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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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So just so everyone is on the same page for this discussion:

When there are videos posted of 0 intervention or 0 disengagement drives, those are cherry picked or edited to hide errors.

When there are videos posted showing errors, those are not cherry picked or edited to hide successes.

We should extrapolate error videos to show that FSD Beta is a huge, dangerous failure.

We should not extrapolate 0 disengagement videos to show that FSD Beta is successful.

Am I getting this right?
Perfect.
 
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So just so everyone is on the same page for this discussion:

When there are videos posted of 0 intervention or 0 disengagement drives, those are cherry picked or edited to hide errors.

When there are videos posted showing errors, those are not cherry picked or edited to hide successes.

We should extrapolate error videos to show that FSD Beta is a huge, dangerous failure.

We should not extrapolate 0 disengagement videos to show that FSD Beta is successful.

Am I getting this right?
It’s actually all about the errors. Giving credit to FSDj for doing what it is SUPPOSED to do is somewhat of a moot point. That’s like me taking credit for not doing things I shouldn’t do. “I never robbed a bank” or “I never killed anyone.”

The improvement plan isn’t about patting self on the back for everything that’s right, it’s a time to reflect on what’s wrong, whether it needs to be worked on, by when, and how.
 
Apropos to the title of this thread. . .

Is there a way to find out what mode/setting you are as in chill, average or assertive without changing the state? As best as I can tell right now the state changes as soon as you move the scroll wheel left or right. That brings up the display. This would imply that if moved the wheel left and I see "chill" as selected then I was in "average" but of course I wanted to be in "average" I would need move the wheel to the right after seeing the display.

Does anyone have a good summary on how each mode affects things? It seems at "average" or "chill" the car moves out of the "passing lane" where as in "assertive" it tends to stay. I'm not if this actually how it is supposed to behave or a misattribution.
 
Apropos to the title of this thread. . .

Is there a way to find out what mode/setting you are as in chill, average or assertive without changing the state? As best as I can tell right now the state changes as soon as you move the scroll wheel left or right. That brings up the display. This would imply that if moved the wheel left and I see "chill" as selected then I was in "average" but of course I wanted to be in "average" I would need move the wheel to the right after seeing the display.

Does anyone have a good summary on how each mode affects things? It seems at "average" or "chill" the car moves out of the "passing lane" where as in "assertive" it tends to stay. I'm not if this actually how it is supposed to behave or a misattribution.
Yeah the UI interaction there is illogical. The only way to check the mode without changing it is by looking in the main Autopilot settings page.
 
...the state changes as soon as you move the scroll wheel left or right. ... This would imply that if moved the wheel left and I see "chill" as selected then I was in "average"
Not necessarily, it could be that you were already in Chill, and there's no setting to the left of that so it just stays in Chill.
Yeah the UI interaction there is illogical. The only way to check the mode without changing it is by looking in the main Autopilot settings page.
Agreed. But like most people, I don't want to bring up the menus on top of the map or visualization.

So what I do now to avoid looking down there:
To be in Chill, left-click twice.
To be in Average, left-click twice then right-click once.
To be in Aggressive, right-click twice.

To set Minimal Lane Changes, you have to look down to hit the button after you manipulate the scroll wheel as above. Be quick or it will disappear and you'll have to start again.

I suppose that you may be able to program an S3XY button if you have those; I haven't checked into it. I also think the UI arrangement may change, as I haven't seen anyone praise how it works now.

If you have an accessory steering column display, there could be upcoming support depending on the manufacturer and model. I have the dual-round display and it was designed to show the standard Autopilot numeric follow-distance setting. It's now just stuck on "4" because that's the setting I had when I updated, and now FSDb is calling a different API routine for the new Chill|Average|Aggressive system.

So at some point, I will try to send in a support request for the display accessory, on the slim chance they will try to address it with a firmware update. But as of now, FSDb is a minority of the USA customer base, and the accessory display developers are in China where they don't even have FSDb yet. Maybe if the new settings become part of basic Autopilot, they'll realize they need to work on it.
 
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I’m actually curious how much you guys suck at driving if you think FSD is safer than you 😂😂
First, I've never said FSD alone was safer than me because it's not. But when supervised by a good driver FSD I believe is safer.
As to my driving, I got my license in 1968 and have a perfect driving record. Not even a minor fender bender and never had a moving violation. And I drive in greater Boston not the easiest place. I drive somewhat faster than the average driver but never crazy fast.

@Ramphex- What's your driving record?
 
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Not necessarily, it could be that you were already in Chill, and there's no setting to the left of that so it just stays in Chill.

Agreed. But like most people, I don't want to bring up the menus on top of the map or visualization.

So what I do now to avoid looking down there:
To be in Chill, left-click twice.
To be in Average, left-click twice then right-click once.
To be in Aggressive, right-click twice.

To set Minimal Lane Changes, you have to look down to hit the button after you manipulate the scroll wheel as above. Be quick or it will disappear and you'll have to start again.

I suppose that you may be able to program an S3XY button if you have those; I haven't checked into it. I also think the UI arrangement may change, as I haven't seen anyone praise how it works now.

If you have an accessory steering column display, there could be upcoming support depending on the manufacturer and model. I have the dual-round display and it was designed to show the standard Autopilot numeric follow-distance setting. It's now just stuck on "4" because that's the setting I had when I updated, and now FSDb is calling a different API routine for the new Chill|Average|Aggressive system.

So at some point, I will try to send in a support request for the display accessory, on the slim chance they will try to address it with a firmware update. But as of now, FSDb is a minority of the USA customer base, and the accessory display developers are in China where they don't even have FSDb yet. Maybe if the new settings become part of basic Autopilot, they'll realize they need to work on it.
My proposal:

First method:
1. First left/right click just shows the current state.
2. Additional left/right click changes to the new state.

Second method:
Tesla changes the UI to always show the current state, maybe on the upper right or upper left of the screen.
Left/right click changes to the new state.

There are many other things Tesla can change on the screen to make the driver feel more comfortable.

Currently, the buttons for Apple Music app are not very good. First they are on the upper right of the screen: it's difficult to reach when driving.
Secondly, the logout button is too close to the Browse button. If the driver is not very careful, Apple Music is disabled for the entire trip. I made mistake once on freeway. I had to exit freeway to re-login. It was a pain. Perhaps Logout should not be shown when the car is not in park mode. Repeated selection of a playlist is also a pain.

If any function the user has to use more than 2 clicks to get when driving is bad.

Apple Music app UI on Android Auto is also bad. App Music app UI written by Apple for Windows and cellphones is horrible.
 
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Not necessarily, it could be that you were already in Chill, and there's no setting to the left of that so it just stays in Chill.

Agreed. But like most people, I don't want to bring up the menus on top of the map or visualization.

So what I do now to avoid looking down there:
To be in Chill, left-click twice.
To be in Average, left-click twice then right-click once.
To be in Aggressive, right-click twice.

To set Minimal Lane Changes, you have to look down to hit the button after you manipulate the scroll wheel as above. Be quick or it will disappear and you'll have to start again.

I suppose that you may be able to program an S3XY button if you have those; I haven't checked into it. I also think the UI arrangement may change, as I haven't seen anyone praise how it works now.

If you have an accessory steering column display, there could be upcoming support depending on the manufacturer and model. I have the dual-round display and it was designed to show the standard Autopilot numeric follow-distance setting. It's now just stuck on "4" because that's the setting I had when I updated, and now FSDb is calling a different API routine for the new Chill|Average|Aggressive system.

So at some point, I will try to send in a support request for the display accessory, on the slim chance they will try to address it with a firmware update. But as of now, FSDb is a minority of the USA customer base, and the accessory display developers are in China where they don't even have FSDb yet. Maybe if the new settings become part of basic Autopilot, they'll realize they need to work on it.
Don’t think the scroll wheel does anything for “chill” mode. I believe it’s only for FSD configure. I click right one time, select average and minimum lane changes and done. Issue is it reverts the next time you turn on car. No double or other clicking required. Also doesn’t set chill.
 
Or they had different goals/plans.
Or they were not willing to take the financial risk.
Or...

I mean, that second one is the same thing I said--- if they had your (or Mercedes) confidence in the system it'd be fine to do L3 as there wouldn't be financial risk- they trust it.


I’m actually curious how much you guys suck at driving if you think FSD is safer than you 😂😂

I'm curious why your argument is so bad you have to build strawmen out of things nobody ever said here.

Folks have said human PLUS FSDb is safer than human. And Teslas stats appear to agree with that claim given the accident rate of that combo is significantly lower than humans alone.
 
No, there’s a difference. Think about it.


The only difference thinking about it suggests is the idea Mercedes doesn't care if they get sued for using a system they don't believe is safe.

Which seems unlikely to be true?

Because otherwise they believe it IS safe and there's no noteworthy financial risk.

Tesla feeling there IS a significant financial risk means they don't think it's safe enough to deploy that way.
 
The only difference thinking about it suggests is the idea Mercedes doesn't care if they get sued for using a system they don't believe is safe.

Which seems unlikely to be true?

Because otherwise they believe it IS safe and there's no noteworthy financial risk.

I was thinking of it like the Recall Coordinator's Formula from Fight Club:

Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don't do one.

Only difference is that X in this case is the value of the positive PR Mercedes gets for releasing the feature. Mercedes has done the math, and concluded that A will be sufficiently small (small number of vehicles equipped with the feature, and few number of people driving on roads with the conditions required to enable it), such that A x B x C will be less than X.

Regardless of the actual failure rate, the math is very different for Tesla because A will be much larger, unless they also geo-fence a L3 release. And Tesla seems opposed to geo-fencing as a matter of principle.
 
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I don

I don't use iCloud and have no interest in adding yet another sign in account.
You don’t have to sign in to anything, you literally just click the link and watch the video. If you bothered to click on it, you would’ve known that, but instead you just defend the Junk without even bothering to attempt to watch the videos.
First, I've never said FSD alone was safer than me because it's not. But when supervised by a good driver FSD I believe is safer.
As to my driving, I got my license in 1968 and have a perfect driving record. Not even a minor fender bender and never had a moving violation. And I drive in greater Boston not the easiest place. I drive somewhat faster than the average driver but never crazy fast.

@Ramphex- What's your driving record?

I mean, that second one is the same thing I said--- if they had your (or Mercedes) confidence in the system it'd be fine to do L3 as there wouldn't be financial risk- they trust it.




I'm curious why your argument is so bad you have to build strawmen out of things nobody ever said here.

Folks have said human PLUS FSDb is safer than human. And Teslas stats appear to agree with that claim given the accident rate of that combo is significantly lower than humans alone.
I’ll write my response to both. Human plus FSDj is safer than just human? Wowzers. Two humans driving is also safer than one. Like two pilots flying instead of one. Anymore useless Snapple facts to share? Do you also want to tell me that driving a car with anti-lock brakes is safer? And that properly inflating tires is also safer? Oh and it’s also safer to drive at night with clean headlights. It is also safer to look in both directions when going through a 4 way intersection.

The Junk was supposed to take over the driving. Full Self Driving. It does NOT do that. So instead of giving it participation trophies, how about we judge it for what it’s supposed to be vs what it is and how long it’s taken to get there vs lies we were told.
 
@aronth5 posting the links again, so you could not watch them, and instead just blindly defend that FSD is pure excellence.



 
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You don’t have to sign in to anything, you literally just click the link and watch the video. If you bothered to click on it, you would’ve known that, but instead you just defend the Junk without even bothering to attempt to watch the videos.



I’ll write my response to both. Human plus FSDj is safer than just human? Wowzers. Two humans driving is also safer than one. Like two pilots flying instead of one. Anymore useless Snapple facts to share? Do you also want to tell me that driving a car with anti-lock brakes is safer? And that properly inflating tires is also safer? Oh and it’s also safer to drive at night with clean headlights. It is also safer to look in both directions when going through a 4 way intersection.

The Junk was supposed to take over the driving. Full Self Driving. It does NOT do that. So instead of giving it participation trophies, how about we judge it for what it’s supposed to be vs what it is and how long it’s taken to get there vs lies we were told.
Yep. If you had a new driver sitting in your lap driving the car, - while you could take over at any time, you would be a safer driver, too, because you’d be hyper aware and ready to take over out of sheer fear. That’s FSDj for you. To reiterate an earlier point, Tesla makes it sound like FSDj makes the car safer. No. It makes the driver safer. Is that what we really wanted? I sure as heck didn’t buy FSDj so that I’d have to be even more on my toes/alert every single drive it is used.
 
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Yep. If you had a new driver sitting in your lap driving the car, - while you could take over at any time, you would be a safer driver, too, because you’d be hyper aware and ready to take over out of sheer fear. That’s FSDj for you. To reiterate an earlier point, Tesla makes it sound like FSDj makes the car safer. No. It makes the driver safer. Is that what we really wanted? I sure as heck didn’t buy FSDj so that I’d have to be even more on my toes/alert every single drive it is used.
It is also debatable on whether it’s easier to just drive manually or supervise software that is supervising you, with a cabin camera, supervising it attempt to drive.