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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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I don’t doubt any of the reports. It’s interesting because I drive the exact same roads I did in my Golf in my Tesla. One Golf = 0 phantom braking events. Three Teslas = 3x phantom braking vehicles. I’m also curious as to how vision only has solved the problems Elon says it does. What problems were solved?
Can’t say you know me but I admittedly had many issues with phantom braking, Until they disabled that useless radar in the front. Pretty much no issue any longer.
 
On that post I included a second pic showing the car with an intent to run and no car in front. On this and the last version, there has been a 100% incidence of intent to run (no one in front).

Because of the correct placement of the stop sign in the visualization (not located on the far side of the intersecting road), it should be interpreted as a stop sign for the road I'm traveling on. In earlier fsdb versions it would occasionally stop.

This is what the car saw before it got to the road it intended to run:

View attachment 945665
Guessing (not suggesting) if someone took a pipe wrench and slightly rotated that sign a few degrees towards your street I would bet the issue would stop. With the hill, turn, and berm it does look somewhat for a different road at first glance.
 
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That someone posted a BS FUD story? Not surprising at all.



NC 561 is a one-lane-each-way undivided, not-controlled access, road.

Exactly the type of road the manual specifically states Autopilot is not intended for.

Hilariously, later apparently without realizing it, the story even admits that- "Autopilot, largely a highway system, operates in a less complex environment than the range of situations experienced by a typical road user."

So...user error.

In fact, so far every time NHTSA investigated an autopilot crash they concluded...user error- no fault in the system.

Oh, in fact, it's even worse than that! Later in the story they ALSO admit the driver had "fixed weights to the steering wheel to trick Autopilot into registering the presence of a driver’s hands"

So 1000% driver error-Not only was he using a system somewhere it's not intended for use, he actively defeated one of it safety systems.... yet they want to blame the tech. Stupid.
I did a search on the heavily quoted Dorothy Lynch and it turns out she is some kind of dessert topping… 😉

 
I don’t doubt any of the reports. It’s interesting because I drive the exact same roads I did in my Golf in my Tesla. One Golf = 0 phantom braking events. Three Teslas = 3x phantom braking vehicles. I’m also curious as to how vision only has solved the problems Elon says it does. What problems were solved?


Most obvious would be the cases where radar on a rise/decline would phantom brake for an overpass it got a radar return from without realizing it was an elevation difference and not in the driving path of the car.

People used to complain CONSTANTLY on here about PB for overpasses and haven't seen much of that in a while.... (though since we're doing anecdotes THAT was a PB trigger I never had personally)
 
Yelobird, highway department spent some time improving this intersection, which included clearing overhung vegetation. Old sign was short, partly fallen over. This is a super sign. I believe the slight angle was to give better view to approaching traffic.

pic_sign-better.jpg


No matter what, I will keep reporting this until they fix it or fsd no longer accepts reports. I once saw a car run the old stop sign (turning left) and narrowly miss getting rear ended by an irate driver.

Highway dept employees have told me there are many many bad intersections in the VA area they cover.
 
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BTW can you guys point to the official legal definitions of alpha and beta you're using to speak with such certainty about what's what in this regard?

Or are you each just using whatever random definition fits your point of view?

Here's a wiki:

The alpha phase of the release life cycle is the first phase of software testing. In this phase, developers generally test the software using white-box techniques. Additional validation is then performed using black-box or gray-box techniques, by another testing team. Moving to black-box testing inside the organization is known as alpha release.

Alpha software is not thoroughly tested by the developer before it is released to customers. Alpha software may contain serious errors, and any resulting instability could cause crashes or data loss. Alpha software may not contain all of the features that are planned for the final version. The alpha phase usually ends with a feature freeze, indicating that no more features will be added to the software. At this time, the software is said to be feature complete.

Beta is the software development phase following alpha. Software in the beta stage is also known as beta ware.[7] A beta phase generally begins when the software is feature complete but likely to contain several known or unknown bugs.[8] Software in the beta phase will generally have many more bugs in it than completed software and speed or performance issues, and may still cause crashes or data loss. The focus of beta testing is reducing impacts on users, often incorporating usability testing. The process of delivering a beta version to the users is called beta release and is typically the first time that the software is available outside of the organization that developed it. Software beta releases can be either open or closed, depending on whether they are openly available or only available to a limited audience. Beta version software is often useful for demonstrations and previews within an organization and to prospective customers. Some developers refer to this stage as a preview, preview release, prototype, technical preview or technology preview (TP),[9] or early access.
 
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Just happens to be that Tesla’s is exceptionally low. FSD is certainly not in beta. It’s alpha, and then some.
Do you have quantitative data to support that claim? Tesla defect rate vs a comparable other project?

And so what? Would you be happy if Tesla had the EXACT same product and dev cycle and had labeled It "alpha"?
 
On one hand, you state beta is more of an alpha or pre-– alpha software, because of all the defects and then in the next sentence, you complain that Tesla use is beta for software that’s stable and usable. So which is it? Have you ever been in one of the beta programs for iOS? System crashes and data loss are not at all unheard of. Every single person who signs up for FSD beta knows that it’s beta, has been told that it’s beta, and even clicks, except after reading a statement from Tesla saying it can do the worst thing at the worst possible time. If you are using the software, you know this, too, yet you continually complain about the fact that the software is not perfect and call it junk because it’s not perfect. At this point the only conclusion I can make is that you are either illiterate, or simply a troll.
Yes, iOS beta tester. Yes, it crashes, but NO, it’s not in “beta”perpetually, like this Tesla junk. Not talking about FSDj here, but rather all of the other features still tagged beta after a decade. Gimme a break…. 😂
 
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How about, I don’t know a single person with a Tesla who has not had phantom braking on the highway, and I don’t know a single person driving a VW who’s had the car emergency brake on the highway?

Still anecdotal? Sure. Still true? Absolutely.
No, not really. Anecdotal "evidence" is not evidence at all. At best, it's an indication that a truly unbiased investigation might be warranted.
 
Do you have quantitative data to support that claim? Tesla defect rate vs a comparable other project?

And so what? Would you be happy if Tesla had the EXACT same product and dev cycle and had labeled It "alpha"?
Alpha can be understood to be a product of any variety of perfection but still awaits the addition of more features. Alpha usually is not feature complete. It does not indicate or reflect the functionality of the existing development IMO.

So IMO you can have well functioning Alpha code that awaits a few new features such as support for reverse mode. I would not get too picky about these development process conventions given FSD is such an ambitious and bold project. It is just in active development as I see it. YMMV
 
...I would not get too picky about these development process conventions given FSD is such an ambitious and bold project. It is just in active development as I see it. YMMV
Agreed, and I would add that the very nature of this Machine Learning approach depends on the widespread fleet testing and massive data gathering of successes and failures

it's not an option for Tesla to do the same development internally for X months longer to "hone" the software with internal testing.
In this context, any prior definition of Alpha and Beta, and best software practices prior to release, have to be revisited.

In every area of engineering, good design is based on established models, but then increasingly sophisticated simulation is used in an attempt to cover the widest possible set of use cases. At this time and for the foreseeable future, Machine Learning for real-world deployment still requires real-world deployment, because no one has yet simulated or recorded the real world to a satisfactory extent.

So in today's world, the question isn't whether Tesla could wait longer to work out the bugs before unleashing each latest release. Working out the bugs requires unleashing it; that's how the software is trained. The alternative is to massively scale back the goals, for example geofencing to one section of one city, or highly restricted toad types as we've seen with some other efforts.

I for one am glad that Tesla has chosen the FSD beta program approach. Of course this puts us right into the soup and there's no hiding the flaws. And yes, I effectively paid to be a tester - but in this case I don't mind. (Other than, I'd like not to have to start all over and pay again for the autonomous product.)

Arguing over the definition of Beta is fun, but I think this is a much broader paradigm shift in product and system development.
 
um .. since when is a Wiki article a "legal definition" ? The point the poster made was there IS NO LEGAL DEFINITION. And he is right. So really you are quibbling about a word, not the design and development process undertaken by Tesla.
um .. not surprising, I didn't get the same impression as you. And no, I didn't have a dog in that argument as you suggest. :)
 
In that case, can we please close this thread? We're all just providing anecdotal evidence, after all. FSD is perfect, - we're just all wrong.
This thread has become a joke. Maybe try one of the other FSD threads, such as this one. Clearly this crowd wants you, me and others gone from this one.

 
um .. not surprising, I didn't get the same impression as you

Unfortunate, since their impression was exactly right.

A wiki definition with a lot of "generally" and "usually" in it isn't any sort of legal definition.

Especially when I can as easily post a different Wiki one that directly contradicts it


An early version of a program or application that contains most of the major features, but is not yet complete.


versus yours:
A beta phase generally begins when the software is feature complete but likely to contain several known or unknown bugs
 
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