FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[aerodyne]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633123935855206400

That red line must’ve gotten replaced by the light blue version. I wonder what the chevrons mean - car is slowing down?

I wonder what FSD suspension means in the release notes. Exactly what it says perhaps, ie, no FSD beta for HW 4.0 cars on this update?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I wonder what FSD suspension means in the release notes. Exactly what it says perhaps, ie, no FSD beta for HW 4.0 cars on this update?

No, it is regarding FSD Suspension (of privileges). Exactly what it says. Probably no change but who knows, maybe a few words have changed.

 

[boonedocks]

This is the version I'm most curious about. Let's see how annoying the fixes are

If they are super annoying, for example if they nerf the speed setting to max of 5mph over the "expected" speed limit, I will definitely cancel my subscription.

My only reason for keeping the FSD Beta subscription at this point is to be able to set my FSD speed to that of traffic speed and not what the car thinks it should be. My commute has me on a 45mph road that the navigation thinks is 35mph and if it locks me at 40 vs 50-55 that traffic is going then I am out. LOL

 

[aerodyne]

No, it is regarding FSD Suspension (of privileges). Exactly what it says. Probably no change but who knows, maybe a few words have changed.

I guess it depends on how you define suspension.

If I was expecting one of these HW 4.0 cars, I would not count on FSD working.

It seems incomprehensible to me if HW 4 functionality was imminent, that it would not be announced at Investor day.

I'm expecting a repeat of the plaid rollout, delay 3-5 months.

 

[D Good]

Yeah if they nerf it to 5 over they can say bye to my money.

 

[D Good]

I guess it depends on how you define suspension.

If I was expecting one of these HW 4.0 cars, I would not count on FSD working.

It seems incomprehensible to me if HW 4 functionality was imminent, that it would not be announced at Investor day.

I'm expecting a repeat of the plaid rollout, delay 3-5 months.

If you have FSD beta, you already have the note that talks about being suspended. It has been in every release. You can go to your car now and look at it.

 

[Mardak]

I guess it depends on how you define suspension

This is how FSD Beta has used "suspension:"

Not all vehicles get the same software. At least right now, 11.3(.0)/.1 have been based on 2022.45, so that generally means newer software like 2023.2.200/.201 that these HW4 vehicles are getting would be excluded. I suspect 11.3.2 will be bumped up to 2023.x in preparation for wide release similar to what we saw previously for some 10.x releases, but even then it's not clear if HW4 vehicles will get it right away with the rest of HW3 fleet.

 

[mtbwalt]

If I had to guess I suspect they will nerf it to speed limit+5 but allow the user to scroll it up manually. They have to understand that the car occasionally gets the speed limit wrong. Going 50 mph in a 70 zone because the car is confused about the speed limit is unsafe and a manual override by the driver is a required element.

That said, I can see little legal justification for people setting their car to speed limit + 20 mph as a default.

 

[kabin]

AI DRIVR has a good video about the plight of V11.

Yep. It's been almost insurmountable fixing one issue triggered by so many different scenarios. But then imagine trying to fix several issues. And then add the V11 transformation to the mix. Too many software changes in one release equals a can of worms.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

If I was expecting one of these HW 4.0 cars, I would not count on FSD working.

No idea on that, and was not commenting on that.

Just explaining the release note (which can be checked in your own car if you have FSD, as was mentioned).

 

[Mardak]

I saw that the person reporting that HW4 doesn't have AP, also has a problem with the backup camera. Which could be what is preventing AP from working.

Looks like the backup camera issue and lack of even basic Autopilot on the Model X were likely related. Fixed with 2023.2.201.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633154097217155072

HW4 could be running in some "compatibility" type mode to get Autopilot working with the new cameras/computer, so maybe FSD Beta 11.x will be able to do the same? Although maybe the delay in delivering these vehicles was the time needed to retrain basic Autopilot, and if so, there will probably need to be even more training for FSD Beta networks.

 

[aerodyne]

No idea on that, and was not commenting on that.

Just explaining the release note (which can be checked in your own car if you have FSD, as was mentioned).

You are correct on the notes.

 

[vamike]

AI DRIVR has a good video about the plight of V11.

This is a good summary (most of which this forum already knew) but I disagree with this statement at 6:59:

"Tesla is under tremendous pressure to deliver something great, and the more delayed its gets, the higher the expectations are. I don't think there is anyway to deliver what the public is expecting v11 to be at this point...".​

AI Drivrs comments may resonate for many in his targeted audience, but that hardly represents the "public". Putting aside the 99.9% of the "public" that have no idea what FSDb is (let alone have expectations), I suspect a majority of the ~362k FSDb subs don't follow TMC, Reddit, etc. and will simply will wake up one day with a suprise v11 software update alert. These subs are oblivious to the message board drama, recent recall, v11 promises, etc., and certainly aren't "pressuring Tesla to deliver something great". Further, among the FSDb subs that are on TMC, Reddit, etc. are the silent majority who have rational and tempered expectations and already expect the first v11 public release will be 2 steps forward and 2 steps back.

 

[kabin]

This is a good summary (most of which this forum already knew) but I disagree with this statement at 6:59:

"Tesla is under tremendous pressure to deliver something great, and the more delayed its gets, the higher the expectations are. I don't think there is anyway to deliver what the public is expecting v11 to be at this point...".​

AI Drivrs comments may resonate for many in his targeted audience, but that hardly represents the "public". Putting aside the 99.9% of the "public" that have no idea what FSDb is (let alone have expectations), I suspect a majority of the ~362k FSDb subs don't follow TMC, Reddit, etc. and will simply will wake up one day with a suprise v11 software update alert. These subs are oblivious to the message board drama, recent recall, v11 promises, etc., and certainly aren't "pressuring Tesla to deliver something great". Further, among the FSDb subs that are on TMC, Reddit, etc. are the silent majority who have rational and tempered expectations and already expect the first v11 public release will be 2 steps forward and 2 steps back.

I think its internal pressure - company and team. Given all the layoffs, including Waymo, it wouldn't be surprising if poor performer jobs were on the line. And given CT HW4 production is coming they need to start showing significant progress or few will be willing to opt for it.

 

[EVNow]

I think its internal pressure - company and team. Given all the layoffs, including Waymo, it wouldn't be surprising if poor performer jobs were on the line. And given CT HW4 production is coming they need to start showing significant progress or few will be willing to opt for it.

I doubt poor performers are around still. They would have been fired several releases ago.

 

[fcastrillo86]

Isn't this the guy who got fired because he was showing unreleased version videos on YouTube - and hit a pole?

You're thinking of AI Addict. Easy to confuse though since both are in the Bay Area and similarly named.

 

[EVNow]

You're thinking of AI Addict. Easy to confuse though since both are in the Bay Area and similarly named.

Ah ... I deleted my post.

 

[powertoold]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633330120965464064

Already looks like you can do at least 10mph above the speed limit

 

[thewishmaster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633330120965464064

Already looks like you can do at least 10mph above the speed limit

Was the max speed behavior supposed to change with the recall or something?

Those messages look pretty helpful. Now make them audio messages so we don't need to keep glancing at the screen

 

[Mardak]

Those messages look pretty helpful

It'll be interesting to see if these 11.3.1 "Stopping for traffic light" and "Stopping for stop sign" messages show up immediately even if very briefly as it might help reveal some types of unnecessary braking, e.g., mispredicted intersection, but other cases of slowing down, e.g., for false positive pedestrian, probably won't show the message.

Was the max speed behavior supposed to change with the recall or something?

My expectation of the max speed portion of the recall is that it'll be more urgent in honoring the set speed but the max can still be set to whatever you want.