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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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He’s directly damaging the reputation of the company and making it seem as if they can literally NEVER meet their development goals.
The truth is until the board of directors decides Musk is more harm than good he will remain. Right now any publicity is still good publicity. Elon is still a colorful nut. Jobs was too, but that's not why he was removed, or why he was brought back.
 
Sarcasm aside how much longer is he going to be allowed to make false promises? He’s directly damaging the reputation of the company and making it seem as if they can literally NEVER meet their development goals.
I see this frequently - that Tesla is being damaged. And yet, Tesla is the #1 seller, and posts record sales quarter after quarter. Their brand loyalty (repeat buyers) surpassed even BMW.

Why change anything if the cars are selling like hotcakes? People don't seem to be annoyed, or they'd jump ship and buy another car from a different manufacturer. That's how the free market works.
 
Teslas are very popular here in Montana. I get asked about mine constantly. Mostly people want to know how long it takes to charge. When I put out a feeler about the Elon controversy I rarely even get acknowledgment, and never recognition of a negative effect on the product/cars.
This is common. Most people don't buy a Toyota and then go follow the CEO of Toyota on Twitter/X. Same for most big purchases like refrigerators or high end electronics. It's just fans and enthusiasts that typically do so.
 
This.
Highway L3 is doable with a few improvements so Tesla so implement that as phase 1 while you work on L3 city/streets. Then work on L4/L5.
I just drove 45 minutes on the highway. How much better would that drive had been if I could have legally read/texted and/or watched a video.
Why aren't owners pushing for a phased aprpoach?
Agree 100%. I think this is actually what Tesla will end up doing when push comes to shove. They will release an L2/L3 FSD perhaps sometime next year - definitely for highway, possibly for city streets. I think the L4/L5 is really still a ways out - just too many scenarios to compensate for to truly provide L4/L5 guaranteed driverless capability especially as long as there are still human drivers in play. Honestly I wonder if any L4/L5 driverless system will ultimately require IOT type communication modules installed in every registered vehicle that will allow all vehicles on the road within a certain vicinity of one another to proactively communicate precise location data and planned routing data to help facilitate intelligent transiting function - i.e. to allow all vehicles to coordinate routes/movement through intersections, especially in urban areas or crowded highways.

I just enabled FSD yesterday on our 2023 MY LR - using 11.3.6 on 2023.26.7. I'm not using the FSBb variant. Yesterday I drove a round trip of 206 miles right afterward. I used EAP for the first leg of the trip - then pulled over and enabled FSD and used it for the remaining portion of the first leg. I had about five phantom braking events, a few odd lane change events (including two where FSD tried to move into a turn lane - thinking it was an actual highway lane - strange). I had a few disengagements as well - one at a four way blinking light stop - it was just taking too long to go at a crowded four way intersection - and the second was a four way stop-sign intersection where it start pulling out at the same time as an oncoming car making a left turn - it clearly didn't see the blinker on the car so I had to intervene and stop quickly to allow the car to complete the left turn. I then used FSD for the entire 103 mile drive home - during dusk/dark. Seems to perform better in the dark - especially with regard to phantom braking events. The other oddity I noticed is that FSD seems to want to stay in the left lane - and will often change into the left lane - for no good reason when no other vehicles are around - despite the fact that in our state (and many other states) the left hand lane is clearly marked as a passing only lane - and to stay in the right lane when not passing. I had to enable the temporary feature to minimize lane changes to avoid this issue repeatedly occurring.

Our next trip is scheduled over the Labor day weekend with a distance of roughly 275 miles each direction - during which I plan to use FSD again. Overall it seems like decent software, but it's buggy at the same time. I'd imagine FSDb is better - especially on city streets and navigating left hand turns and crowded intersections. I may consider joining the FSDb if we get an invite between now and 8/31 - I don't plan on keeping FSD enabled beyond the 30 day window as it's not worth $200/month on it's own.

On the money issue, I guess it surprises me that anyone would pay $15k up front for something that isn't proven. $15k/200=75 months. That's your breakeven, not including any opportunity cost for paying 15k up front mind you - which could be considerable over a 75 month time period. I doubt most Tesla owners will keep their vehicles beyond 75 months on average - and since FSD is tied to the vehicle and not to the owner - it makes even less sense to pay up front. If you want FSD - pay monthly - especially if you're the type not to keep your vehicles for more than seven years on average. Perhaps back when FSD was only 5k or 6k it might have been worth it - but at 15k? Of course, YMMV. :cool:
 
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The hilarious-not-so-hilarious part about this well-written post is that we aren’t getting paid to do this job for Tesla, quite the opposite: WE PAID THEM to be beta testers and improve their product!

I’m not saying FSD should be free once it’s truly FULLY SELF DRIVING (at L4 or whatever level makes sense), but until then it’s difficult to swallow that we’ve paid so much for a largely unfinished product (referring to city streets AP).

I think this is why there’s so much debate about all the slow progress etc. I’ll bet that if Tesla made FSD beta free until it was ACTUALLY FSD (L4 or whatever), there would be a lot fewer complaints here.
Do you complain about Post GrapeNuts cereal because it contains neither grapes nor nuts?

FSD is a product name, not a feature list. Besides, it already steers, goes, stops, turns. It is not fully autonomous, but it does fully self drive. While Elon has made statements that it may someday be robotaxi capable, I've yet to see a statement that would constitute a promise. And I'm not sure I understand the market for such anyway, other vendors having failed to scale up in spite of years of limited trials.

Conflating FSD with fully autonomous has caused plenty of confusion. Similar was the reaction to Tesla naming it's driver assistance "Auto Pilot". That reaction was odd, because real aircraft autopilots do not do what Tesla critics complained that their cars could not do. In my plane, if I set it to fly west at 5,000 feet altitude, it would crash us into the Sierra Nevada mountains without complaint.

I suspect that much of this confusion originates from the cottage industry of detractors, O'Dowd among them. There have been short sellers investing in stock price declines while pushing negative narratives. Too, the general press loves to report Tesla crashes and stupid Tesla driver tricks. Click bait sells, and makes money for media, social and traditional. I'm not saying that Tesla's never crash, but given 30,000+ fatalities every year on US roads, it is Tesla crashes that make page one. Used to at least, less so lately. Anyway, we all see that stuff, and sometimes we mistake it for useful information.

Several features of Tesla cars are still called beta, and many other features are also still evolving. Any owner who pretends not to know this is ignoring one of the breakthroughs these cars pioneered, downloaded free upgrades. Toyota wanted $200 for an updated DVD rom for my Prius nav map. And FSD has always included functioning features not included in the standard autopilot, such as NoA and auto lane changes. These were worth what I paid for FSD in 2020. City streets are gravy as far as I am concerned. If it eventually qualifies as a designated driver, that'll just let me drink more, probably not really a good thing. ;-) Avoiding airport parking fees, OK, but $15K is a lot of parking fees.
 
The "debate"

The debate is over what the word safe means. You might have a heart attack or a stroke and disengage when FSDb does something "unsafe" that I might just let play out. You might believe that no one in their right mind would let that maneuver proceed and I might just say not so bad, I can still correct if needed. My confidence driving in complexity might be very different from yours. I drove a taxi in New York City for much of the 70's and a little I almost hit/got hit by a car constantly just seems normal. When FSDb does something a bit off it scares the bejeebus out of my wife, me, I just say, not so bad, I got this.


Very well said!

That's why I keep going back to actual accidents--- because out of 400k people there's no way you don't have a decent % of them who are NOT hyper-vigiliantly disengaging any time it does anything the slightest bit odd.... so the narrative for the more cautious folks that it does SOMETHING DANGEROUS EVERY MINUTE does not appear supported by the known facts.

It may well do something that often they, personally, aren't comfortable with so they proactively disengage a LOT more often than someone more comfortable with what it's doing might... but since the guy who did NOT disengage nearly that often is ALSO not getting into accidents it suggests that first group is simply over-cautious.




The driver is ultimately responsible but the driver can also be distracted which is one of the main arguments for using FSD. If FSD isn't safer

but it is safer based on all available data (rather than individual opinions)

Certainly it's MORE safer with a driver paying attention- but that's always true regardless of FSD being there or not.
 
The "debate"

The debate is over what the word safe means. You might have a heart attack or a stroke and disengage when FSDb does something "unsafe" that I might just let play out. You might believe that no one in their right mind would let that maneuver proceed and I might just say not so bad, I can still correct if needed. My confidence driving in complexity might be very different from yours. I drove a taxi in New York City for much of the 70's and a little I almost hit/got hit by a car constantly just seems normal. When FSDb does something a bit off it scares the bejeebus out of my wife, me, I just say, not so bad, I got this.

I was driving our 4Runner yesterday and noted it was very unsafe. If I didn't turn the steering wheel constantly or apply the brakes like whenever, it would have driven right off the road. Talk about unsafe. We have, however, seen a real uptick in emergency of heart attacks and strokes attributed to FSDb. There are a lot of delicate hearts and brains out there..........
I quit reading after
I drove a taxi in New York City for much of the 70's
You talkn to me????
 
I see this frequently - that Tesla is being damaged. And yet, Tesla is the #1 seller, and posts record sales quarter after quarter. Their brand loyalty (repeat buyers) surpassed even BMW.

Why change anything if the cars are selling like hotcakes? People don't seem to be annoyed, or they'd jump ship and buy another car from a different manufacturer. That's how the free market works.
what's this got to do with Grape Nuts? Didn't doc already address this?

Sorry, I've been waiting for 91 days for them to update this latest j, I'm becoming sullen.
 
I quit reading after

You talkn to me????
Taxi driver did come out when I was on the job. And De Niro actually got a hack license at the time, same as the one I still have in a box somewhere. De Niro drove for a bit in preparation for the film. The only part of that film I found to be realistic of the job was the way he sized up passengers in the rearview mirror, impossible to explain but that look said, now that's the job. I preferred De Niro in Mean Streets, also a Scorsese film with Harry Keitel.