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FSD Timeline Promises (summary)

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,124
21,639
NC
Ford apparently can't even confidently handle gentle curves on a divided highway at L2 at this point.

You're starting to sound like the TSLAQ folks who've told us THE COMPETITION IS COMING for EVs generally for almost 10 years now and been wrong over and over and over again about it.
 

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
7,052
10,480
San Diego
Big "IF." And what if they come to market with 3 X safer than human six months after some other company comes out with 5 X safer than human? It's like Pascal's Wager. Pascal assumes that either Christianity is right or there's no God at all. You are assuming that if Tesla comes out with 3 X FSD there will be no competition that's even safer than that.

In fact, it's a race among many players, and the competition doesn't stop with the first autonomous car. Maybe in ten years from now on HW17.3 (or next year on HW3 if you're that optimistic) Tesla comes out with 3 X FSD and a month later Hyundai comes out with 5 X FSD. Tesla better have 10 X in the pipeline or it will be relegated to history. Or maybe Ford comes out with 5 X while Tesla is still working on 3 X. If Tesla had all its eggs in the 3 X basket they might as well close up shop.

3 X is barely adequate for public acceptance and the race doesn't stop there. Any auto maker that hopes to stay in the game will need at least 10 X better than human safety.

P.S. And a lot of people would buy an autonomous car that's ten times safer than human who would not buy a car that's three times safer. 10X opens up a huge market that's not there for 3X.
I'm skeptical that 10x is even possible. In 50% of collisions the other driver is at fault. The car would have to avoid at least 5 times as many as an average human. There are a certain percentage of collisions that are unavoidable for even the best defensive driver.
 

daktari

Member
Jan 21, 2017
932
1,100
Norway
You're starting to sound like the TSLAQ folks who've told us THE COMPETITION IS COMING for EVs generally for almost 10 years now and been wrong over and over and over again about it.
Here in Europe we have so many great EVs now, and even more coming, so the competition is here. The Audi E-tron has in only 2,5 years on the market sold almost the same number as Model S since 2013. Tesla also sells a lot of 3s, and we just got the Model Y.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,124
21,639
NC
Here in Europe we have so many great EVs now, and even more coming, so the competition is here. The Audi E-tron has in only 2,5 years on the market sold almost the same number as Model S since 2013. Tesla also sells a lot of 3s, and we just got the Model Y.


I'm not sure comparing the ~50k etron to the ~100k for most of its life S, makes a ton of sense. Even moreso if you limit it to one market only- and one where large sedans aren't a hugely popular segment.

In 2020 audi sold almost 50,000 etrons worldwide.

Tesla sold almost 500,000 EVs worldwide- and mostly 3s.

VW is probably the least-terrible legacy company in terms of making actual efforts to compete.... but keep in mind they are the folks who in 2013 said they'd be #1 in EV sales by 2018.

Ford recently said they were going to double their planned production of the EV F-150... all the way up to... *checks notes* 15,000 trucks for all of 2022!

That's... less than 2% of total F-150 sales BTW.

The competition isn't really coming. They don't have the batteries to do so, and won't for years.

That's apart from the fact the actual cars are years behind in a slew of engineering ways. (Go check out Sandy Munros teardowns of both Ford and VW evs to see how much legacy garbage they're wasting $ on with bad engineering for an EV versus tesla)
 

rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
3,088
2,556
Orange County, CA
Here in Europe we have so many great EVs now, and even more coming, so the competition is here. The Audi E-tron has in only 2,5 years on the market sold almost the same number as Model S since 2013. Tesla also sells a lot of 3s, and we just got the Model Y.
Remember that the charging infrastructure in EU is far different than the distribution of DCFC in the US.

Standardized plugs in EU. Three "standards" here (Tesla, CHAdeMO, CCS), with CHAdeMO vehicles likely to become road trip orphans in the next couple of years. Multiple companies running the DCFC networks in the US makes for confusion and inconvenience.

Not to mention, dicey reliability.
 

daniel

Well-Known Member
May 7, 2009
5,088
4,212
Kihei, HI
Ford apparently can't even confidently handle gentle curves on a divided highway at L2 at this point.

You're starting to sound like the TSLAQ folks who've told us THE COMPETITION IS COMING for EVs generally for almost 10 years now and been wrong over and over and over again about it.

Are you saying that you think Tesla is the only serious player in the FSD game? Several companies have limited-area robotaxis that don't need a driver. I'm not predicting that they'll beat Tesla. I'm saying it's not possible to make a reliable prediction. Waymo probably won't manufacture consumer cars, but if they solve wide-area FSD first, they'll lease the tech to a car company (or more than one) who will build the cars.

Predictions of the future are notoriously bad. That's all I'm saying about FSD. And I find the predictions about Tesla releasing Level 4 or 5 any time soon, well, amusing.

The Tesla Model 3 is the best car on the road today. But as the mutual fund prospectuses always say, "Past results are no guarantee of future performance."
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,124
21,639
NC
Are you saying that you think Tesla is the only serious player in the FSD game?

They're the only serious automotive OEM.

Most other OEMs just repackage mediocre L2 systems from Mobileye and the like.


Several companies have limited-area robotaxis that don't need a driver. I'm not predicting that they'll beat Tesla. I'm saying it's not possible to make a reliable prediction.

Yeah, but they're limited by design.

They're trying to solve for "robotaxis in this city we precision mapped, with a ton of EXPENSIVE hardware glued to the roof" and they scale for crap.

Tesla is trying to solve for "self drives generally anywhere while also looking like a normal, affordable, car"

I agree it's impossible to predict when either will be capable of a "real" product rollout but they're largely aiming for different things anyway.
 

RobDickinson

Active Member
Jun 23, 2019
1,507
4,314
New Zealand
Waymo currently isnt scalable at all. Its also not good enough to work without supervision in HD mapped areas.

And they dont have the scale of vehicles and data that tesla has access too.

Google/waymo certainly have the compute and a good number of people working on it and seem the best competition to fsd but I really dont think their approach is gong to work.
 
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daniel

Well-Known Member
May 7, 2009
5,088
4,212
Kihei, HI
They're the only serious automotive OEM.

Most other OEMs just repackage mediocre L2 systems from Mobileye and the like.

I think it's a mistake to assume that FSD technology has to come from an automobile company. It's possible that another company creates the technology and leases it to an automaker. IIRC Tesla leased or bought technology from AC Propulsion for the Roadster. AC Propulsion built the tzero not with an eye to selling cars (though they did sell 3 or 4 IIRC) but with an idea of selling or leasing the technology. Something like that could happen with autonomy. I'm not saying it will. I'm just saying we cannot say it can't. I think that auto makers buy tech from inventors all the time.

Yeah, but they're limited by design.

They're trying to solve for "robotaxis in this city we precision mapped, with a ton of EXPENSIVE hardware glued to the roof" and they scale for crap.

Tesla is trying to solve for "self drives generally anywhere while also looking like a normal, affordable, car"

I agree it's impossible to predict when either will be capable of a "real" product rollout but they're largely aiming for different things anyway.

Companies like Waymo are trying to solve FSD by building limited-area robotaxis. Tesla is trying to do it with consumer cars. One approach has produced Level 4 cars that are severely geofenced. The other has produced cars that can go pretty much anywhere but don't appear likely go get past Level 2 any time in the next few years. It's like apples and oranges competing to see who gets to be the first fruit plate.

Tesla is the only one selling something that doesn't actually exist yet, which I think is sleazy. "Buy it now because we'll charge you more for it later" is a classic disreputable high-pressure sales tactic. And every year that passes it looks more and more as though the earliest buyers may never get what they paid for.
 

linux-works

Active Member
Dec 23, 2019
2,188
4,169
mtn view, ca
again, I think this is like the particle collider projects. no one country can/should do that, and 'fsd' or level 5 is so big a project, its bigger than any one single company. it may really take government backing from multiple cooperating countries (yeah, I'm dreaming, lol) before real progress can be made in such a hard subject.

one approach is to have multiple teams work on the same problem, like they friendly-competing. as they get to a conclusion (good or bad) the results are shared and everyone benefits.

tesla, as much money as they have, can't pull something like that off, on their own. but in combination with industry-wide research talent, the world would have a fair chance at this.

am I the only one here who thinks this is bigger than any one (even super rich) company? and that we'll only see progress when its a shared effort, like the LHC in geneva?
 
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daniel

Well-Known Member
May 7, 2009
5,088
4,212
Kihei, HI
I think that real progress is being made. I just think that they're near the beginning, not near the end. A cooperative effort would certainly lead to faster results, but I don't think that's likely to happen. Whether it's possible without an international effort, I have no idea.
 

daktari

Member
Jan 21, 2017
932
1,100
Norway
I'm not sure comparing the ~50k etron to the ~100k for most of its life S, makes a ton of sense. Even moreso if you limit it to one market only- and one where large sedans aren't a hugely popular segment.

In 2020 audi sold almost 50,000 etrons worldwide.

Tesla sold almost 500,000 EVs worldwide- and mostly 3s.

VW is probably the least-terrible legacy company in terms of making actual efforts to compete.... but keep in mind they are the folks who in 2013 said they'd be #1 in EV sales by 2018.

Ford recently said they were going to double their planned production of the EV F-150... all the way up to... *checks notes* 15,000 trucks for all of 2022!

That's... less than 2% of total F-150 sales BTW.

The competition isn't really coming. They don't have the batteries to do so, and won't for years.

That's apart from the fact the actual cars are years behind in a slew of engineering ways. (Go check out Sandy Munros teardowns of both Ford and VW evs to see how much legacy garbage they're wasting $ on with bad engineering for an EV versus tesla)
Sorry, you are wrong. The e-tron starts at $72.000 and ends at $ 120k. Most sold with extras around $80.000. That is without any sales tax. That price is higher than most of the Model S that have been sold, those are S75 and SP85 according to Tesla Registration Stats
Back in 2013 and 14, when SP85 were sold, the cost of these were lower than the e-tron today.

It is certainly interesting to see the trends in this country, since there is in fact competition for Tesla her, unlike the US. There does not seem to be any battery shortage either - chip shortage is a problem though. Tesla sells well at around 15% market share for EVs, that is apprx 7,5% of the whole new car market.

Munros is talking about engineering optimalization, saving a few cents here and there. That doesn't matter when it comes to the utility and user satisfaction with the car.

Pick up trucks like F150 are a minority in Europe.
 

daktari

Member
Jan 21, 2017
932
1,100
Norway
Remember that the charging infrastructure in EU is far different than the distribution of DCFC in the US.

Standardized plugs in EU. Three "standards" here (Tesla, CHAdeMO, CCS), with CHAdeMO vehicles likely to become road trip orphans in the next couple of years. Multiple companies running the DCFC networks in the US makes for confusion and inconvenience.

Not to mention, dicey reliability.
We have CCS and ChaDeMo, but all new cars comes with CCS. We probably have a ton of more DC chargers than t he US. Most new cars have a charging service that will give access to many different charging networks. Tesla Superchargers are the best network though.
 
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Azlaneguy

Member
Feb 16, 2020
25
10
Scottsdale AZ
Here is a great summary of what Elon has communicated about the FSD timeline.


Full copy below for archival
  • September 2014
    They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person [at the wheel] in a six-year time frame
    Source
  • December 2015
    We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.
    Source
  • January 2016
    In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY
    Source
  • June 2016
    I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year
    Source
  • October 2016
    By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging.
    Source
  • January 2017
    At what point will Full Self-Driving Capability features noticeably depart from? - Elon: 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely
    Source
  • March 2017
    I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla] is about two years
    Source
  • May 2017
    Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this.
    Source
  • March 2018
    I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person.
    Source
  • November 2018
    Probably technically be able to [self deliver Teslas to customers doors] in about a year then its up to the regulators
    Source
  • January 2019
    We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that.
    Source
  • February 2019
    We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year
    Source
  • April 2019
    I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months.... I think this was all really going to be swept, I mean, the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot point very soon. No, in fact, I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe and towards the end this year, but I say, I'd be shocked if not next year, at the latest that having the person, having human intervene will decrease safety. DECREASE! (in response to human supervision and adding driver monitoring system)
    Source
  • April 2019
    We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year.
    Source
  • May 2019
    We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too
    Source
  • April 2020
    Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown
    Source
  • April 2020
    we could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some.
    Source
  • July 2020
    I am extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think—I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year, There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.
    Source
  • October 2020
    FSD beta rollout happening tonight. Will be extremely slow & cautious, as it should.
    Source
  • December 2020
    I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year.
    Source
  • December 2020
    I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%
    Source
  • January 2021
    Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.
    Source
  • January 2021
    FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021
    Source
  • March 2021
    Due to high levels of demand for FSD Beta, adding “Download Beta” button to Service section of car display in ~10 days
    Source
  • March 2021
    Build 8.3 of FSD should be done QA testing by end of next week, so that’s roughly when download button should show up
    Source
  • March 2021
    Next significant release will be in April. Going with pure vision — not even using radar. This is the way to real-world AI.
    Source
  • April 2021
    Button timing of May is aspirational. Depends on how well limited beta of V9.0 goes, but I would be surprised if wide beta (aka button) is later than June. FSD subscription next month is a sure thing.
    Source
  • April 2021
    Any wisdom on limited v9 fsd beta release ? - Probably two weeks
    Source
We’re at Sept 10 and no FSD Beta update evident. Feeling kinda dumb for hoping that Elons timeline would be real this time. And obviously no broad rollout of new version in a couple of weeks either. He is always overly optimistic and FSD Beta reveals show real progress, but im feeling that dropping $8K on FSD would have been better spent on more Tesla stock. i hope Im proven wrong.
 

idriveacar

Member
Jun 30, 2021
66
121
Fremont
We’re at Sept 10 and no FSD Beta update evident. Feeling kinda dumb for hoping that Elons timeline would be real this time. And obviously no broad rollout of new version in a couple of weeks either. He is always overly optimistic and FSD Beta reveals show real progress, but im feeling that dropping $8K on FSD would have been better spent on more Tesla stock. i hope Im proven wrong.

Wasn't it supposed to come out at midnight though? A source on Twitter earlier today said it was on track. Did it actually get delayed again?
 

planetary

Member
Dec 29, 2018
253
541
Danville, CA
Testers on the Callin call are not seeing downloads yet, and have not gotten the usual emails yet. Some folks think it's not going to happen tonight -- maybe tomorrow.
 

ahmadr

Member
Sep 2, 2016
31
27
North CA
Most other OEMs just repackage mediocre L2 systems from Mobileye and the like.
They are not all mediocre. Some are pretty decent. For all-around driving, Tesla's L2 system is IMHO currently the best. For geofenced highways, not so much.

But only one auto company, Tesla, sells an L2 system with the unsubstantiated promise of L5 in a few weeks to a few years. Something their lawyers admit that will exceed L2 anytime soon.

If anything, instead of the FSD theatre which has gotten pretty old, I wish Tesla was actually pushing towards L3 (even for limited conditions), as other automakers are.
 

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