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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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I don't know worse or good .... but here is my position.

It is absolutely atrocious that in 2023 we have cars that will slam into things killing or injuring 10s of thousands of people. It would be possible with current technology to cheaply implement collision avoidance / slowdown. It should be mandatory on all cars. We have to accept some unnecessary slowdowns (false positives) as a collateral damage. Just like we have accepted restraint by seatbelts.
If we really cared about global numbers, there's a lot that can be done in developing countries where accident and fatality rates per capita are far far higher than in North America

In Somalia, statistically 7 of every 100 vehicles you see will be involved in a fatality
 
I have a HW4 X on 11.4.4 and have never had a dry wipe (in the car at least).

For the wipers, we need to be careful to not miss the forest for the trees here. We're on the cusp of SAE Level 4-5 robotaxis, and a windshield won't even be necessary for vehicles that are being entirely driven by AI + Vision.

Next gen vehicle likely won't have a steering wheel, won't have pedals, and probably won't even have a windshield, so Tesla should direct its efforts thusly
@AndrewZ Telsa will sell far more next gen vehicles with a steering wheel and pedals then the robotaxi vehicle. Estimates are up to 5 million per year of the former when you factor in all the additional locations (India, S. America, Europe, Far East etc) Tesla has no chose but to address the standard vehicle along with the robotaxi.

Just ask yourself this question. How many members of this forum are going to give up their vehicle for a robotaxi? A fairly small percentage IMO.
 
@AndrewZ Telsa will sell far more next gen vehicles with a steering wheel and pedals then the robotaxi vehicle. Estimates are up to 5 million per year of the former when you factor in all the additional locations (India, S. America, Europe, Far East etc) Tesla has no chose but to address the standard vehicle along with the robotaxi.

Just ask yourself this question. How many members of this forum are going to give up their vehicle for a robotaxi? A fairly small percentage IMO.
In that case Tesla would probably push an update to the existing fleet that makes the wipers even more obnoxious to spur robotaxi sales
 
@AndrewZ Telsa will sell far more next gen vehicles with a steering wheel and pedals then the robotaxi vehicle. Estimates are up to 5 million per year of the former when you factor in all the additional locations (India, S. America, Europe, Far East etc) Tesla has no chose but to address the standard vehicle along with the robotaxi.

Just ask yourself this question. How many members of this forum are going to give up their vehicle for a robotaxi? A fairly small percentage IMO.
Nearly zero. And if the vehicle is financed, I don’t see the lender or insurer allowing robotaxi use - of their asset!
 
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Still doesn’t handle flashing reds. Hopefully this new version will. Really have to push through it with the accelerator. If you lightly push it will go, but then stop in the middle of the intersection (and even AFTER the intersection!). Had some time to actually experiment since no traffic was behind. No construction.

Seems like not that hard a problem, but I guess it is outside the design space. Maybe end to end will fix it.

 
Still doesn’t handle flashing reds. Hopefully this new version will. Really have to push through it with the accelerator. If you lightly push it will go, but then stop in the middle of the intersection (and even AFTER the intersection!). Had some time to actually experiment since no traffic was behind. No construction.

Seems like not that hard a problem, but I guess it is outside the design space. Maybe end to end will fix it.

I'm gonna see if I can hit that up today - I'm at UTC mall, so it's just a quick drive down Miramar.
 
I'm gonna see if I can hit that up today - I'm at UTC mall, so it's just a quick drive down Miramar.
You’ll need to do it at night when they disable the lights - and you need to get past the construction so you’re in a wide open road with no cones (not a fair test if you’re in totally the wrong lane, though the behavior is the same - have had ample opportunities for both). The exact location changes every night, depending on where they are putting in the poop water pipes.

I certainly hope you get the same results, otherwise I’ll have to actually take a video! And no one wants to do that.
As I said, it worked fine for the one time I came across flashing reds. So they aren't totally unsupported.
Yep. That’s why I included the location. Construction zone (no cones), three lanes of traffic. Navigating straight through of course.

I had the same problem on Calle Cristobal a year ago or so (two lanes). Much older version though. I do not recall it ever going through a flashing red. I have never encountered one with a single lane of traffic each direction though.
 
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You’ll need to do it at night when they disable the lights - and you need to get past the construction so you’re in a wide open road with no cones (not a fair test if you’re in totally the wrong lane, though the behavior is the same - have had ample opportunities for both). The exact location changes every night.

I certainly hope you get the same results, otherwise I’ll have to actually take a video! And no one wants to do that.

Yep. That’s why I included the location. Construction zone (no cones), three lanes of traffic. Navigating straight through of course.
Would be nice to know if either of you are driving an S or X. Seems like performance is crappier on S/X geometry vehicles, than 3/Y. Just a working hypothesis…
 
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You’ll need to do it at night when they disable the lights - and you need to get past the construction so you’re in a wide open road with no cones (not a fair test if you’re in totally the wrong lane, though the behavior is the same - have had ample opportunities for both). The exact location changes every night, depending on where they are putting in the poop water pipes.

I certainly hope you get the same results, otherwise I’ll have to actually take a video! And no one wants to do that.

Yep. That’s why I included the location. Construction zone (no cones), three lanes of traffic. Navigating straight through of course.

I had the same problem on Calle Cristobal a year ago or so (two lanes). Much older version though. I do not recall it ever going through a flashing red. I have never encountered one with a single lane of traffic each direction though.
I'm only down for the day, leaving back to OC in an hour, so I don't think I can test. ☹️
 
Would be nice to know if either of you are driving an S or X. Seems like performance is crappier on S/X geometry vehicles, than 3/Y. Just a working hypothesis…
My signature remains unchanged! Model 3.

This is just a limitation of FSD Beta. I’m confident that no vehicle running my software version would proceed in this case - I have not heard anyone report otherwise. I am sure there are other very different flashing light situations which are handled fine, though I have never encountered one of those.

It’s probably intentional. It’s potentially extremely hazardous, though usually innocuous in my specific situation.

What I really want to see is how it does in the dark when the light is completely out. More rare. I have had that situation once but was not using it.
 
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Try this: Don't put your hands on the steering wheel when you engage FSD, do nothing while the system asked you to put hands on the steering wheel. The system should engage as if its OK. Then when warnings comes just touch the steering wheel lightly until you feel some resistance and the warning goes away.

Also don't keep your head still and stare to the front. Move your head frequently.

Hope this helps. If not, you may want to schedule a service to check on you front cameras, and the steering sensor. There were some reports of MY camera module not installed correctly.
I know that on the hardware 4 interior camera if your hand is near the wheel ready to grab (or maybe it thinks I’m actually holding the wheel) it will never nag. I usually make a half fist resting on my knee by the wheel and I won’t get a nag the entire trip. I see that hardware 3s interior camera seems to crop out the bottom half. Maybe they thought they could monitor attention only then and decided to make the camera see the entire wheel. It only seems to go by my hand placement and only throws a nag if I look away for a while. I can close one eye and turn my head slightly to the left to trigger it.
 
I have a couple of intersections where it also works fine with flashing reds. It's flashing yellows that I find more of a problem. Just very inconsistent with how well FSD responds to them.
Presumably these are normal flashing red intersections (either all ways or two ways?). My case is a normally traffic-light-controlled intersection, multi lanes, which is flashing red. (Or off. Presumably similar behavior if it detects it.)