FSD Beta v11.x

jeremymc7 · Jan 22, 2023

At the very least 10.59.25.2 has expanded its rollout so we’re getting somewhere.

In Italy it was stuck around 500 installs; but as of Sunday they added another hundred to a total around 600. At least per TeslaFi.

I except it to continue to trickle up to around 1000 and then hit everyone afterwards.

We’ll see.

bayareaever · Jan 22, 2023

jeremymc7 said:
At the very least 10.59.25.2 has expanded its rollout so we’re getting somewhere.

In Italy it was stuck around 500 installs; but as of Sunday they added another hundred to a total around 600. At least per TeslaFi.

I except it to continue to trickle up to around 1000 and then hit everyone afterwards.

We’ll see.

I got it last week from 25.1. Minor improvements at best, hard braking continues to be the biggest problem. 25.2 might be necessary to get v.11 though.

JulienW · Jan 23, 2023

Wall Street does LOVE subscriptions. I kinda think we have reached to top price consumers are willing or even able to pay up front for a L3/L4 option (or any option). Actually Tesla has probably past it. The average person just can't afford to pay $15K or more for the system unless it was commercialized. I don't believe our current cars can get past L3 but if they ever do make L4 Tesla could offer a 2 tier subscription to add Robotaxis while keeping the personal subscription about the same.

Also it will come down once it is widely available and all other car manufactures start offering L3/L4 systems. Plus when ALL cars have at least full L3 then it will just be standard like Air Bags and Antilock Brakes are today.

Tesla went up WAY too high too quickly with the option price. While Musk continuously hyped FSD (or implied L4) for years he seems to have backed off that now. Now doubt we are at least 2 years away from any chance what so ever of L4 since L3 is not even close. And it will likely be closer to 5 years before we have a realistic/optimistic chance of L4 being released and past regulations in most states.

HELL it may be 2 years before we even get V11 and parking lots.

HELL it may be 2 years before new 3/Ys get parking "sensor" features restored.

boonedocks · Jan 23, 2023

bayareaever said:
We’ll see. My prediction is the opposite, that the subscription will eventually go away. Alternatively it could be eliminated for a year or two (indefinitely would be the official messaging) to get more people to buy fsd. Or the monthly fee could just rise to the point of making the purchase make more sense.

Another scenario is they could give subscribers a short-term offer to buy fsd minus whatever cost they’ve already paid monthly over time. That wouldn’t piss off folks who’ve already bought too much, and would bring in a lot of free money short term.

None of these strategies make much sense until fsdb works a lot more reliably. That’s the big unknown right now. If/when it does, it’s going to be worth a lot of money to the company and its customers, one way or another.

I doubt the Subscription will go away. The current purchase price is just not going to fly over the long haul.

Having a reoccurring monthly buy in will alleviate the current situation that Tesla has with people selling / cars being totaled etc. It also creates a continuous cash inflow at a price / value bar that will work much better financially for Tesla in the long run.

My prediction is if anything the buy in will go down in $$$ or go away completely.

EVNow · Jan 23, 2023

boonedocks said:
My prediction is if anything the buy in will go down in $$$ or go away completely.

I think they should just remove buy and go full subscription. May be when V11 comes out. That way there is no promise at all - you pay for what is available today.

Only thing is the ASP (and margin) will go down. They will have to explain that. (for the portion of FSD they recognize).

Knightshade · Jan 23, 2023

EVNow said:
I think they should just remove buy and go full subscription. May be when V11 comes out. That way there is no promise at all - you pay for what is available today.

Only thing is the ASP (and margin) will go down. They will have to explain that. (for the portion of FSD they recognize).

As low as the take rate is- and the fact they don't actually recognize almost half the revenue right now anyway because features remain undelivered, I wouldn't expect a material impact on either margin or ASP if they removed the buy option... (though it's possible they'll recognize more of it going forward, in NA at least, if they consider city streets to be in "wide release" now and thus all promised items for post 3/19 buyers are considered delivered)

EVNow · Jan 23, 2023

Knightshade said:
As low as the take rate is- and the fact they don't actually recognize almost half the revenue right now anyway because features remain undelivered, I wouldn't expect a material impact on either margin or ASP if they removed the buy option... (though it's possible they'll recognize more of it going forward, in NA at least, if they consider city streets to be in "wide release" now and thus all promised items for post 3/19 buyers are considered delivered)

If 10% buy it and they recognize 50% - its a $750 impact on ASP (and margin). SO 1% impact on margin and GM would go down by 100 basis points.

Ofcourse considering the huge price cuts, not a big deal. OTOH, they probably want to see whether more people buy FSD now that the cars are $15k cheaper.

bayareaever · Jan 23, 2023

EVNow said:
I think they should just remove buy and go full subscription. May be when V11 comes out. That way there is no promise at all - you pay for what is available today.

Only thing is the ASP (and margin) will go down. They will have to explain that. (for the portion of FSD they recognize).

Why eliminate the buy option when even a small number of buyers are opting for it? That’s basically free money. Not gonna happen imo.

EVNow · Jan 23, 2023

bayareaever said:
Why eliminate the buy option when even a small number of buyers are opting for it? That’s basically free money. Not gonna happen imo.

Tesla needed to pre-sell earlier because they were short on cash. No longer.

ps : $17B cash in hand, generating $3B a quarter.

Supcom · Jan 23, 2023

EVNow said:
If 10% buy it and they recognize 50% - its a $750 impact on ASP (and margin). SO 1% impact on margin and GM would go down by 100 basis points.

Ofcourse considering the huge price cuts, not a big deal. OTOH, they probably want to see whether more people buy FSD now that the cars are $15k cheaper.

So, from a financial aspect, if Tesla is not recognizing 50% of the FSD purchase price because FSDb is not delivered, then it makes sense that the subscription price is about 50% of what it will be when FSDb is delivered. Note that the subscription price has held steady, even as the purchase price has gone up several times. Most likely becasue they are not charging the FSDb portion yet.

Subscribers should not gripe about FSDb not being fully developed unless they look forward to a large subscription price increase!

JulienW · Jan 23, 2023

EVNow said:
Tesla needed to pre-sell earlier because they were short on cash. No longer.

ps : $17B cash in hand, generating $3B a quarter.

....and reoccurring revenue is a HUGE plus on the balance sheets yet to come. Sell it all now and all you have is this quarters balance sheet (other than unrealized income/who knows when or if they will ever take it all). Cars are on the road for well over a decade now and having monies show up quarter after quarter for years from cars already sold and has a net profit of >95%. That is an investor/Wall Street win.

bayareaever · Jan 23, 2023

Since everyone is speculating here:

The price cuts are temporary until fsd (hopefully) works better in a few months. At that time, once the $7500 tax credit is basically caput, all new orders include fsd with ~$15k added in to current prices. All MY include 7 seats to still get the $3750 credit and they can be up near $80k.

This way, they could adjust the fsd purchase price for existing owners however they want to get buy-in from a very large number of customers (maybe ~$10k) without pissing off past purchasers too much. This move would raise asp significantly and demonstrate how great fsd is, assuming it is by then.

Once the Cybertruck and sub compact are released with fsd included also, it would be game over for many competitors.

Much of this discussion has been about what they should do in the interim while fsd kind of sucks. If/when it ‘works’, there are many ways to monetize significantly.

kabin · Jan 23, 2023

kriskros91 said:
Do you guys think that we will see another price hike announced when V11 is released? Seems like an opportunity for Tesla to get the benefit of the price drop to push more FSD purchases. Could also be the first price hike for subscribers.

I doubt it given current design's shortcomings and the team's seeming inability to make significant and timely progress.

And current FSDb owners are likely on the hook for more money outlay if new h/w is required for FSD to work as expected. Of course that assumes Tesla chooses to design next gen h/w with plug-in backward compatibility.

heapmaster · Jan 23, 2023

kabin said:
I doubt it given current design's shortcomings and the team's seeming inability to make significant and timely progress.

And current FSDb owners are likely on the hook for more money outlay if new h/w is required for FSD to work as expected. Of course that assumes Tesla chooses to design next gen h/w with plug-in backward compatibility.

I hope they do make the next gen backwards compatible

boonedocks · Jan 23, 2023

Supcom said:
So, from a financial aspect, if Tesla is not recognizing 50% of the FSD purchase price because FSDb is not delivered, then it makes sense that the subscription price is about 50% of what it will be when FSDb is delivered. Note that the subscription price has held steady, even as the purchase price has gone up several times. Most likely becasue they are not charging the FSDb portion yet.

Subscribers should not gripe about FSDb not being fully developed unless they look forward to a large subscription price increase!

I doubt that….but if it does double I’m out!!

bayareaever · Jan 23, 2023

Subscription will definitely be rising significantly at some point, probably concurrent with V.11, which Elon has already reiterated I believe. This will incentivize more owners to purchase outright.

Obviously, the SW has to become more functional first, which has always been the bottom line. In its current form, it’s hard to use in many typical driving situations.

EVNow · Jan 23, 2023

bayareaever said:
The price cuts are temporary until fsd (hopefully) works better in a few months.

How much better ? Lets say the current disengagement rate is 1 in 10 miles.

FSD Community Tracker

www.teslafsdtracker.com

BTW, there is an interesting chart in that. % of trips with no disengagements by # of miles driven. For trips < 20 miles, 50% are with no disengagements !

bayareaever · Jan 23, 2023

EVNow said:
How much better ? Lets say the current disengagement rate is 1 in 10 miles.

FSD Community Tracker

www.teslafsdtracker.com

View attachment 899049

BTW, there is an interesting chart in that. % of trips with no disengagements by # of miles driven. For trips < 20 miles, 50% are with no disengagements !

Good question and obviously subjective. The main problems I still see regularly are hard braking, blowing through faded stop signs and yield signs, occasional lane selection problems, and slow ‘go’ decisions at uncontrolled turns. It’s obviously a continuous improvement cycle that will continue for a long time.

Because we’re here in this thread, we all hope v11 will address all these and more. I’m skeptical but hopeful that this long delay before release is because they want to get it polished first. Going from v10 to v11 should not be like just another point release, which have had notable but only incremental improvements along with some regressions.

Btw, my intervention frequency is way way more than every 10 miles, probably closer to every .5 miles. I have a short commute in an urban setting, so not surprising but also frustrating!

EVNow · Jan 23, 2023

bayareaever said:
Because we’re here in this thread, we all hope v11 will address all these and more. I’m skeptical but hopeful that this long delay before release is because they want to get it polished first. Going from v10 to v11 should not be like just another point release, which have had notable but only incremental improvements along with some regressions.

Most of the important changes slated for V11 have already been made. The biggest change in V11 is single stack - which shouldn't affect city driving at all. So, I'd keep my expectations low - yes, I'm betting on "like just another point release, which have had notable but only incremental improvements along with some regressions".

powertoold · Jan 23, 2023

EVNow said:
Most of the important changes slated for V11 have already been made. The biggest change in V11 is single stack - which shouldn't affect city driving at all. So, I'd keep my expectations low - yes, I'm betting on "like just another point release, which have had notable but only incremental improvements along with some regressions".

I think they've had to go back to the drawing board multiple times since Elon said that though.

In the latest tweets / communications?, Elon talks about V11 having many architectural changes.

Here it is:

FSD Beta v11.x

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