FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[MarcG]

This is new for me.. light rain, wet roads, driving on a limited access freeway and max AP speed is limited to speed limit (65mph). FSD is now not allowing me to increase max speed at all.

 

[Dewg]

There have been over three years of regressions.

So, just over 3 years ago, in your experience, the system operated significantly better than today, and it's been downhill ever since?

How many years will this community put up with this junk?

Without accepting your premise, I'd say until the market produces a competing product that can drive us at L2 or higher on freeways, highways, and city streets. Currently we have some freeway options, with limited ODDs, but that's about it.

 

[PR0FESSOR]

I disagree. Recent Tesla stock drops are a function of at least a handful of recent major news articles associated with Musk:

1) A front page spread in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) outlining his rampant drug use.
2) Tesla is losing ground to Chinese EV manufacturer BYD
3) A relatively unflattering comparison between Musk and Trump (again in the WSJ)
4) Hertz is dumping Teslas as fast as they can due to Musk’s price drops causing them to be caught upside down, and increased repair and collision expenses.

An additional factor is Musk’s inability control his mouth. Whether it is drugs, narcissism, mental illness, or a myriad of other potential factors; Musk’s mouth is out of control. If it were not for the fact that some on his board are his drug buddies (refer to WSJ article), I think he would be on his way out. As it is, we will have to wait for a huge catastrophic mouth event for him to get dumped. With his ketamine use, I predict his early demise and an upward jump in stock price.

Joe

Yearly options expire on Jan 19th with a fairly significant inflection point at 225 creating an incentive for market makers to push below that level. I think most downward pressure right now is somewhat artificial.

 

[rlsd]

Which Ford car model can drive itself without the owner/driver?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746099010845225106

 

[Supcom]

Which Ford car model can drive itself without the owner/driver?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746099010845225106

The real motivation that will lead to L5 vehicles!

 

[rlsd]

The real motivation that will lead to L5 vehicles!

I am ready to watch Leave the Owners Behind on Netflix.

 

[jebinc]

So, just over 3 years ago, in your experience, the system operated significantly better than today, and it's been downhill ever since?


Without accepting your premise, I'd say until the market produces a competing product that can drive us at L2 or higher on freeways, highways, and city streets. Currently we have some freeway options, with limited ODDs, but that's about it.

My point was, with every release, the release notes state all these different percent improvement areas, yet the talk here (release after release) is about all the regressions, or “one step forward, two steps back” experiences.

I was an OG 10.2/3 beta tester from day one. Today, I can’t say I feel any more confident letting FSDj drive than I did back then.

Sure, Telsa has added features, improved visualizations and more, but my knuckles are as white today, as they were three years ago, when FSDj is driving.

Repeatability, reliability, predictability is still nowhere to be found with this “product”. That was the point I was trying to make (albeit, sarcastically).

 

[jebinc]

I disagree. Recent Tesla stock drops are a function of at least a handful of recent major news articles associated with Musk:

1) A front page spread in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) outlining his rampant drug use.
2) Tesla is losing ground to Chinese EV manufacturer BYD
3) A relatively unflattering comparison between Musk and Trump (again in the WSJ)
4) Hertz is dumping Teslas as fast as they can due to Musk’s price drops causing them to be caught upside down, and increased repair and collision expenses.

An additional factor is Musk’s inability control his mouth. Whether it is drugs, narcissism, mental illness, or a myriad of other potential factors; Musk’s mouth is out of control. If it were not for the fact that some on his board are his drug buddies (refer to WSJ article), I think he would be on his way out. As it is, we will have to wait for a huge catastrophic mouth event for him to get dumped. With his ketamine use, I predict his early demise and an upward jump in stock price.

Joe

Nice summary, Joe. Link to article, please.

But remember, some here subscribe to the, “Never let the facts ruin a good story,” philosophy.

 

[Dewg]

yet the talk here (release after release) is about all the regressions, or “one step forward, two steps back” experiences.

Even this doesn't make sense. If every release is 1 step forward and 2 steps back, you eventually go negative. I 100% think there are cars out there that have something wrong with them, and these cars will never improve, release after release. However, the majority of cars are "average" and have experienced improvement over the years. And then there are the unicorn cars that seem to operate very well, and they see significant improvement over the years.

When I first joined FSD Beta, the car couldn't make the majority of left turns without red-wheel give ups. Right turns were incredibly jerky. Roundabouts - forget even trying. Today, the vast majority of my turns are smooth with an occasional slight jerk on a turn. The acceleration and deceleration profiles have improved as well. The car used to crawl up to speed and slam on the brakes to come to a stop. Now the car accelerates quickly to speed, and the stopping is significantly smoother.

So, I just don't buy the "every release is full of regressions" and "1 step forward, 2 steps back". If that was the case, my car would still crap-out on left turn, barely make right turns, and creep forward and slam on the brakes.

I am not saying it's perfect - not at all. I'm just saying that it's markedly improved from 3 years ago.

 

[PR0FESSOR]

Here is the WJS Link for Musk’s drug use:

Elon Musk Has Used Illegal Drugs, Worrying Leaders at Tesla and SpaceX

Elon Musk Has Used Illegal Drugs, Worrying Leaders at Tesla and SpaceX

Some executives and board members fear the billionaire’s use of drugs—including LSD, cocaine, ecstasy, mushrooms and ketamine—could harm his companies.

www.wsj.com

Nice summary, Joe. Link to article, please.

But remember, some here subscribe to the, “Never let the facts ruin a good story,” philosophy.

 

[PR0FESSOR]

Here is the WSJ link with the unflattering comparison of Musk and Trump

How Elon Musk Is Fully Embracing Donald Trump’s Billionaire Populism

In some ways, Elon Musk is gaining even more influence as he becomes more like Donald Trump.

www.wsj.com

 

[PR0FESSOR]

Here is Musk responding to the WSJ article about his drug use. Here, he indicates “I have never tested positive for drugs”. What he doesn’t say is that the reason he has not tested positive is because he has not tested. Ugh.

Elon Musk Criticizes WSJ Reporting on His Use of Illegal Drugs
Elon Musk Criticizes WSJ Reporting on His Use of Illegal Drugs

 

[kabin]

And why would Elon care about stock price? He never did before.

Never? Remember short shorts? Being upset with Bill Gates shorting TSLA stock?

Elon is a stock price pumper. He refuses to admit the truth about almost everything TSLA during earning's report conference calls. All those ridiculous projections of the little guy being able to make money from their FSD equipped Tesla and every person in the world needs 2 Optimus robots.

 

[PR0FESSOR]

I might argue, and I will, that the SEC grants Musk more deference than any CEO whose SEC violations I am familiar with.

Joe

Never? Remember short shorts? Being upset with Bill Gates shorting TSLA stock?

Elon is a stock price pumper. He refuses to admit the truth about almost everything TSLA during earning's report conference calls. All those ridiculous projections of the little guy being able to make money from their FSD equipped Tesla and every person in the world needs 2 Optimus robots.

 

[JHCCAZ]

Which Ford car model can drive itself without the owner/driver?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746099010845225106

Note to @sleepydoc @PACEMD and other medical pros here:

Inspired by Ford, I have filed my patent application for the coin-operated pacemaker.

(Focuses the mind on spending priorities, and any patient who won't pay up will be appropriately recorded as a Deadbeat on the final certificate...)

 

[jebinc]

Here is Musk responding to the WSJ article about his drug use. Here, he indicates “I have never tested positive for drugs”. What he doesn’t say is that the reason he has not tested positive is because he has not tested. Ugh.

Elon Musk Criticizes WSJ Reporting on His Use of Illegal Drugs
Elon Musk Criticizes WSJ Reporting on His Use of Illegal Drugs

EXACTLY the thought I had. A Charlatan doing charlatan things - deception.

 

[Tronguy]

This is new for me.. light rain, wet roads, driving on a limited access freeway and max AP speed is limited to speed limit (65mph). FSD is now not allowing me to increase max speed at all.

View attachment 1008655

Drove through Connecticut late last year on a non 11.4.9 release through a degraded hurricane and reported same here. Minor drizzle/rain: Nada, normal. Heavier rain: That message, and one is limited to 5 mph over the limit. More rain, and it drops to the speed limit. Even more rain, and it's 5 mph below the speed limit. Even more rain/mist kicked up by trucks, then one gets a message that, more or less, says, "I give up. YOU drive.". And that includes lanekeeping.

As the precipitation lightens up, the process runs in reverse.

It'll be interesting when the first snow storm passes through here.

 

[LowlyOilBurner]

“Billionaire does drugs”….yawn. Who cares. At least it was prolly good booger sugar.

 

[swedge]

EXACTLY the thought I had. A Charlatan doing charlatan things - deception.

Are you referring to Musk or Trump? Oh, right, that was a different story Prof linked: ;-)

Here is the WSJ link with the unflattering comparison of Musk and Trump

How Elon Musk Is Fully Embracing Donald Trump’s Billionaire Populism

In some ways, Elon Musk is gaining even more influence as he becomes more like Donald Trump.

www.wsj.com

 

[PR0FESSOR]

Note to @sleepydoc @PACEMD and other medical pros here:

Inspired by Ford, I have filed my patent application for the coin-operated pacemaker.

(Focuses the mind on spending priorities, and any patient who won't pay up will be appropriately recorded as a Deadbeat on the final certificate

Hmmmmm…. I wonder if a coin operated LAD flow restrictor wouldn’t be better. Implant the coin slot in their back, and then when somoene does an “Idiocracy” worthy action, you could just slip in a quarter while they are not looking.

“Hey… did you just put a quarter in my coin-operated LAD flow restrictor?”
“Me? No way I would “ever” do that!
“What was that sound…. I …heard… aCk “.

Oh my… I think you are on to something that might lead Americans to treat each other with more respect!

LOL.

Joe