FSD Beta 10.69

[EVNow]

He just said end of month deadlines. For projects, it’s customary to have multiple deadlines for phases of the project. Elon notably did not say “deadline for beta release.”

And deadlines are not always met ... infact given Elon's super-hyper-ultra optimistic deadlines, I guess they rarely are

Besides, if same people were involved in Optimus and beta release features, they would no doubt prioritize Optimus - which they barely got ready for AI day.

 

[willow_hiller]

This is interesting... Are we positive that nothing changes with FSD Beta in-between firmware releases? It's easy to lose amongst all the data that gets uploaded, but at the same time I'm uploading GB of data, sizable amounts of data are coming back in the MB.

Tonight's communications with the Mothership were 8.1 GB up and 165.1 MB back down:

No streaming music, no satellite maps, so I cannot think what my car would be downloading that would take 165 MB while parked and connected to Wifi.

 

[thewishmaster]

This is interesting... Are we positive that nothing changes with FSD Beta in-between firmware releases? It's easy to lose amongst all the data that gets uploaded, but at the same time I'm uploading GB of data, sizable amounts of data are coming back in the MB.

Tonight's communications with the Mothership were 8.1 GB up and 165.1 MB back down:

No streaming music, no satellite maps, so I cannot think what my car would be downloading that would take 165 MB while parked and connected to Wifi.

165mb of thanks for 8.1gb of data contributed?

 

[Tronguy]

i mean, FSDb tries to kill you in many different ways...diving for a curb, slamming brakes in the middle of intersections, and sure in rare occassions with some really complex light (or even stop sign), it can get confused(but it's STILL significantly better than the chime). Anyway, i will say, FSDb has tried to kill me in many different ways, but it's never run a red light on ME. I wouldn't be surprised if it has rarely for others.

And, just being clear, here: There's this one light-controlled intersection with lousy striping (worn away by time, rain, snow, and neglect) that, after a full halt, FSD-b, after a pause, attempts to go through the red light upon; it's done it there roughly three different times. Mind you, it never tried to fly through the intersection at speed (most people's idea of running a red light), but through a red light it tried to go.

And, yeah, some mid-double-digit percentage of interventions that I do with FSD-b would bend metal. But I've never yet had a situation occur where there wasn't enough time to react to something silly.

I just finished listening though the entire AI-day broadcast on YouTube. I will say that the coming features sound like a fair number of the problems we've all been encountering will be solved and, no, not on the next release.

 

[Tronguy]

This is interesting... Are we positive that nothing changes with FSD Beta in-between firmware releases? It's easy to lose amongst all the data that gets uploaded, but at the same time I'm uploading GB of data, sizable amounts of data are coming back in the MB.

Tonight's communications with the Mothership were 8.1 GB up and 165.1 MB back down:

View attachment 859736
No streaming music, no satellite maps, so I cannot think what my car would be downloading that would take 165 MB while parked and connected to Wifi.

Ha. On the one hand, this could be that, "here's a bunch of new parameter data. Now, push the duckling into the pond and see if it can dodge the turtles."

Now, when one is playing Layer 2 in TCP/IP land, there's going to be data chugging back and forth as a wrapper on any data uploaded to Tesla (ACKS and NAKS and that kind of thing). However, 165 MB sounds a bit excessive for that. So, on the other hand, some automated system back at Tesla may have decided that Interesting Data might be garnered from your car, and the remote software isn't doing a raw data dump, but is rather calling APIs in the car to make the car cough up certain data. Those calls could get lengthy.

 

[Mardak]

Brace yourselves for more stunning mediocrity and some notable improvements

Do we think the language component of Lanes network was already part of 10.69 or only the "Lane Guidance Module" of "map component" was added to the existing "vision component" as described at AI Day 2022 for FSD Lanes & Objects? If the latter, then the better "language-based" predictions could be introduced with 10.69.3 for better understanding of individual lanes, which could make more human-like entering of intersections instead of basically waiting for all high-speed cross traffic to clear.

Even if not, just various "mediocre" improvements all around could be quite significant as an increase from say 90% accuracy to 95% is now half the errors compared to before:


These types of data engine improvements shouldn't require any engineering changes to the neural networks and "just" data collection and training -- both should be speeding up with larger deployment of FSD Beta fleet and Dojo capabilities.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

If the latter, then the better "language-based" predictions could be introduced with 10.69.3 for better understanding of individual lanes, which could make more human-like entering of intersections instead of basically waiting for all high-speed cross traffic to clear.

Yeah, basically impossible to know what's included and what isn't. I listened closely for this in the presentation, but wasn't clear to me what was included. I tend to think the language component is not since it isn't mentioned in the release notes.

I doubt it'll go in 10.69.3, but that's just a guess because Elon didn't specifically say it would.

But anyway, yes, these are the incremental improvements I'm talking about. Won't result in major improvements (half the rate would still be high if it's wrong 2% of the time!!!), but definitely notable!

 

[aronth5]

I've not written much about 69.2.2 .... still collecting data.

Has a lot of "jittery" issues and lacks refinement. We can now compare to a new driver taking driving lessons. Needs the instructor to correct from time to time.

But I'm now doing many more zero disengagement drives than any other release. May be even more than all previous releases combined, even with the roundabout issues I have.

69.2.2 for me is definitely improved and my zero disengagement drives have increased.

However, on the negative side it can behave incredibly badly. Far worse than any build I have had before. So Jekyll and Hyde. I have submitted several "critical safety issues" email to the FSD beta team. I firmly believe if someone was driving without paying really close attention my car would have gone off the road with considerable damage at least 4 times. Never had that happen in the past 12 months.

 

[flutas]

Ha. On the one hand, this could be that, "here's a bunch of new parameter data. Now, push the duckling into the pond and see if it can dodge the turtles."

Now, when one is playing Layer 2 in TCP/IP land, there's going to be data chugging back and forth as a wrapper on any data uploaded to Tesla (ACKS and NAKS and that kind of thing). However, 165 MB sounds a bit excessive for that. So, on the other hand, some automated system back at Tesla may have decided that Interesting Data might be garnered from your car, and the remote software isn't doing a raw data dump, but is rather calling APIs in the car to make the car cough up certain data. Those calls could get lengthy.

A TCP ACK is the minimum size of ethernet (46 bytes). This leads to at most 3,670,016 ACK packets for 161MB. A standard maximum ethernet frame is 1,518 bytes, leading to 5,729,452 packets for 8.1GB, or Tesla could be using jumbo frames, which means we couldn't exactly know on the number of packets but a good guess would be 9,018 bytes per packet, leading to 964,438 packets.

All this to say, that 161MB download could be only acknowledgments from the server, or it could be the car actually downloading something.

My guess would be it's mostly acknowledgments, with a very small amount of data being downloaded (Spotify, Tesla Syncing profiles, etc in the BG).

 

[willow_hiller]

My guess would be it's mostly acknowledgments, with a very small amount of data being downloaded (Spotify, Tesla Syncing profiles, etc in the BG).

If this is helpful, here's every DNS request my car also made during the upload. I don't see much that would point to extraneous downloads, and Cloud profiles aren't yet on FSD Beta builds:

 

[powertoold]

Do we think the language component of Lanes network was already part of 10.69 or only the "Lane Guidance Module" of "map component" was added to the existing "vision component" as described at AI Day 2022 for FSD Lanes & Objects? If the latter, then the better "language-based" predictions could be introduced with 10.69.3 for better understanding of individual lanes, which could make more human-like entering of intersections instead of basically waiting for all high-speed cross traffic to clear.

Even if not, just various "mediocre" improvements all around could be quite significant as an increase from say 90% accuracy to 95% is now half the errors compared to before:
View attachment 859739

These types of data engine improvements shouldn't require any engineering changes to the neural networks and "just" data collection and training -- both should be speeding up with larger deployment of FSD Beta fleet and Dojo capabilities.

I'd say Tesla hasn't fully deployed their lane guidance module yet. During the AI Day presentation, we can see multiple examples of lane paths that allow the car to turn into the farthest lane on left turns. Right now, FSD beta rarely skips lanes.

 

[kabin]

It will be interesting to see how much latency there is with the improved cross traffic kinematics.

 

[kabin]

I think the problem is FSD doesn’t look far enough ahead. When a human drives and the lane starts to widen you look 50 feet down the road and see that it’s actually becoming a turn lane so you pick the lane you want and head towards it. FSD seems to focus on the next 10-20 feet and then suddenly realizes there’s 2 lanes that it needs to decide between.

Yes, myopic with a confused state machine so you never know for sure what will happen next.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I'd say Tesla hasn't fully deployed their lane guidance module yet.

Yeah probably not in 10.69.3 either. This is the sort of thing that takes months or years to deploy (like occupancy did).

 

[powertoold]

Yeah probably not in 10.69.3 either. This is the sort of thing that takes months or years to deploy (like occupancy did).

I don't see why skipping lanes would take as long as the occupancy network, which took so long because they had to have it work in different weather conditions. But ya, fsd beta still doesn't routinely skip lanes, and it's already been 2 years since it was released to customers.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I don't see why skipping lanes would take as long as the occupancy network, which took so long because they had to have it work in different weather conditions

Literally everything they do has to work in different weather conditions; the lanes network stuff is no different. Gonna take forever.

 

[DrChaos]

I think the problem is FSD doesn’t look far enough ahead. When a human drives and the lane starts to widen you look 50 feet down the road and see that it’s actually becoming a turn lane so you pick the lane you want and head towards it. FSD seems to focus on the next 10-20 feet and then suddenly realizes there’s 2 lanes that it needs to decide between.

This could be hardware limitations. The cameras are only 1280x960. It just doesn't understand what's happening downroad where humans do. Human foveas are much better and are on smart double-gimbals.

 

[DrChaos]

Actually it is.

They take the output from their perception system (environment/object/dynamic actors) and now also industry standard multi-modal prediction of the dynamic actors (they moved away from running a copy of FSD on other dynamic actors which I criticized them last year for.

<planning algorithm>

Tesla wasn't doing this in 2021, they have completely abandoned their previous driving policy architecture,

So, they've changed both their perception ML (occupancy networks) and policy ML in a fundamental way within the last few months?

It shows

1) they do now have some very significant machine learning talent
2) they're very far from a practical commercial release if they're still changing core architecture so dramatically.

ML is complex and unpredictable with unusual edgepoint behaviors which have to be empirically discovered, not engineered. To get something useful for external users, they'll need years of careful iterative re-tuning of a stable architecture.

 

[JulienW]

This is interesting... Are we positive that nothing changes with FSD Beta in-between firmware releases? It's easy to lose amongst all the data that gets uploaded, but at the same time I'm uploading GB of data, sizable amounts of data are coming back in the MB.

Tonight's communications with the Mothership were 8.1 GB up and 165.1 MB back down:


No streaming music, no satellite maps, so I cannot think what my car would be downloading that would take 165 MB while parked and connected to Wifi.

I just got some kind of Game Update that was about that size yesterday. Since I don't have WiFi I get to see the requests asking me to connect to WiFi to download.

 

[willow_hiller]

If we don't see some early installs of 10.69.2.3 soon, I'm guessing it's for internal testing only, and the next version we'll get is 10.69.3.

Still no confirmed installations on either TeslaFi or Teslascope.