Elon, Where is the FSD features you promised?

[electracity]

If Tesla has added updated AP hardware to the model 3 they may have created a liability that they will need to report to shareholders.

 

[Swift]

Humbly; I've got a few Tesla's and over 300k of Autopilot miles on the Fleet. Most of them run AP1 and the latest addition runs AP2. As noted across many threads in the forum there is quite a large gap between their capabilities and trust you can place in them.
My personal view is that the pre-facelift AP1 is actually the stronger of all at the current versions.
Facelift AP1 feels much more stable today than AP2, but there is still some strange goings on, acceleration pauses and line hugging. The Camera/Radar primary sensor switch around made a huge difference to the capabilities of the Facelifted AP1. It too - was much more nervous than pre-facelift AP1 beforehand.

On the subject of AP2 and the Tesla communications, I concur with the feelings that Tesla as a entirety have sold a dream that they're struggling to deliver upon. This isn't just Elon - he's far from dumb and we don't know what information or data he's working with, past, present or future. My personal view from what I've seen in documentaries and interviews is that he's a good leader. He's got a good vision, passion and I think his Twitter activity/interactions with the rest of us should be respected. Not many CEO's will directly engage with their customer base. It must also be incredibly hard to maintain the perfect structure in an organisation that is growing (and must grow) at the rate of Tesla. Especially given that the Giants are now waking up - that must be quite pressurising.

That said - it's straight up not good enough to be in the place that AP2 owners are in. Tesla owe AP2 owners some form of humble pie.

In business I believe that problems don't cause pain. Rational humans that process information with logic and fact completely understand that when you try really hard to make something truly amazing, you'll hit stumbling blocks and backward steps along the way.
But... it's about how you deal with these problems that counts. If this was my business I'd take a couple of steps...

1) I'd offer optional refunds to those owners that purchased AP2 EAP and FSD. Whilst leaving AP available to them in its current form and up to AP1 parity.

2) For new orders I'd make it so that taking AP2 EAP and FSD later on, when it's actually available and usable wouldn't cost additional on top of specifying it at point of order.

If Tesla read these threads; I think it's important that they appreciate all the views, opinions and emotions in this thread are positive. We're all engaged on the journey... passionately loving what they do. That spills into disappointment quite easily if we feel we're potentially being mugged off. Mainly because we think Tesla is better than that.

I like where you're going with this and the steps you suggest are in the right direction. That said, the people who bought the vehicle based on the FSD video and AP claims, probably would not have bought the base car alone. The remediation/compensation for that needs to be sorted out as well.

 

[BigD0g]

I like where you're going with this and the steps you suggest are in the right direction. That said, the people who bought the vehicle based on the FSD video and AP claims, probably would not have bought the base car alone. The remediation/compensation for that needs to be sorted out as well.

I finally pulled the trigger because of the FSD video I was waiting / stalking for a couple of years, but always said I'd wait for HW2 and FSD. The piece that really through it over the edge for me was the at the time SC for life was ending by Dec 2016. Had I known then what I knew now I would have bough in Dec 2017 instead of 2016, but you can't change the past, so I'll just ride and love my car and wait patiently for the software updates to come.

I also prepaid for FSD, but that was again based on the video and the assumption jeez, they already have this working, HA HA HA.

 

[Bebop]

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

In case anyone didn't catch the earnings call recently. Elon had this to say on Autopilot and FSD..

"A side note, we're making great progress on our internal Autopilot software. It's getting better and better. I'm really, really excited. I test drive the latest development release as soon as it comes out, and I'm like this is really getting to be something special. Yes, it's really, and I think it's going to accelerate from here. And the talent that we're seeing join on the technical side for Autopilot is really world-class. I don't think there's – it's unmatched anywhere, I would say."

..."I spend a lot of my week working on Autopilot, with the Autopilot team. Right down in the trenches, the individual details of how we can improve this or that or enhanced in your math, enhanced vision and advanced improved control.

.......

"
Robert Cihra - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Hi. Great. Thanks very much. Just going back to Autopilot development, obviously not talking personal details or anything but you had some personnel changes in the quarter. I'm just wondering if those reflected any kind of change of strategy or scope, or if it was just kind of a personal thing? And I guess just related, are you still hoping to be able to do the autonomous drive L.A. to New York by the end of this year? Thank you.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. I may not comment too much on like individual personnel changes, but Tesla is 33,000-person company. If you actually look at our executive tenure at Tesla, it's extremely good. It's above average. I think we're at least maybe a year or two above average in terms of executive tenure here.

Every now and then something doesn't work out for one reason or another. In the case of Autopilot, it's very centrally about vision and image recognition, neural nets, effectively narrow AI. And so, that's the focus from our recruiting standpoint, and I think we've really got – I think we've got the best team in the world by a long shot on that front, and we are growing it rapidly with world-class talent.

And then, the coast-to-coast drive, autonomous drive by the end of the year, I believe we're still on track for that. It is certainly possible that I may have egg on my face on that front. But if it is not, at the end of the year, it will be very close."

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Yet there are people in this very thread that will argue that isn't true so when the time comes and Elon misses yet another deadline, they have some Plausible deniability in saying they never agreed to holding Elon to that date.

Yes its pretty laughable. for example look back at the initial 3-6 months thread there were ppl in that thread and have showed up in this one who refused to hold elon accountable for the timeline just incase he misses.

These ppl only care about Tesla and Elon's positive outlook, its hilarious

I don't understand why you're using what he said in a conference when talking about the topic of autonomous driving as a date that is promised by Tesla.

I totally understand taking Tesla to task on EAP which they were way late on. This was one area where they had it in writing on their website. That's the one area I could see Tesla being sued.

But, FSD? Doubtful.

The closest thing you have to a promise is the tweet that started this entire thread. But, that tweet wasn't very specific as to what he was referring to. What it would bring.

 

[BlueRocket]

I finally pulled the trigger because of the FSD video I was waiting / stalking for a couple of years, but always said I'd wait for HW2 and FSD. The piece that really through it over the edge for me was the at the time SC for life was ending by Dec 2016. Had I known then what I knew now I would have bough in Dec 2017 instead of 2016, but you can't change the past, so I'll just ride and love my car and wait patiently for the software updates to come.

I also prepaid for FSD, but that was again based on the video and the assumption jeez, they already have this working, HA HA HA.

They do have FSD working ... It's just that we don't. Tesla is keeping it from us like the drug companies are keeping the cure for cancer from us.

Need to have Trump tweet about the FAKE video and the failing Tesla Car Company!

 

[scottf200]

They do have FSD working ... It's just that we don't. Tesla is keeping it from us like the drug companies are keeping the cure for cancer from us.
Need to have Trump tweet about the FAKE video and the failing Tesla Car Company!

They can't provide any level of it until they can be 99.9999% sure it is 'safer' than non-FSD otherwise they are sued and we 'never' get it. Or such a thing cripples Tesla.

I'd be happy with level 3 or 3.5 and all the camera usage used to provide advanced blindside assistance, accident avoidance, much safer means of dealing with bicyclist, pedestrians, motorcyclist, etc.

 

[BlueRocket]

They can't provide any level of it until they can be 99.9999% sure it is 'safer' than non-FSD otherwise they are sued and we 'never' get it. Or such a thing cripples Tesla.

I'd be happy with level 3 or 3.5 and all the camera usage used to provide advanced blindside assistance, accident avoidance, much safer means of dealing with bicyclist, pedestrians, motorcyclist, etc.

Totally agree... Just trying to inject some levity into the thread

 

[calisnow]

This. Tesla PURPOSEFULLY lied to me about the status, scope, and capabilities of autopilot development and FAILED TO DISCLOSE that they had not even begun autopilot code when they sold me my car October 2016. They showed me AP1 and the FSD video and told me AP2 would be far, far superior, capable of FSD in fact, due to the 8 vs. 1 camera.

How the f*ck was I supposed to know they are a lying cheating organization?

@oktane - this isn't a troll or a flame - but honestly dude you seem a bit wigged out. Like your brain is stuck on some kind of endless circuit - you've got anger issues man. Are you under financial stress to buy this car? That's all I can think of as to why you wouldn't have worked through it by this point.

Tesla did not deliver what they said they would when they would and they're still working on it. Fact. Can't do anything about it. All you CAN do is decide what to do today - you've had plenty of time to be angry and nobody says you were not justified. But the facts still remain that you have (in my opinion) the best car on planet earth, one that is much better than it was 6 months ago and is steadily improving. You can choose what to think about to some extent - and if you can't I think you need a psychiatrist's couch for the sake of your own mental heatlh. You're only hurting yourself at this point by waking up every day pounding out posts in which it is clear you are emotionally wounded - over the promises a car salesman did not keep.

You've become a mix of a sad and comic caricature - someone to pity because you're clearly stuck inside your own head. Someday you will be old and near death - if somebody asked you how you spent the fall and spring of 16/17 and you have to respond "I was mad because my car didn't drive itself and I was lied to, so I spent every day on message boards expressing the anger I felt over my car" - the joke will be on you dude.

My AP2 Tesla also does not drive itself - and I'm happy as a clam! My choice whether to groan about its failings or focus on how cool it is that it's learning over time. You need therapy man - you need to learn to move on.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Amazing, blame those who were duped by Tesla rather than the organization that is doing the duping.

Rather? You do realize I was blaming both. I simply wasn't sure of who to blame more. It's hard not to be cynical about it when you know who is in the white house.

As an outside looking in I see both parties underestimating the regulatory elements.

Tesla does make it quite clear on their website that it depends on regulatory requirements. I'm not sure how a customer can ignore this. The entire point of FSD is so you don't have to watch over the car while it drives. So the car takes responsibility during while its engaged.

Tesla seems to have underestimated the battle that getting regulatory approval is going to be. Where the current HW might not be enough, and it could require upgrades. Those upgrades across the fleet of S/X/ and potentially the 3 is going to be costly. Even if they only upgraded the people who paid for FSD.

 

[calisnow]

Teleportation features are as likely held back by validation as much as autopilot features are. I could be totally wrong, but the lack of communication about wth is actually going on is really bad. I can't help but think there's a large cohort of people who bought FSD and basically think they're never going to see it implemented on their hardware. Just like the teleportation or hover car options. (Shh, those were insider deals the salesperson gave me special access to)

STOP THE PRESSES!

Humbly; I've got a few Tesla's and over 300k of Autopilot miles ...
My personal view is that the pre-facelift AP1 is actually the stronger of all at the current versions. Facelift AP1 feels much more stable today than AP2, but there is still some strange goings on, acceleration pauses and line hugging. The Camera/Radar primary sensor switch around made a huge difference to the capabilities of the Facelifted AP1. It too - was much more nervous than pre-facelift AP1 beforehand.

THIS is fascinating - you are the first person to claim a difference in AP1 cars - I've always wondered if there were any differences. You really think so? But why would this be? Interesting it's the earlier cars you think are better.

...That said - it's straight up not good enough to be in the place that AP2 owners are in. Tesla owe AP2 owners some form of humble pie.
...
1) I'd offer optional refunds to those owners that purchased AP2 EAP and FSD. Whilst leaving AP available to them in its current form and up to AP1 parity.
...
2) For new orders I'd make it so that taking AP2 EAP and FSD later on, when it's actually available and usable wouldn't cost additional on top of specifying it at point of order.

My own ruthless view is Tesla should not do any of the items you suggest - they should just keep improving AP2 (which they have been - if you actually build yourself a timeline in excel you will see all the updates and how frequent they are - and you'll see the thing is steadily improving) and then they will have shut up the few nerds yackingon about AP on a message board in a small corner of the internet. The larger story in the press is "silky smooth" and 1,800 orders per day of Model 3. Model S/X orders are up 15% post announcement if you believe him.

Tesla has no reason to play to the whims of existing owners. We are not representative of the whole. As long as the numbers are in the right direction (satisfaction as a whole, recommendations, sales) then Tesla is doing the "right" thing by their shareholders - as long as AP2 keeps banging out progress.

Giving optional refunds would generate bad press - Tesla thinks that something is wrong eh? It might even open them up to liability because it generates the appearance that they knew something was amiss. Right now they're protected by their language and by the fact that most folks are not internet weenies like us.

4-10 weeks from now AP2's quirks will be largely gone and we will hopefully begin stacking features like automatic freeway interchanges with auto passing of cars, etc.

 

[oktane]

@oktane - this isn't a troll or a flame - but honestly dude you seem a bit wigged out. Like your brain is stuck on some kind of endless circuit - you've got anger issues man. Are you under financial stress to buy this car? That's all I can think of as to why you wouldn't have worked through it by this point.

Tesla did not deliver what they said they would when they would and they're still working on it. Fact. Can't do anything about it. All you CAN do is decide what to do today - you've had plenty of time to be angry and nobody says you were not justified. But the facts still remain that you have (in my opinion) the best car on planet earth, one that is much better than it was 6 months ago and is steadily improving. You can choose what to think about to some extent - and if you can't I think you need a psychiatrist's couch for the sake of your own mental heatlh. You're only hurting yourself at this point by waking up every day pounding out posts in which it is clear you are emotionally wounded - over the promises a car salesman did not keep.

You've become a mix of a sad and comic caricature - someone to pity because you're clearly stuck inside your own head. Someday you will be old and near death - if somebody asked you how you spent the fall and spring of 16/17 and you have to respond "I was mad because my car didn't drive itself and I was lied to, so I spent every day on message boards expressing the anger I felt over my car" - the joke will be on you dude.

My AP2 Tesla also does not drive itself - and I'm happy as a clam! My choice whether to groan about its failings or focus on how cool it is that it's learning over time. You need therapy man - you need to learn to move on.

Yes angry at Tesla and emotionally wounded. Fortunately for me I have been very lucky financially so that's not the issue. However, I have made it my personal mission to inform every potential Tesla buyer that I meet about AP2 and Tesla's ethos do they are not duped like me.

You would be shocked as to how many people have asked me how awesome it is to not have to drive myself to work.

Like me, you also spend way too much time on this message board. You are going to need counseling for your addiction! Save a spot for me on the couch.

 

[croman]

4-10 weeks from now AP2's quirks will be largely gone and we will hopefully begin stacking features like automatic freeway interchanges with auto passing of cars, etc.

I was just at a Tesla event and its far from us internet nerds that have noticed AP2 is not what they were promised or sold on. In fact, I was speaking to a recent X owner that swore he was told the car could drive itself. Clearly he misunderstood the salesperson (at least, I hope so!) but Tesla is sending mixed messages with their FSD demos almost a year ago and the current state of affairs. Even Elon needs to acknowledge that he misled Q4 '16 buyers with his end of 2016 parity spiel. There were excellent savings on inventory AP1 vehicles that people, like me, passed up because of the fact AP2 should be further along.

Further, your rosy optimism is misplaced. There is no predicting AP2's growth because its like playing poker with 1/2 the deck. We just have to sit back and hope AP2 isn't a bridge to nowhere.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Yes angry at Tesla and emotionally wounded. Fortunately for me I have been very lucky financially so that's not the issue. However, I have made it my personal mission to inform every potential Tesla buyer that I meet about AP2 and Tesla's ethos do they are not duped like me.

You would be shocked as to how many people have asked me how awesome it is to not have to drive myself to work.

Like me, you also spend way too much time on this message board. You are going to need counseling for your addiction! Save a spot for me on the couch.

I would love to join you guys. In seven months I have yet to talk to anyone that thought my car was fully autonomous and could drive me to work. Maybe they are just teasing you because you go around all day telling people your upset because your car doesn't drive itself better.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I was just at a Tesla event and its far from us internet nerds that have noticed AP2 is not what they were promised or sold on. In fact, I was speaking to a recent X owner that swore he was told the car could drive itself. Clearly he misunderstood the salesperson (at least, I hope so!) but Tesla is sending mixed messages with their FSD demos almost a year ago and the current state of affairs. Even Elon needs to acknowledge that he misled Q4 '16 buyers with his end of 2016 parity spiel. There were excellent savings on inventory AP1 vehicles that people, like me, passed up because of the fact AP2 should be further along.

Further, your rosy optimism is misplaced. There is no predicting AP2's growth because its like playing poker with 1/2 the deck. We just have to sit back and hope AP2 isn't a bridge to nowhere.

I was at my local Tesla showroom about a year ago and the Tesla rep told me that Tesla's current AP hardware was capable of full autonomy as soon the software was ready, so it's no surprise they are saying it's now fully autonomous with the latest hardware.

Maybe it should be our civic duty to stop into showrooms on occasion and make sure the staff knows what the heck they are talking about. Any Portlanders want to go with me on my first educate the employees outing?

 

[oktane]

I was at my local Tesla showroom about a year ago and the Tesla rep told me that Tesla's current AP hardware was capable of full autonomy as soon the software was ready, so it's no surprise they are saying it's now fully autonomous with the latest hardware.

Maybe it should be our civic duty to stop into showrooms on occasion and make sure the staff knows what the heck they are talking about. Any Portlanders want to go with me on my first educate the employees outing?

I think they know that what they are saying is hogwash, but it's easier to sell cars that way. I assume there is some form of "comission" or compensation based on performance selling cars.

I do wish they'd drop advertising AP2 and simply let the EV drive train speak for itself, and sell what the car is actually good at rather than a lie.

 

[bswn1]

I think they know that what they are saying is hogwash, but it's easier to sell cars that way. I assume there is some form of "comission" or compensation based on performance selling cars.

I do wish they'd drop advertising AP2 and simply let the EV drive train speak for itself, and sell what the car is actually good at rather than a lie.

Not totally disagreeing with you, but I don't believe the sales people are commission based.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Where did Elon say "approximately three years"?

Anyway

Me and alot of people obviously disagree with you on this. Why? Because it makes no sense. If we get a group of random and give them the quote and remove all context thereby removing any bias they would vehemently disagree with your 2018H2/2019H1.


You keep giving Tesla time they never allocated because your love for them have clouded your judgment.

But an objective conclusion is that according to statements right up to the release of AP2 all pointed to a release of December 2017 - June 2018.

It was only acouple months ago that he added yet another year to it.

But the promise of 2017/mid 2018 was sold to the media including AP2 everywhere. So alot of people bought Tesla and the FSD because when they googled, all they saw were articles saying that Tesla will have FSD ready by the latest mid-2018.


If you do the math below then you come up with level 5 by June 2018 period. You certainly dont come up with June 2019.

December 2015: "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."
January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY" -
June 2016: "I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year," Musk said.


He went from saying approximately two to less than two.

This is where he said it:

June 2015
"33. Shareholder asking how long until fully self-driving car.
34. Elon: It will be technically possible in approximately 3 years. It will take some time after that for regulators to accept it being okay for one to fall asleep in a self-driving vehicle. 1-3 years after that until regulators approve it, but that’s not under my control."
Tesla Livestream of 2015 4. Auto Shareholder Meeting notes and observations 7.13.

My point is removing all context is misleading. It does not give you a reference to how granular he is framing his predictions (days, months, quarters, half a year, a year?).

As for what the media does, they frequently give the wrong interpretation anyways. Since we have access to the direct context, we can look at those directly.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Sadly this is not the message you hear from Tesla salespeople.

The regular layperson idea of Tesla technology today is "oh! it's a car that drives itself!" (confirmed by FedEx delivery person that brought me my plates and asked me how is my self-driving car doing.)
Somewhat more educated public has this a bit different image of "Tesla has the most advanced 'autopilot' on the market that still needs some intervention from people, but they also demonstrated FSD last year and there's a video of it so it should not be too far away." (I fell into this camp at purchase time reinforced by salesman telling me that FSD is much sooner than I imagine and I might send my car to the service center for annual inspection all by itself (3 hours drive so hardly something I want to do myself)).

There was official eap timetable and that did not help much, btw (this is what the class action lawsuit is about). Needless to say salespeople did not acknowledge that one either. I.e. they demonstrated AP1 and said that AP2 is so much better, but they don't have any AP2 demo cars so just marvel at AP1 for now (happened to me on two occasions).

The very fact that there was a timetable, and a feature list with EAP makes all the difference.

It makes a difference in who buys it. Someone like me wouldn't buy FSD (no details on deliverables/regulatory/timeframe), but would buy EAP (timetable for feature parity, and details of what I was getting). So you're likely going to have a lot more buyers of EAP only, and a lot of EAP+FSP buyers who were okay with the unknowns.

It makes a difference in sympathy. With EAP a person was told that it would have feature parity by such-and-such date. Tesla was late by around 6 months. Plus they haven't even gotten started on any of the enhanced parts. Not only that, but Tesla used customers as alpha-testers. Not even beta quality to start with. It's really hard NOT to have sympathy for an EAP buyer.

This gives EAP lawsuits merit, and I say that as someone generally opposed to lawsuits.

With a true blue FSD believer my only reaction is a face palm or a face plant. I don't know what else to say about it. I'm sorry, but I just don't have any sympathy. I will say I have had my fair share of believing too good to be true things. Usually it's in relationships.

I would recommend two healthy cups of cynicism before bed each night for a year, and weekly visits to bestbuy. Learn to chuckle at what a salesperson tells you.

 

[u00mem9]

Humbly; I've got a few Tesla's and over 300k of Autopilot miles on the Fleet. Most of them run AP1 and the latest addition runs AP2. As noted across many threads in the forum there is quite a large gap between their capabilities and trust you can place in them.
My personal view is that the pre-facelift AP1 is actually the stronger of all at the current versions.
Facelift AP1 feels much more stable today than AP2, but there is still some strange goings on, acceleration pauses and line hugging. The Camera/Radar primary sensor switch around made a huge difference to the capabilities of the Facelifted AP1. It too - was much more nervous than pre-facelift AP1 beforehand.

On the subject of AP2 and the Tesla communications, I concur with the feelings that Tesla as a entirety have sold a dream that they're struggling to deliver upon. This isn't just Elon - he's far from dumb and we don't know what information or data he's working with, past, present or future. My personal view from what I've seen in documentaries and interviews is that he's a good leader. He's got a good vision, passion and I think his Twitter activity/interactions with the rest of us should be respected. Not many CEO's will directly engage with their customer base. It must also be incredibly hard to maintain the perfect structure in an organisation that is growing (and must grow) at the rate of Tesla. Especially given that the Giants are now waking up - that must be quite pressurising.

That said - it's straight up not good enough to be in the place that AP2 owners are in. Tesla owe AP2 owners some form of humble pie.

In business I believe that problems don't cause pain. Rational humans that process information with logic and fact completely understand that when you try really hard to make something truly amazing, you'll hit stumbling blocks and backward steps along the way.
But... it's about how you deal with these problems that counts. If this was my business I'd take a couple of steps...

1) I'd offer optional refunds to those owners that purchased AP2 EAP and FSD. Whilst leaving AP available to them in its current form and up to AP1 parity.

2) For new orders I'd make it so that taking AP2 EAP and FSD later on, when it's actually available and usable wouldn't cost additional on top of specifying it at point of order.

If Tesla read these threads; I think it's important that they appreciate all the views, opinions and emotions in this thread are positive. We're all engaged on the journey... passionately loving what they do. That spills into disappointment quite easily if we feel we're potentially being mugged off. Mainly because we think Tesla is better than that.

Great post! Unfortunately, Elon is doing exactly the opposite of what you have suggested. Did you watch the Model 3 reveal? It was super awkward when he suddenly repeated the exact marketing BS for FSD verbatim....creepy really.

It reminded me of that SNL skit:
Watch The Amazing Alexander from Saturday Night Live on NBC.com