nose on Sunday.

Ummm... no on the P100D theory. Not the case. Go through Teslafi.com and look at who is getting and who has the updates, pick any firmware, and the P100D's are not favored, nor are they the first to get updates. The latest firmware isn't even on a single P100D.

The wifi is likely, but not 100% confirmed. It is interesting that you get yours on Sundays... I've noticed all of my updates seem to hit at the same times, as well. I wonder if there is a polling interval coming from the car.
 
I've got a S100D and am on wifi all the time, only get updates every 6-8 weeks. Maybe having the P makes more of a difference, but I'm not sure I see that pattern in the crowdsourced rollout data. Connecting to wifi generally gets you an update 2-3 days earlier compared to over LTE, but yeah, if you don't have wifi connectivity to your car, and you see a large rollout happening on EV-FW, it definitely would be a good idea to get on wifi if you gotta have the update.
 
Ummm... no on the P100D theory. Not the case. Go through Teslafi.com and look at who is getting and who has the updates, pick any firmware, and the P100D's are not favored, nor are they the first to get updates. The latest firmware isn't even on a single P100D.

The wifi is likely, but not 100% confirmed. It is interesting that you get yours on Sundays... I've noticed all of my updates seem to hit at the same times, as well. I wonder if there is a polling interval coming from the car.

Teslafi is self reported (i.e. if I don't use TeslaFi, teslaFi won't know my firmware) and therefore the data is only as good as those who are signed up for it. I have the latest firmware and have had it for a couple of weeks, but I'm never going to show up in TeslaFi.

My buddy would also have nothing to gain by lying to me on the P100D / Wifi release cadence.
 

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Teslafi is self reported (i.e. if I don't use TeslaFi, teslaFi won't know my firmware) and therefore the data is only as good as those who are signed up for it. I have the latest firmware and have had it for a couple of weeks, but I'm never going to show up in TeslaFi.

My buddy would also have nothing to gain by lying to me on the P100D / Wifi release cadence.

Nobody is saying your buddy is lying. I literally spend a good 30% of my work year cleaning up after the game of engineering telephone (or blind leading the blind) where people make multiple layers of decisions based off misinformation…

Unless your buddy works on release management at Tesla, it's very much possible his information isn't accurate (or was only accurate for some point in time). And it's not his fault, it's just we are not seeing, in public, the same trends.


P.S. Did your buddy put your car in the early release pool? I definitely know that's a thing from a contact within Tesla too. I politely declined, but that could be why you are getting more aggressive update rollouts.
 
Nobody is saying your buddy is lying. I literally spend a good 30% of my work year cleaning up after the game of engineering telephone (or blind leading the blind) where people make multiple layers of decisions based off misinformation…

Unless your buddy works on release management at Tesla, it's very much possible his information isn't accurate (or was only accurate for some point in time). And it's not his fault, it's just we are not seeing, in public, the same trends.


P.S. Did your buddy put your car in the early release pool? I definitely know that's a thing from a contact within Tesla too. I politely declined, but that could be why you are getting more aggressive update rollouts.

Yes on the release management, no on the early release pool.
 
Yes on the release management, no on the early release pool.
Assuming it's true, has your buddy shined any light onto why they prefer P100D's? Generally these new builds have been a serious toss-up in terms of whether or not it's actually beneficial to the customer. Just in the last 2 months, we've seen builds that cause severe lane departures at low speeds, break LTE radio streaming, possibly cause parking brake malfunctions, etc etc etc. I'm not sure the reason for biasing the selection towards the higher MSRP cars.
 
I've got a P100D and my car is connected to wifi for on average 12 hours every day but I'm on .36 still. I'm guessing the .38s are still considered early release. I saw someone try to break down where the updates go on which days on the tesla forums but can't find his post now. There was no reference to which type of car. We've definitely seen reports that being on wifi will bring your update on sooner elsewhere too, but no idea about the P100D theory...
 
I've got a P100D and my car is connected to wifi for on average 12 hours every day but I'm on .36 still. I'm guessing the .38s are still considered early release. I saw someone try to break down where the updates go on which days on the tesla forums but can't find his post now. There was no reference to which type of car. We've definitely seen reports that being on wifi will bring your update on sooner elsewhere too, but no idea about the P100D theory...

I believe your talking about my batch load post / spreadsheet, but it doesn’t apply for 38 because it’s very clearly not going wide.
 
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Teslafi is self reported (i.e. if I don't use TeslaFi, teslaFi won't know my firmware) and therefore the data is only as good as those who are signed up for it. I have the latest firmware and have had it for a couple of weeks, but I'm never going to show up in TeslaFi.

My buddy would also have nothing to gain by lying to me on the P100D / Wifi release cadence.

Not saying your buddy is lying, but am saying he probably doesn't know, has been fed bad information, or his info is dated. Certainly the Teslafi information is only as good as the pool, but it still doesn't jive - because if it did, ALL of the P100D's on Teslafi and ev-fw would be showing up FIRST as upgraded, regardless of whether or not the entire pool is truly representative or not.

If your buddy is in release management, then he can probably shed a lot of light on when the next release will be pushed...