FSD discussion

[EVNow]

After thinking a bit - does "hands off" mean "L3 on highways"?

Hands off just means you don't need to hold the wheel. L3 is hands off, eyes off. But most importantly OEM would assume liability. You should still be able to take over within seconds if the car asks you - so not really "mind off".

 

[Thekiwi]

To add more evidence to this, in this Earnings call, there was a specific institutional investor question asking for current adoption rate of FSD. Basically, investors are looking for clues if there is any evidence of Musk’s prediction of Tesla making profits on FSD or if people are ready for FSD. Unfortunately, Musk was vague in his response and never gave a clear answer.

For people looking to predict, when the FSD rerating on TSLA will start - You have the answer. Investors will start pricing in FSD and its implications when we hear Zach or Musk talk about increased FSD adoption. Investors may not wait till there is FSD regulatory approval to re rate the stock.

Logically FSD gets so good that people actually start buying it or subscribing to FSD months before regulatory approval.

I know this is going to be savaged here, but I’m gonna say it: FSD that still needs to be supervised is close to worthless, a pure rich person nice-to-have on consumer vehicles.

Having to pay a massive one off fee, or a large monthly subscription, or x dollars per mile, to use FSD to get you to a destination that you were already going to drive to anyway is a needless massive expense in the eyes of many I think, when you have to still supervise your car.

It will, of course, become extremely valuable once it can be used unsupervised, either as a driverless robotaxi or as a personally owned vehicle where the driver has to provide zero attention to and can spend the time on something else instead.

In the meantime however, the cheaper Tesla’s ASP gets as it punches into ever lower market segments in terms of discretionary income, the lower the take rate of FSD will be. So I don’t think the current take rate of FSD is in any way helpful to disclose as it doesn’t provide any sort of relevant data to what the take rate for full FSD unsupervised will be when/if it gets approved. Unsupervised FSD vs supervised FSD are two entirely different value propositions.

 

[deshkart]

Having to pay a massive one off fee, or a large monthly subscription, or x dollars per mile, to use FSD to get you to a destination that you were already going to drive to anyway is a needless massive expense in the eyes of many I think, when you have to still supervise your car.

It will, of course, become extremely valuable once it can be used unsupervised, either as a driverless robotaxi or as a personally owned vehicle where the driver has to provide zero attention to and can spend the time on something else instead.

In the meantime however, the cheaper Tesla’s ASP gets as it punches into ever lower market segments in terms of discretionary income, the lower the take rate of FSD will be. So I don’t think the current take rate of FSD is in any way helpful to disclose as it doesn’t provide any sort of relevant data to what the take rate for full FSD unsupervised will be when/if it gets approved. Unsupervised FSD vs supervised FSD are two entirely different value propositions.

We both are saying the same thing.

Right now the state of FSD is exactly as you have mentioned in your first paragraph. Vast majority of people view it as an extra expense and not worth paying and that’s why there is no significant adoption among the buyers. As a result, investors are not putting a value on FSD.

Now, Elon has been ecstatic about FSD for a long time. So, investors want to see evidence of it before they put a price on it - Does general public share same opinion as Elon ? Does public think FSD is worth paying ? If they do see evidence of people ready to pay more for FSD, it will confirm Elon’s predictions that FSD is a great value add and that Tesla is in right direction.

I think more people will adopt FSD during the transition phase from “ Supervised FSD” that’s so good that it will get “ Regulatory approval to be an unsupervised FSD” in a few months for that geographic region. So that’s the evidence the institutional investors are looking for - before they re rate TSLA. We are not there yet.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I know this is going to be savaged here, but I’m gonna say it: FSD that still needs to be supervised is close to worthless, a pure rich person nice-to-have on consumer vehicles.

Having to pay a massive one off fee, or a large monthly subscription, or x dollars per mile, to use FSD to get you to a destination that you were already going to drive to anyway is a needless massive expense in the eyes of many I think, when you have to still supervise your car.

It will, of course, become extremely valuable once it can be used unsupervised, either as a driverless robotaxi or as a personally owned vehicle where the driver has to provide zero attention to and can spend the time on something else instead.

In the meantime however, the cheaper Tesla’s ASP gets as it punches into ever lower market segments in terms of discretionary income, the lower the take rate of FSD will be. So I don’t think the current take rate of FSD is in any way helpful to disclose as it doesn’t provide any sort of relevant data to what the take rate for full FSD unsupervised will be when/if it gets approved. Unsupervised FSD vs supervised FSD are two entirely different value propositions.

Exactly. And as cool as FSD is it is absolutely no where close to being autonomous. That is years away.

 

[Mengy]

Exactly. And as cool as FSD is it is absolutely no where close to being autonomous. That is years away.

I'd argue FSD is "near" autonomous, it's just the last few steps towards it are going to be extremely difficult steps. Not many steps left to take, but those last few are doozies.

 

[EVNow]

I'd argue FSD is "near" autonomous, it's just the last few steps towards it are going to be extremely difficult steps. Not many steps left to take, but those last few are doozies.

Not objectively. The disengagement rate still needs to improve 1000x.

 

[jabloomf1230]

If Cathie Wood thinks that Tesla robotaxis are imminent, does she have inside information or is she just blowing smoke? Maybe the version of FSDb that's in the public's hands has been purposefully limited in scope to disguise the actual extent of internal progress. Elon always says that his version of FSD is better.

 

[JRP3]

If Cathie Wood thinks that Tesla robotaxis are imminent, does she have inside information or is she just blowing smoke?

Smoke IMO.

 

[EVNow]

If Cathie Wood thinks that Tesla robotaxis are imminent, does she have inside information or is she just blowing smoke? Maybe the version of FSDb that's in the public's hands has been purposefully limited in scope to disguise the actual extent of internal progress. Elon always says that his version of FSD is better.

LOL.

Why do people keep falling for this ?

FSD is easily available for everyone in US / Canada (just subscribe for a month, if you haven't bought FSD). Some 400k drivers have now experienced FSD. Many tens of thousand use it on a daily basis. There is an active forum here that tracks FSD Beta in minutia. You don't need a Cathie Wood to say how far it is - nor watch YT videos to figure out. Anyone with even small number of hours behind the wheel with FSD knows how far it is from real robotaxi (or even L3) capability. Its not a secret. There is no secret hidden version that suddenly will get FSD to robotaxi level. Every release has only seen margin (at best) improvements. Every release has seen regressions.

There is no secret silver bullet that will make FSD better overnight. It is a long, hard slog.

 

[bigsmooth125]

Smoke IMO.

Not just blowing, also inhaling.

 

[InTheMiddle]

I know this is going to be savaged here, but I’m gonna say it: FSD that still needs to be supervised is close to worthless, a pure rich person nice-to-have on consumer vehicles.

Having to pay a massive one off fee, or a large monthly subscription, or x dollars per mile, to use FSD to get you to a destination that you were already going to drive to anyway is a needless massive expense in the eyes of many I think, when you have to still supervise your car.

It will, of course, become extremely valuable once it can be used unsupervised, either as a driverless robotaxi or as a personally owned vehicle where the driver has to provide zero attention to and can spend the time on something else instead.

In the meantime however, the cheaper Tesla’s ASP gets as it punches into ever lower market segments in terms of discretionary income, the lower the take rate of FSD will be. So I don’t think the current take rate of FSD is in any way helpful to disclose as it doesn’t provide any sort of relevant data to what the take rate for full FSD unsupervised will be when/if it gets approved. Unsupervised FSD vs supervised FSD are two entirely different value propositions.

As your post splits FSD into 'unsupervised FSD vs supervised FSD', it's likely the disagree / agree in replies will be split between the first two paragraphs on supervised (above) vs the last two paragraphs on unsupervised (below). Supervised FSD are not two points to be toggled from one to the other; they're not even just a line segment with infinite points in between the two ends...supervised FSD and unsupervised FSD are merely two points on a infinite line that extends both backwards before unsupervised FSD and forwards beyond unsupervised FSD. Even today's current supervised FSDb point on that line provides a great deal of value to myself and many others already, far beyond anything else commercially available to us.

The root issue that is being missed is that FSD is being presented as a binary toggle, it's either "unsupervised" or "supervised", as though you envision one day it has very little value and the next day when the switch is flipped it has great value. Consider that, as with most everything else in the universe, there are steps in between, and yes, those steps in between do provide value and are not 'worthless'. Over the past 119 years from the first Ford Model T to the most recent Model X to roll off the line today, people have paid for automation in increments. Between 100% manual and today's FSDb purchasers paid more for changing gears to be automated, then paid more for very crude cruise control that merely kept the gas / air flow rate mechanically open but speed varied based on inclination, then paid more for smarter cruise control that could maintain speed somewhat even when climbing hills, then paid more for traffic-aware cruise control to not hit the car in front of them, then paid more for steering lane assist, and some (myself included) even paid more for FSDb to be able to do things like lane changes and ding when the light turns green and so on. Even something as simple as starting the car wasn't a single-step...people paid more to replace the hand crank with an electric starter, paid more to replace pumping the gas pedal with automatic priming, paid more for push-button starting, and now Tesla cars do not even need to be 'started'. Those who do find value in each incremental step pay more, funding the development that allows for each next incremental step.

TLDR: When saying something is "close to worthless" until it reaches some arbitrary mark of completeness, at the least one should use the phrase "close to worthless to me" to indicate that they understand others may find significant value in all the steps in between. At the best, one should realize while they're saying it that they are setting themselves up to lose out on enjoying everything to be had along the way in between today and that arbitrary point in the future. Queue the music (Miley Cyrus - The Climb - Official Music Video (HQ), 2015).

 

[EVNow]

I'm not sure why the mods keep moving important FSD related posts from main thread to here. Since few people read this thread apparently a lot of people in the main thread don't have the faintest idea about reality of FSD.

 

[jerry33]

We'll know when FSD is close to finished when it can obey school zones. In the meantime, I believe FSD is worth every penny for long trips because it keeps you alert, and stops safely if you should doze off. If you only drive in the city--probably not worth it.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Smoke IMO.

Yep. Anyone that spends some time in an FSD car knows it is no where close to a robotaxi level. Check back next decade….maybe.

 

[InTheMiddle]

Yep. Anyone that spends some time in an FSD car knows it is no where close to a robotaxi level. Check back next decade….maybe.

As someone who spends a great deal of time in an FSD car, perhaps I concur that it is currently far away from robotaxi level.

However, as someone who spends a great deal of time in an FSD car, I definitely know that FSD is quite far ahead of any other consumer car offering…no one else is anywhere close to FSD from that perspective.

Perhaps FSD is as far from robotaxi as everyone else is from FSDb…

Question - for all your commentary on FSD, how much time do *you* spend in an FSD car each week? I average several hours / hundreds of miles per week, across a wide range of driving scenarios…do you speak from extensive first-hand experience? Or are you posting based only on minor (no?) experience and mostly just looking at what others say / post videos of?

 

[jerry33]

As someone who spends a great deal of time in an FSD car, perhaps I concur that it is currently far away from robotaxi level.

However, as someone who spends a great deal of time in an FSD car, I definitely know that FSD is quite far ahead of any other consumer car offering…no one else is anywhere close to FSD from that perspective.

Perhaps FSD is as far from robotaxi as everyone else is from FSDb…

Question - for all your commentary on FSD, how much time do *you* spend in an FSD car each week? I average several hours / hundreds of miles per week, across a wide range of driving scenarios…do you speak from extensive first-hand experience? Or are you posting based only on minor (no?) experience and mostly just looking at what others say / post videos of?

Most of my FSD experience is long distance, of which I have well over 30k miles. I have recently started using it regularly in the city. It’s much improved but still stops and starts way too aggressively in chill mode.

 

[fasteddie7]

Most of my FSD experience is long distance, of which I have well over 30k miles. I have recently started using it regularly in the city. It’s much improved but still stops and starts way too aggressively in chill mode.

I just took delivery of an hw4 car so I’m patient waiting the 2023 build, when you say chill mode, does that mean you can select a different fsd mode than your regular driving, such as when I’m driving it’ll be insane, when it’s driving it’ll be chill?

 

[jabloomf1230]

LOL.

Why do people keep falling for this ?

FSD is easily available for everyone in US / Canada (just subscribe for a month, if you haven't bought FSD). Some 400k drivers have now experienced FSD. Many tens of thousand use it on a daily basis. There is an active forum here that tracks FSD Beta in minutia. You don't need a Cathie Wood to say how far it is - nor watch YT videos to figure out. Anyone with even small number of hours behind the wheel with FSD knows how far it is from real robotaxi (or even L3) capability. Its not a secret. There is no secret hidden version that suddenly will get FSD to robotaxi level. Every release has only seen margin (at best) improvements. Every release has seen regressions.

There is no secret silver bullet that will make FSD better overnight. It is a long, hard slog.

For some reason, you've selectively accepted as fact that Tesla doesn't conceal anything from the public. Cathie Woods' cheerleading aside, it makes perfect sense to me that the FSD team maintains a version that is far more versatile than the public beta. We only get the crumbs that are months or more old.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

As someone who spends a great deal of time in an FSD car, perhaps I concur that it is currently far away from robotaxi level.

However, as someone who spends a great deal of time in an FSD car, I definitely know that FSD is quite far ahead of any other consumer car offering…no one else is anywhere close to FSD from that perspective.

Perhaps FSD is as far from robotaxi as everyone else is from FSDb…

Question - for all your commentary on FSD, how much time do *you* spend in an FSD car each week? I average several hours / hundreds of miles per week, across a wide range of driving scenarios…do you speak from extensive first-hand experience? Or are you posting based only on minor (no?) experience and mostly just looking at what others say / post videos of?

As someone who spends a great deal of time in an FSD car, perhaps I concur that it is currently far away from robotaxi level.

However, as someone who spends a great deal of time in an FSD car, I definitely know that FSD is quite far ahead of any other consumer car offering…no one else is anywhere close to FSD from that perspective.

Perhaps FSD is as far from robotaxi as everyone else is from FSDb…

Question - for all your commentary on FSD, how much time do *you* spend in an FSD car each week? I average several hours / hundreds of miles per week, across a wide range of driving scenarios…do you speak from extensive first-hand experience? Or are you posting based only on minor (no?) experience and mostly just looking at what others say / post videos of?

Much less than you. Probably on average 200 to 300 kilometres per week. Mix of highway city. It behaves well on highways. Not so well in the city. We use it as much as we can and intervene and report as often as needed. It’s a long way from any kind of level 4 or robotaxi. But is an effective driver assist system. We enjoy using it but stay realistic about its progress and performance.

Cheers.

 

[jerry33]

I just took delivery of an hw4 car so I’m patient waiting the 2023 build, when you say chill mode, does that mean you can select a different fsd mode than your regular driving, such as when I’m driving it’ll be insane, when it’s driving it’ll be chill?

The mode you select for regular driving is carried over to FSD.