FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[kabin]

This weekend FSD 11.4.7 release is cancelled due to Hilary hurricane.

Hurricane Hilary live updates: SoCal communities preparing for heavy rain, severe flooding

Southern California is bracing for heavy rain as Hurricane Hilary continues to barrel up the Pacific coast, prompting many communities to prepare for severe flooding.

abc7.com

That makes sense.

Socal better batten down the hatches. They expect a year's worth of rain this weekend.

 

[jebinc]

That makes sense.

Socal better batten down the hatches. They expect a year's worth of rain this weekend.

They need the rain!

 

[Dewg]

That makes sense.

Socal better batten down the hatches. They expect a year's worth of rain this weekend.

Which means we'll get a little breeze and some light rain or heavy drizzle

 

[rlsd]

Which means we'll get a little breeze and some light rain or heavy drizzle

But I will go to hot Houston this weekend. I wonder I should park my car in the airport.

 

[Dewg]

But I will go to hot Houston this weekend. I wonder I should park my car in the airport.

Your car will be filthy when you get back

 

[rlsd]

Your car will be filthy when you get back

It's in a structure parking but I am concerned about the hurricane. The parking structure is near the ocean area. I may have to park on the roof top if there is no available space. Will the flood set the battery on fire like it happened in Florida earlier this year?

 

[tivoboy]

Is updating FSD beta even something Tesla does anymore? I’m on 2023.7.20 for what about two months now? Doesn’t really seem like anything new at all in the wild or even on deck? Are we just waiting for “total AI totally all the AI all the time!” V12?

 

[Dewg]

It's in a structure parking but I am concerned about the hurricane. The parking structure is near the ocean area. I may have to park on the roof top if there is no available space. Will the flood set the battery on fire like it happened in Florida earlier this year?

Your car will be fine, especially on the roof. If there is any flooding, it will subside quickly as you're near the ocean.

 

[MP3Mike]

Is updating FSD beta even something Tesla does anymore? I’m on 2023.7.20 for what about two months now? Doesn’t really seem like anything new at all in the wild or even on deck? Are we just waiting for “total AI totally all the AI all the time!” V12?

Yeah, they still update it. I've been on 2023.7.26 (FSDb 11.4.6) for just over 3 weeks.

Elon was hoping that FSDb 11.4.7 would come out about now, but it appears to be late.

 

[Tronguy]

It's in a structure parking but I am concerned about the hurricane. The parking structure is near the ocean area. I may have to park on the roof top if there is no available space. Will the flood set the battery on fire like it happened in Florida earlier this year?

A storm surge will destroy any car, ICE or otherwise, if the water gets higher than the wheel hubs.

If your car is on the roof of a parking structure that won’t be a problem. However, if you’re talking > 100 mph winds, then your car can get hit by fast moving debris. A 2x4 at 100 mph can do stuff. A multilevel parking garage with walls could help, I guess.

About the only other thing you might be worried about would be salt water spray. But that’s probably not an issue: there’s cars north of the Mason-Dixon Line that live with salt spray all winter and they don’t melt on the spot.

Although I do remember pictures of cars on the USN base in Norfolk, VA, that were parked on the edge of the pier in winter. The freezing salt spray coming over the edge of the pier buried some of those cars in a couple of feet of salty ice. Not a problem in Houston, I bet .

 

[EVNow]

Obviously this was not true since Elon stated "...within A week...". Clearly this week is not A week and A week is "two weeks" away. How could this be misread since Elon's XeyTweet was concise?

I have been on a long 2 month vacation and we are still on the same 11.4.4 … but ofcourse v12 will be great.

 

[JulienW]

I have been on a long 2 month vacation and we are still on the same 11.4.4 … but ofcourse v12 will be great.

HE IS back. Even jebinc was concerned about were you were. 2 months vacation. Are you sure you live in the US? We don't take vacations. Coincidentally in the background playing now is the Plant Money podcast and it is about how we in the US don't take much vacation or time off.

Also you will probably need to take a year long vacation to have any chance for V12.

 

[sleepydoc]

Agree, I'll assume it's BS for now

Nothing showing up on Teslafi, FWIW

 

[sleepydoc]

Which means we'll get a little breeze and some light rain or heavy drizzle

Like he said…a year’s worth of rain!

 

[kabin]

Like he said…a year’s worth of rain!

​

No, he did not.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/18/weather/hurricane-hilary-rain-flooding-forecast-friday/

 

[Snerruc]

My car is downloading 23.7.20 now. I have FSD. What is this?

 

[willow_hiller]

My car is downloading 23.7.20 now. I have FSD. What is this?

v11.4.4 : TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker

Are you coming from FSD Beta v11.3.6?

 

[legendsk]

That makes sense.

Socal better batten down the hatches. They expect a year's worth of rain this weekend.

So solly! "We said we would release it 'next week', but now we can't because they are forecasting rain the week after that." It sure seems like there is a deliberate effort to prevent Tesla from meeting their targets. Maybe the stock price is only reflecting people's concern about Tesla's long term survival when even the environment is poised against them?

 

[kabin]

So solly! "We said we would release it 'next week', but now we can't because they are forecasting rain the week after that." It sure seems like there is a deliberate effort to prevent Tesla from meeting their targets. Maybe the stock price is only reflecting people's concern about Tesla's long term survival when even the environment is poised against them?

It will get interesting if 11.4.7 also fails to make the cut. Teslascope reported 11.4.6's initial employee release to be almost a month ago now.

Otherwise the stock price has a few challenges in the short term but I'm still nibbling on it as it drops. It's not looking like FSD will be Elon's financial savior.

 

[JulienW]

Elon in Nov. 11.4.420 is going wide in a week or so. It is so mind blowing it should be called lucky v13.

Those poor new HW4 car buyers will be waiting and waiting and waiting to try FSD Beta and us 11.4.x testers are stuck on 23.7.x until f'en who knows when.