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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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I, and obviously many others, would like to follow closer. The previous radar "1" was close to perfect. It was far enough back to where I wasn't riding someone's bumper, but didn't have a 2-3 car whole in front of me.
Exactly. Stay close at a reasonable distance 'til the left lane is able to speed up then move to the right once you've passed slower traffic on the right. It's not rocket science and this is the normal flow of traffic. Once you're at cruising speed sure, relax and enjoy, let people cross in front if they want, it's not a battle. But do your part to keep traffic moving, and this requires your car to be able to follow closer when needed. Now it's WAY too far. If you don't have 11.3.3 yet I suggest you reserve judgement until you've actually tried it.
 
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People expect you to keep up with the car in front of you and if that feels unsafe or uncomfortable, they expect you to get out of the left lane. Of course you don't have to agree with them or appease them, but in their eyes you are being just as inconsiderate as you think they are by tailgating or aggressively passing on the right.
We'll know Tesla finally solved L2 once these quirky FSD traits go away. Until then FSD might remain a college-try novelty good for open roads and min to no traffic (i.e. frustration/scenario-fenced).
 
FSD and NoA creates the perception of 2, even with a follow distance of 2. P

People expect you to keep up with the car in front of you and if that feels unsafe or uncomfortable, they expect you to get out of the left lane.
Yes these things are absolutely essential.

Has very little to do with following distance though! It’s quite a tremendously different issue.
 
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Yes these things are absolutely essential.

Has very little to do with following distance though! It’s quite a tremendously different issue.
In the context we are talking to it does. When there's a line of traffic passing in the left lane, you are expected to keep up or move. The current implementation doesn't stay close enough to the lead car, which causes people to ride your bumper, flash their lights, or when they can...pass you.

I understand the logical argument that they are being irrational because they can only get as far as being behind the car in front of you, but it's not following real world driving when it allows a gap that large. Other companies TACC have gotten better at having a small distance and with the removal of radar, Tesla has taken a step back in this category.
 
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The current implementation doesn't stay close enough to the lead car, which causes people to ride your bumper, flash their lights, or when they can...pass you.
I think it is virtually certain that when this occurs the car is not following at the minimum distance allowed by the specified setting.

That is why it is a totally different issue.

Following distance 2 is sufficient to satisfy all but the most impatient drivers - no one would say you are not keeping up - unless it is falling behind and has a long following distance (which happens all the time).

In other words, even with a following setting of 0.5, there would still be a huge problem.
 
I think it is virtually certain that when this occurs the car is not following at the minimum distance allowed by the specified setting.

That is why it is a totally different issue.
Again, with the previous 1, it wasn't completely perfect, but close to it. Now it's worse than it was with 2, IMO...it's just too far in these scenarios. I'm not just speaking to how fast it closes the gap, I'm referring to the programmed gap of the car in front of you. It's too large for congested traffic at high speeds. Fine on city streets and stop-and-go traffic.
 
Again, with the previous 1, it wasn't completely perfect, but close to it. Now it's worse than it was with 2, IMO...it's just too far in these scenarios. I'm not just speaking to how fast it closes the gap, I'm referring to the programmed gap of the car in front of you. It's too large for congested traffic at high speeds. Fine on city streets and stop-and-go traffic.
I’d say two things have changed so I think it is hard to distinguish what the issue is.

Remember, right now, on setting 2, AP does not comply with that follow setting a very high percentage of the time.

It’ll be interesting to see if these issues persist. They have not changed in a long time.
 
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Following distance 2 is sufficient to satisfy all but the most impatient drivers - no one would say you are not keeping up - unless it is falling behind and has a long following distance (which happens all the time).
The minimum follow distance shouldn't leave enough room for a car to merge in front of you. There should be an option, even if you don't want to utilize it. Otherwise, you have to disengage, make others mad, or force the car to stay in the left lane.

It's fine if you don't care about keeping up with the flow of traffic, but many do.
 
It's too large for congested traffic at high speeds
At high speeds (say 80mph), a following time of less than about 1.5 seconds is most certainly unsafe. (Really should be at least 2 seconds.)

It's fine if you don't care about keeping up with the flow of traffic, but many do.
This is critically important to do, of course at a safe (and consistently minimized!) follow distance.
The minimum follow distance shouldn't leave enough room for a car to merge in front of you.

I can easily merge into a 45-ft gap, no problem, at freeway speeds. (Three car lengths.)

At 80mph, this is 0.4 seconds.

This setting would be extremely unsafe. You’re not going to get it (and it has never existed).


You’re never going to satisfy all impatient drivers, but consistently keeping up with the car in front especially as speeds change is very important and goes a long way to soothing people behind. It’s critical that the car do it smoothly and consistently. Right now on v10 it does not.
 
At high speeds (say 80mph), a following time of less than about 1.5 seconds is most certainly unsafe. (Really should be at least 2 seconds.)


This is critically important to do, of course at a safe (and consistently minimized!) follow distance.


I can easily merge into a 45-ft gap, no problem, at freeway speeds. (Three car lengths.)

At 80mph, this is 0.4 seconds.

This setting would be extremely unsafe. You’re not going to get it (and it has never existed).


You’re never going to satisfy all impatient drivers, but consistently keeping up with the car in front especially as speeds change is very important and goes a long way to soothing people behind. It’s critical that the car do it smoothly and consistently. Right now on v10 it does not.
We will agree to disagree.

For me, 1, would often be less than a full car length.
 
The minimum follow distance shouldn't leave enough room for a car to merge in front of you. There should be an option, even if you don't want to utilize it.
I disagree, that sounds like you want it to follow way too close. If you want to be that close drive yourself, you shouldn't expect a driver assistance system to drive in an unsafe manner.

I would expect that FSD would follow the 3-second rule. At 45 MPH you should have ~200 feet in front of you. At 60 MPH you should be ~275 feet behind the car in front of you.

For me, 1, would often be less than a full car length.
At what speed? (That would only be appropriate at very low speeds, like ~5MPH.)
 
I disagree, that sounds like you want it to follow way too close. If you want to be that close drive yourself, you shouldn't expect a driver assistance system to drive in an unsafe manner.

I would expect that FSD would follow the 3-second rule. At 45 MPH you should have ~200 feet in front of you. At 60 MPH you should be ~275 feet behind the car in front of you.
Options are what I'm asking for. I rented a Sonata this week for work and the TACC left a tiny bit over a car length on the interstate. It was great.

It's fine for people who are overly cautious to have a choice of a further distance, but Mercedes, Hyundai, and Ford (3 that I've tried recently) have a choice for a shorter gap which mirrors many driver preferences on the road.

Edit: I could say you follow way too far, but this is subjective. It's nice that other manufacturers allow a choice for a shorter distance, even if those who are far more cautious don't want to utilize it. Tesla's previous 1 follow distance was very good. The 2 was worse, the Aggressive is more like 3 or 4 previously.
 
For me, 1, would often be less than a full car length
This is false (at any speed above 20mph anyway - as you said we are talking about high speeds only here).

At 10mph this 15 feet would be 1 second which would be fine since stopping distance is 3ft (10 feet including 0.5sec reaction time)

At low speeds stopping distances are dramatically shorter (they go with square of speed not including reaction time) so significant decreases in distance (time) can safely be allowed rather than simple linear (constant time) decreases.

Anyway we’ll see what v11 brings and whether it fixes all the problems.
 
I rented a Sonata this week for work and the TACC left a tiny bit over a car length on the interstate. It was great.

It's fine for people who are overly cautious to have a choice of a further distance, but Mercedes, Hyundai, and Ford (3 that I've tried recently) have a choice for a shorter gap which mirrors many driver preferences on the road.
Yeah, it is all great until something bad happens, and then you end up with a multi-car pileup because everyone was following too closely. (Just look at the recent case where in a tunnel a Tesla slowed to a stop, and there was a 7 car pile-up behind them. Surely at least one of those vehicles was using a TACC system. But it didn't matter they were following too close, and couldn't stop in time.)

I think supplying an unsafe option is irresponsible of those OEMs. And could very well leave them open to liability. Tesla has always said safety is a top priority, and leaving enough following distance is safe.

Options are what I'm asking for.
It sounds like you have options. Buy a Hyundai, Ford, or Mercedes...
 
This is false (at any speed above 20mph anyway - as you said we are talking about high speeds only here).

At 10mph this 15 feet would be 1 second which would be fine since stopping distance is 3ft (10 feet including 0.5sec reaction time)

At low speeds stopping distances are dramatically shorter (they go with square of speed not including reaction time) so significant decreases in distance (time) can safely be allowed rather than simple linear (constant time) decreases.

Anyway we’ll see what v11 brings and whether it fixes all the problems.
It's not wrong.

It's not an absolute at 1 second, either. That's the general goal from Tesla, but there are times when 2 is 3 car lengths at 80 mph and maintains and others where it's 5-6 at 70 mph. That's another issue with Tesla's system is that it's inconsistent. I've put almost 50k miles on NoA, the 1 rarely allowed cars to merge in front of me...many others have stated the same.

With vision and 2-7, it was not the same. It's worse with v11.
 
It sounds like you have options. Buy a Hyundai, Ford, or Mercedes...
This is such a grade school rebuttal. "Just move to another country".

There's a reason why so many were upset about the removal of radar and the 1 setting. Teslarati (bad source, yes) said it was the most popular setting on interstate speeds. Most drivers when passing in the left lane, want to maintain a small gap. It's the reason this discussion is taking place.
 
That's another issue with Tesla's system is that it's inconsistent.
That’s what I keep saying! It’s a HUGE problem. It makes people behind very impatient and upset and causes people to cut in front. (It is likely due to them attempting to smooth out the TACC because this inconsistency makes the control problem easier.)
It's worse with v11.
We’ll see how it is with final slider settings.

Though if you actually want under 0.5s following time at speed over 60mph (your stated desire) you will never be happy since it is not available from any manufacturer and never will be.
 
I can easily merge into a 45-ft gap, no problem, at freeway speeds. (Three car lengths.)

At 80mph, this is 0.4 seconds.

This setting would be extremely unsafe. You’re not going to get it (and it has never existed).


You’re never going to satisfy all impatient drivers, but consistently keeping up with the car in front especially as speeds change is very important and goes a long way to soothing people behind. It’s critical that the car do it smoothly and consistently. Right now on v10 it does not.

I'm with Alan on this.

I try to be very aware of keeping up with traffic when in the left lane as a driver (and I like to think I'm successful). You don't have to follow super closely to keep up. I usually aim for 2-3 seconds follow time, but I'm hyper aware of not letting that get any longer because it gets frustrating to drivers behind (I'll absolutely speed, but I'm quite careful about following distance - seems to be the opposite "code of ethics" compared to other drivers, lol)

To realistically block someone jumping in front you have to follow no more than a second behind, maybe less, and I just don't see the need. If cars behind me are frustrated because of an extra 1.5 to 2 seconds of follow time and they can clearly see I'm keeping up with the lead car, then frankly that's on them and they need to get over it. I'm obviously not holding anyone up.

Edit: I can see an argument that with super-human reaction times, cars on TACC or Autopilot or similar can safely drive closer. Would love to see a test demonstrating that in a train of cars all following that close that if the lead car applies 100% full brakes, emergency stop, all the trailing cars can react in time and stop in their lane without colliding.
 
Would love to see a test demonstrating that in a train of cars all following that close that if the lead car applies 100% full brakes, emergency stop, all the trailing cars can react in time and stop in their lane without colliding.

The problem is that if there is just one non autonomous vehicle then there is a problem, because they can cheat by hitting the car in front and get a lot better deceleration than you can.

In fact that is basically the whole problem with following too closely (that and accumulated slow reaction times of drivers in front also cutting into your margin). If people couldn’t stop faster than tires allow there would be almost no problem.

This is where the SpaceX package comes in.

As a general rule you should expect the car in front to stop much faster than tires alone would allow (meaning they hit someone).