FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[JulienW]

Chat GPT hasn't surpassed human reasoning. It doesn't even know what is fake or real on the internet when it scours for answers...

And we humans never fall for fake info on the internet. Now back to the real Flat Earth society website for enlightenment.

 

[uscbucsfan]

And we humans never fall for fake info on the internet. Now back to the real Flat Earth society website for enlightenment.

The point is that Chat GPT is not using reasoning to discern the quality of the sources it's finding online. Not yet, anyway.

There are plenty of people that are able to parse through bullshit and then there are people that believe the Roadster will fly and Robotaxi is coming this year.

 

[Olle]

Chat GPT hasn't surpassed human reasoning. It doesn't even know what is fake or real on the internet when it scours for answers.

That's debatable. I get much better reasoning from GPT-4 than from most people. Maybe I hang with the wrong crowd . Some humans also don't know what's fake or real btw. We could argue about to what degree that is true, but my point was that very few experts had predicted chat GPT would be at its current level by now. I meant that as an analogy for the future of FSD.

But looking forward to Robotaxi is a pipedream at this point.

I respectfully disagree.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I get much better reasoning from GPT-4 than from most people. Some humans also don't know what's fake or real. We could argue about to what degree that is true, but my point was that very few experts had predicted chat GPT would be at its current level by now and tried to make an analogy for FSD.

It's a bad analogy because while Chat GPT is way ahead of schedule, FSD is the opposite and severely behind schedule with no light for completion in sight.

What is the timeline that you believe "Robotaxi" will be reality? Do you really believe it will be availible to all current Beta cars? What are the odds of Tesla delivery "Robotaxi" to existing cars in your opinion?

 

[Olle]

It's a bad analogy because while Chat GPT is way ahead of schedule,

I rest my case.

 

[sleepydoc]

No, the issue in the case of mist is zero wiping. I don’t care about extra wipes.

?
Are saying your issue is with it failing to wipe when the windshield is misted? I've seen that, too. it's almost like if you have a fine mist falling FSD gets used to it and it takes a higher threshold for it to start wiping. Other times it seems to start wiping for no reason and/or won't stop despite the fact that the windshield is clear (at least for the driver.)

 

[Larry Hutchinson]

I've noticed a few dedicated right turn lanes, like below, 11.3.6 is starting the turn and then coming to a near stop mid turn (red mark shows where the car starts slowing down), even with a green light, and given the lane is dedicated and not merging for some 100+ feet after the turn. The last two versions handled these intersections/turns properly, without slowing down.

View attachment 938178

Yup, in my case it is a traffic circle bypass. There is a crosswalk like yours but also has a green bicycle share the road painted symbol.
I wanted to use FSD-b there in order to report it but my wife did not want any part of it. I told her that I would not do it if anyone was behind and that i would disengage as soon as possible. But the car stopped so fast I could not disengage in time. I did make an attempt at reporting it but am not sure what I said was coherent
And I’m a bit in the doghouse.

 

[Knightshade]

What you're arguing here is fundamentally misguided. The assertion that a High Definition (HD) map needs to be exactly 10 cm accurate in order to qualify as an HD map is simply not being made. The metrics provided merely represent the specifications of their current technology - it's you who's attempting to enforce this standard.

I'm not attempting to enforce a standard.

I'm disproving your claim there is a standard.

Hence why we keep getting different definitions on what an "HD map" is depending whom you ask.

Which was the only actual claim I ever made, and have now proven twice, first with quotes from 5 different people in this very forum with 5 different answers--- and then when you moved the goalposts to only caring about "industry" people citing multiple different answers from them too.

The point is, the definition of an HD map for autonomous driving is not contingent on its precision or the technology used to create it - be it Lidar, camera or radar. Whether it's 1 cm, 5 cm, 10 cm, or 20 cm accurate, it doesn't matter. The crux of the matter is the ability for a car to localize in it - that is the fundamental and sole criterion for an HD map.

<citation required>

Also I think there was someone who said we should ignore any HD map definition from randos on this forum.... and I think it was you who said it

Yup, I don't think Tesla will ever provide a "free" level 3 or higher service. It will all be charged per mile (or subscription to Tesla insurance) to account for their liability.

Tesla owes (at least) L4, for "free" to everyone who bought FSD prior to roughly March 2019.

I've commented in the past that previous FSD versions seem to improve somewhat over time. It's unclear whether it's expectations tempering over time or something else but I've noticed several specific, identifiable items that improve so I think it's more than simply perception. It may be better map data, improvements in the neural nets or other data pushed to the car that FSD uses in decision making.

As discussed multiple times and confirmed by green, you can't change anything in the nns/firmware without a full update. Any "improvements" you notice on the same firmware are some combination of:

The map data/updates, which we more recently learned is pretty detailed/extensive and the most likely cause for most
or
Some environmental difference... sun was at a different angle, traffic density was different, etc so different input=different output
or
Wishful thinking

 

[clydeiii]

It's a bad analogy because while Chat GPT is way ahead of schedule, FSD is the opposite and severely behind schedule with no light for completion in sight.

What is the timeline that you believe "Robotaxi" will be reality? Do you really believe it will be availible to all current Beta cars? What are the odds of Tesla delivery "Robotaxi" to existing cars in your opinion?

Schedule?? When the solution to a problem is currently unknown, there can be no schedule. Just an attempt to solve it.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Schedule?? When the solution to a problem is currently unknown, there can be no schedule. Just an attempt to solve it.

Tell that to Elon who every year announces that FSD will be solved by the end of the year since 2016. He said it again at the investor meeting.

 

[powertoold]

Tesla owes (at least) L4, for "free" to everyone who bought FSD prior to roughly March 2019.

Right.... Tesla was totally thinking when they charged $2-3k for an unlimited L4 service where Tesla is liable. I'll wait for someone to bring this to court. Your line of logic on this matter doesn't align with reasonable business practice.

 

[Knightshade]

Right.... Tesla was totally thinking when they charged $2-3k for an unlimited L4 service where Tesla is liable.

I mean, that's literally what they described themselves selling. For years. In writing.

I'll wait for someone to bring this to court. Your line of logic on this matter doesn't align with reasonable business practice.

It aligns with the actual product they sold though. If you think Tesla did a dumb thing take that up with Tesla.

But the FSD product sold from 2016 through March 2019 is clearly describing a system that is (at least) L4. I think there's SOME debate to be had on if it's 5 or not.

The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat.

and

All you will need to do is gen in and tell your car where to go. If you don't say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs, and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

 

[SSDTester#1]

If there was an agreement I could sign, to waive Tesla from liability while the Junk is engaged, that would allow me to turn off the forsaken steering wheel jerking off nag and cabin camera micromanagement, I would be the first in line to sign it.

 

[EVNow]

If there was an agreement I could sign, to waive Tesla from liability while the Junk is engaged, that would allow me to turn off the forsaken steering wheel jerking off nag and cabin camera micromanagement, I would be the first in line to sign it.

You should petition NHTSA ....

 

[JHCCAZ]

If there was an agreement I could sign, to waive Tesla from liability while the Junk is engaged, that would allow me to turn off the forsaken steering wheel jerking off nag and cabin camera micromanagement, I would be the first in line to sign it.

Ah, but those features aren't there to protect Tesla from you in case you don't take full liability.

Those features are there to protect Tesla from the State of California, the US Department of Transportation and a giant pile of eager ambulance chasers.

Think about it. If you were Tesla, would you trust a lawyer who said "My trial plan is to point to @Ramphex and tell the jury 'Hey, it's on him! He said we could trust him and he don' need no stinkin' driver monitoring!' "

 

[clydeiii]

Tell that to Elon who every year announces that FSD will be solved by the end of the year since 2016. He said it again at the investor meeting.

I applaud his optimism! You act like it's a bad thing he thinks Tesla can solve this problem. No one else is even really trying.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I applaud his optimism! You act like it's a bad thing he thinks Tesla can solve this problem. No one else is even really trying.

1. Others absolutely are.
2. Optimism is 1 thing, but promises that he continues to fail on are another.

 

[clydeiii]

1. Others absolutely are.
2. Optimism is 1 thing, but promises that he continues to fail on are another.

"Promises"? Or estimates?
I would love to try out a competitor to Tesla in this space. Too bad I cannot buy tech like FSDb anywhere else. I want neural nets end-to-end, like FSDb is aiming to do.

 

[clydeiii]

"Promises"? Or estimates?
I would love to try out a competitor to Tesla in this space. Too bad I cannot buy tech like FSDb anywhere else. I want neural nets end-to-end, like FSDb is aiming to do.

As heard on Shareholder meeting livestream just now, "Elon's guess"... it's refreshing to see a CEO stick his neck out and predict the future, where most would be very conservative and say nothing.

 

[powertoold]

I mean, that's literally what they described themselves selling. For years. In writing.

Cool, where does it say unlimited and Tesla is liable?