FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[jeremymc7]

Unless you consider "V11 wide release not happening in January" a promise.

Hate to conjecture it but highway Beta must be really bad since they are struggling so much and have been for sooooooooo long with it.

Isn’t highway beta in the latest FSD beta. I actually got the red steering wheel of death and a strike as one of the five before you loose access while on the freeway. I was shocked as I thought they only applied for the beta street driving. Needless to say I was alone on the highway with clear visibility and no signs of any danger.

They say you get three warning sounds before you get the strike but they all happen in a second or less and while I had grabbed the stalk and disengaged it was impossible to avoid.

 

[TenKOhms]

Isn’t highway beta in the latest FSD beta. I actually got the red steering wheel of death and a strike as one of the five before you loose access while on the freeway. I was shocked as I thought they only applied for the beta street driving. Needless to say I was alone on the highway with clear visibility and no signs of any danger.

They say you get three warning sounds before you get the strike but they all happen in a second or less and while I had grabbed the stalk and disengaged it was impossible to avoid.

From my understanding, the Highway NoA/AP is not in the latest beta and the steering wheel nag/warnings/anti-cheat code is a separate portion of the code. If you think of them as modules, City FSD, Highway NoA/AP, and wheel nags are all separate modules so your latest version of sofwtare can have latest wheel nags but Highway NoA/AP remains unchanged.

 

[jeremymc7]

From my understanding, the Highway NoA/AP is not in the latest beta and the steering wheel nag/warnings/anti-cheat code is a separate portion of the code. If you think of them as modules, City FSD, Highway NoA/AP, and wheel nags are all separate modules so your latest version of sofwtare can have latest wheel nags but Highway NoA/AP remains unchanged.

All I know was previously I would get the red screen and it would say unavailable for r at if trip.

This last time it was followed by a second message about an added strike.

I never got strikes with red screens while FSD turn on.

Something must be different.

 

[Supcom]

Isn’t highway beta in the latest FSD beta. I actually got the red steering wheel of death and a strike as one of the five before you loose access while on the freeway. I was shocked as I thought they only applied for the beta street driving. Needless to say I was alone on the highway with clear visibility and no signs of any danger.

They say you get three warning sounds before you get the strike but they all happen in a second or less and while I had grabbed the stalk and disengaged it was impossible to avoid.

All forced disengagements from attention monitoring count as strikes, not just those while using FSDb.

 

[Twiglett]

Unless you consider "V11 wide release not happening in January" a promise.

Hate to conjecture it but highway Beta must be really bad since they are struggling so much and have been for sooooooooo long with it.

That is my take as well. For it to be this slow to get a public release and still be getting updates to the few folks running it, it must be really bad.
Maybe we are going to get AP Beta-beta to go with FSDbeta?

 

[EVNow]

Hate to conjecture it but highway Beta must be really bad since they are struggling so much and have been for sooooooooo long with it.

Unless the bar is same quality as current NOA.

 

[scottf200]

Unless the bar is same quality as current NOA.

I've had pretty reasonable luck with NoA actually. Was useful on a 6000-mile summer road trip. Not perfect but pretty handy and surprised me a couple times with wanting to do lane changes because an exit was coming up and I was engaged in a conversation with the passenger or listening closely to a podcast.

 

[tevman]

Hopefully it doesn't add phantom steering to the mix.

 

[kriskros91]

Do you guys think that we will see another price hike announced when V11 is released? Seems like an opportunity for Tesla to get the benefit of the price drop to push more FSD purchases. Could also be the first price hike for subscribers.

 

[jeremymc7]

Perhaps. But also he could drop it down. Tesla pricing is known to rollercoaster.

Honestly I think eventually pricing will have to go way down as more competition comes out.

 

[EVNow]

Honestly I think eventually pricing will have to go way down as more competition comes out.

That "eventually" is doing a lot of work there.

In the US there seems to be absolutely no competition in city driving at all. Not even anything announced (unless you consider GM's UltraCruise that is announced for the $200k hand built cars).

Anyway, I don't think FSD price will increase. Not even the subscription. 16k is already quite high .... may be when FSDb actuualy gets to be good enough to be similar to AP/NOA (1 in 100 miles of disengagement instead of 1 in 10 miles).

 

[Knightshade]

Perhaps. But also he could drop it down. Tesla pricing is known to rollercoaster.

Barring the couple-week-long "sale" in early 2019 Tesla admitted was a mistake, has FSD pricing ever declined?

Honestly I think eventually pricing will have to go way down as more competition comes out.

What competition? AFAIK there are no even L2 consumer products on the market besides Teslas that aren't heavily ODD/highway restricted.

 

[jeremymc7]

Barring the couple-week-long "sale" in early 2019 Tesla admitted was a mistake, has FSD pricing ever declined?

I was referring more to their up and down pricing on the car. The addition and removal of unlimited or limited free miles. The changing of what is included as factory included in terms of AP

What competition? AFAIK there are no even L2 consumer products on the market besides Teslas that aren't heavily ODD/highway restricted.

I was referring to eventual direct competition. Hence when I said when they come out.

 

[Joboo7777]

The introduction of a subscription model for FSD leads me to believe that Tesla feels they have(or will very soon) a more superior solution than anyone else. If not, people would just cancel whenever they wanted and this would significantly impact Tesla’s bottom line. If they were still far from providing what they promised(many years ago) I think they would have continued to provide up front 15k pricing without the subscription option.

 

[EVNow]

The introduction of a subscription model for FSD leads me to believe that Tesla feels they have(or will very soon) a more superior solution than anyone else. If not, people would just cancel whenever they wanted and this would significantly impact Tesla’s bottom line. If they were still far from providing what they promised(many years ago) I think they would have continued to provide up front 15k pricing without the subscription option.

I won't be surprised if Tesla completely drops FSDb and goes to only subscription. That is where eventually everyone is heading.

 

[Joboo7777]

I won't be surprised if Tesla completely drops FSDb and goes to only subscription. That is where eventually everyone is heading.

Completely agree, but subscription model only works when you have a product that is worth paying for on a monthly basis. It will also increase the value of a car for which the owner purchased FSD upfront. Of course this is all contingent on Tesla’s ability to deliver an FSD capability that is more functional, safe, and consistent than the current. Based on Tesla’s move to subscription I’m cautiously optimistic that we as consumers are on the brink of seeing this.

 

[EVNow]

Based on Tesla’s move to subscription I’m cautiously optimistic that we as consumers are on the brink of seeing this.

Not sure about that. If we assume a useful city ADAS that non-enthusiasts like will have disengagement rate of about 1 in 100 miles, that is still a 10x improvement.

Musk even made the critical error of talking up “robotaxi” as the next vehicle instead of gen 3 last year. So, looks like they actually worked on robotaxi instead of Gen 3 earlier, even though robotaxi is far away.

 

[Joboo7777]

Not sure about that. If we assume a useful city ADAS that non-enthusiasts like will have disengagement rate of about 1 in 100 miles, that is still a 10x improvement.

Musk even made the critical error of talking up “robotaxi” as the next vehicle instead of gen 3 last year. So, looks like they actually worked on robotaxi instead of Gen 3 earlier, even though robotaxi is far away.

It won’t be perfect, but will be useful. I’ll admit I’ve only owned a Tesla for 45 days so I don’t have a lot of FSD experience. But with the experience I do have I’ve found City driving to be a novelty for me. Especially living in an area with a lot of traffic and large 6 lane suburban roads. It’s just not usable. For me it doesn’t have to be robotaxi level autonomy. Just give me something that can actually make it easier for me to commute 10-15 miles. Then I’ll be happy.

 

[bayareaever]

I won't be surprised if Tesla completely drops FSDb and goes to only subscription. That is where eventually everyone is heading.

We’ll see. My prediction is the opposite, that the subscription will eventually go away. Alternatively it could be eliminated for a year or two (indefinitely would be the official messaging) to get more people to buy fsd. Or the monthly fee could just rise to the point of making the purchase make more sense.

Another scenario is they could give subscribers a short-term offer to buy fsd minus whatever cost they’ve already paid monthly over time. That wouldn’t piss off folks who’ve already bought too much, and would bring in a lot of free money short term.

None of these strategies make much sense until fsdb works a lot more reliably. That’s the big unknown right now. If/when it does, it’s going to be worth a lot of money to the company and its customers, one way or another.

 

[powertoold]

Unless the bar is same quality as current NOA.

I think the bar is, "we won't release v11.x to external customers until it's good enough to be released to all customers." This is an extremely high bar, but it's the logical bar, because fsd beta is essentially available to everyone now.