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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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So... unpopular opinion which I may end up regretting by next year... I think FSD beta is probably as good as it's going to get for a while. Here's my fantasy proposal:

Leave current FSD Beta as is.

Force minimal lane changes setting on, reduce wheel nags on the interstate or highway, and disable turning on "citystreets." Push this version public.

Release a tweet like 'Roflmao, FSD v12 sure is harder than anyone could have expected, lul, Guess it'll take a bit longer to complete laughing_face sweaty_face blushy_face heart_emoji cucumber sweat_drops."

Halt work on FSD v12. Focus on fixing autowipers, autobrights (is this still bad?), autoparking. Remove smart summon. After these are fixed, quietly add USS back to future cars along with a front bumper camera. Never talk about vision based parking assist again.

If and only if all the above is complete, resume working on v12 but don't say anything public about it. Go back to pushing updates to the FSD beta crowd, abuse them like the nerds we are.

Lastly, treat robotaxis like the roadster refresh's criminal cousin. Never talk about it again.
 
Finally got the 2023.44.30.2, installing now, coming from 2023.27.7 (FSDb 11.4.7.3). I'm happy to just get single pull to start FSD.
After complaints that the 2023.27.xx branch hadn’t been updated for some users in quite some time, it looks, based upon your (and probably others) that The One FSD-B to Rule Them All is going to be 11.4.9.

That is, the whole population of people with Teslas are going onto a single FSD load.

The days when there was both development and “mainline” branches seems to be over.

There’s sure to be more FSD updates going forward (V12, obviously), but it appears that it’s no longer going to be a dinky but intrepid testing group doing the heavy lifting. Kind of a milestone, really.

Oh, yeah: software on the M3 out back is currently going from 2023.44.1 to 2023.44.30.2. Guess I’ll give it a shot tomorrow and see if it does a better job hugging the center line on a UPL.
 
Finally got the 2023.44.30.2, installing now, coming from 2023.27.7 (FSDb 11.4.7.3). I'm happy to just get single pull to start FSD.
Bingo! on TeslaFi, 2023.44.30.2 now has nearly 6,000 installs pending, and it is going out to 2023.27.x, including mine. Last night the total for .2 of installed plus pending was around 3,000. Now it is 9,700.

The total of 2023.44.30 variants, installed plus pending, is over 15,000, out of the 20,000 total.

At this rate, Santa may be able to make the rounds in time.

It is not obvious why .2 and .4 are both going out, but S and X dominate in .4, while 3 and Y do in .2, but there is some crossover.
 

"First, the bad news. The new technology is initially available only to customers with Tesla models that do not have ultrasonic sensors."

How is this bad news? Who would want to replace something that already works just fine with something that may or may not work one day in the future?
 
jebinc:
It was interesting that Tesla continued until mid April to advertise all the parking functions as available when ordering a vehicle, when they were fully aware that from Oct 22 they were not, I along with a few other contacted Trading Standards, shortly after the specifications were changed and parking features were revised as coming soon. Yes I would agree that Tesla have powerful solicitors but worth spending £250 to £300 to get a legal opinion as it was suggested that it may be in breach of the sale of goods act in UK law, as in my case written assurance given that all features would be restored and available fully working in the New Year. I fortunately reply that following Tesla UK verbal and written assurances I will accept the vehicle and transfer payment, so there was a contract in law. Tesla UK on answering my complaint replied that the response given was only an estimate, hence I will wait wait until 2024 for a further legal opinion

The wipers blow my mind how they have gotten progressively worse/non-working. I feel they worked relatively well up until 11.4.x, whatever the early releases of V11 FSD were. Why can’t they just use that code for the wipers that worked? Or is this wiper rubbish part of the end to end AI v12 foreshadowing? If that’s the case, the future sucks.
Lowly, I would agree I nearly got nicked on the A15 motorway in Italy, 35 degrees wiper operating at full speed, run dry on screen wash, reverted to keeping a bottle of water and a damp leather in the boot and kept popping out to wipe a screen which was totally smeared by the wipers running on hot glass. In the end I had to turn off autopilot to be able to turn wipers off. That said I think that apart from a mad moment a few weeks ago the wipers have not been too bad.
 
jebinc:
It was interesting that Tesla continued until mid April to advertise all the parking functions as available when ordering a vehicle, when they were fully aware that from Oct 22 they were not, I along with a few other contacted Trading Standards, shortly after the specifications were changed and parking features were revised as coming soon. Yes I would agree that Tesla have powerful solicitors but worth spending £250 to £300 to get a legal opinion as it was suggested that it may be in breach of the sale of goods act in UK law, as in my case written assurance given that all features would be restored and available fully working in the New Year. I fortunately reply that following Tesla UK verbal and written assurances I will accept the vehicle and transfer payment, so there was a contract in law. Tesla UK on answering my complaint replied that the response given was only an estimate, hence I will wait wait until 2024 for a further legal opinion.
jebic, yes I agree 100% that its the culture that is the problem, we have three other EV in the family Fiat 500e, Polestar and KIA, Tesla has great advantages, charging, over the air updates and by far the best power and most efficient unit. But with the other models you get what its states on the tin, with Tesla as an example you are charged £3400 for EAP and do not get 70% of functions listed just "coming soon" which never does. Its sad but the EV market is catching up and even overtaken Tesla both in quality, service and electronics. The other point Tesla are very expensive to insure when comparing other EV's therefore with the governments drive for EV I can see problems for Tesla in Europe.
 
2023.44.30.2 downloaded. I did an initial early morning drive minus traffic. It feels more aggressive overall with throttle/brake as if a pizza delivery guy is driving. Jack rabbit starts and acceleration at the turn apex are now the norm. Maybe that's part of the improved latency plan?

No change to approaching red traffic lights. Not enough regen and too much stiff delayed braking.

One needless hard brake to a stop on a 35mph straight stretch of road with no indications why. I let it play out as there was no traffic.

FSD seems to rely heavily on navigation data as it couldn't safely negotiate a new roundabout. I tried four times, two in each direction with consistent results. Nav showed the road to be straight and 45mph. I needed to apply brakes each time from 45mph which consistently caused a slight brief drift on the damp roadway from overnight rain. Each time FSD illuminated the high beams well in advance and the roundabout warning signage was obvious. FSD couldn't adjust in time to the vision input.

FSD selected 40mph as the speed for my 25mph residential neighborhood. That's new.

Late entry into intersection turn lanes and medians remains the same. Ugh!

I went though one photo radar traffic light but nothing displayed on the UI. It's not a new photo radar site.
 
jebic, yes I agree 100% that its the culture that is the problem, we have three other EV in the family Fiat 500e, Polestar and KIA, Tesla has great advantages, charging, over the air updates and by far the best power and most efficient unit. But with the other models you get what its states on the tin, with Tesla as an example you are charged £3400 for EAP and do not get 70% of functions listed just "coming soon" which never does. Its sad but the EV market is catching up and even overtaken Tesla both in quality, service and electronics. The other point Tesla are very expensive to insure when comparing other EV's therefore with the governments drive for EV I can see problems for Tesla in Europe.
It's the Tesla customers that are the problem. They are buying, time after time, into the promises that don't materialise. As long as they do there's no incentive to deliver, just feed them another amazing single stack mumbo jumbo in two weeks and they will stay happy for while.