FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[Mardak]

I'm trying to figure out what the purpose of sending an early, more buggy version of FSD 12 out to an influencer would be

Maybe this 12.x rollout will be similarly "extremely slow & cautious" like the initial FSD Beta first rolling out on October 20, 2020 which was also an early, buggy version going to influencers. The Q3 2020 update was the very next day with some mentions:

Operations​

First step of FSD beta rollout started in Oct. 2020​

​

Autopilot & Full Self Driving (FSD)​

Our Autopilot team has been focused on a fundamental architectural rewrite of our neural networks and control algorithms. This rewrite will allow the remaining driving features to be released. In October, we sent the first FSD software update enabled by the rewrite to a limited number of Early Access Program users City Streets. As we continue to collect data over time, the system will become more robust.​

<early FSD developer mode visualizations>​

How our Neural Net understands the same intersection (generalized approach for any unmapped intersection)​

 

[zoomer0056]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749670717719998501

Impressive.

 

[Buckminster]

20 mins in - pedestrians. Omar missed that car might have been concerned about potential for another car coming around the corner.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Tesla only has itself to blame for the NHTSA action, with the very loose and risky deployment of this ADAS technology from the public statements to lack of controls down right to the naming conventions

It wasn’t so long ago that Elon was scoffing at the idea of using the cabin camera for eye tracking at all

It's actually the opposite, Elon was asked about using the cabin camera in place of the steering nag, which he agreed to do:
Tesla FSD Beta users will be able to turn off steering wheel nags this Jan
NHTSA clamped down and killed that idea pretty quickly:
Elon Musk might have tweeted himself into hot water — again — with a regulator

 

[powertoold]

How much more do we need to see before concluding Tesla and team have basically done it?

The craziest thing is I have no idea how all of this is possible

 

[Bladerskb]

How much more do we need to see before concluding Tesla and team have basically done it?

The craziest thing is I have no idea how all of this is possible

Done what exactly? Achieved L5 or L4 or L3 better than a skilled human driver?
Or is it that they can now handle all DDTs such as obeying hand signals and handheld stop signs, respond to emergency lights/vehicles? stop for school bus stop sign? reverse? 3-point turns? consistently perform u-turns? etc..

I'm so confused...

 

[Bladerskb]

However, looking carefully at the screen, it does appear smoother than prior iterations. It is hard to cherry pick that. And that would improve L2 usability (currently mostly unusable on City Streets with passengers remember!).

We’ll see is this holds up in further videos with sound (important for assessing smoothness since you can hear things moving around).

True there is a clear improvement on comfort and driving style. But the issue is that the Tesla faithful don't see it as that. As usual on the eve of every new version they proclaim it as a "Technological breakthrough on scale never seen before. A game, set, match!"

 

[zoomer0056]

True there is a clear improvement on comfort and driving style. But the issue is that the Tesla faithful don't see it as that. As usual on the eve of every new version they proclaim it as a "Technological breakthrough on scale never seen before. A game, set, match!"

Yes ... no .... yes. The yeses have it!

 

[kabin]

How much more do we need to see before concluding Tesla and team have basically done it?

The craziest thing is I have no idea how all of this is possible

It looks promising. The big take away for me is it appears much smoother - thank gawd for that finally! There's less stop sign confusion but even that wasn't perfect. There's still occasional indecisiveness and it sometimes needs throttle encouragement to start. There's no shortage of things to test like merging traffic, merging lanes, rush hour, highways, the many roundabout types (without following lead vehicles), oodles of time critical scenarios, different territories, emergency vehicles, school bus stop signs, phantom braking, unprotected lefts, narrow roads, reading signs, bright sunlight/glare, obstructed intersections, and all those quirky edge cases we all experience.

 

[aronth5]

The problem is the nag-o-matic becomes disruptive. I've complained about this before - if they are doing gaze tracking and it can tell I'm looking at the road, why does it nag me every 10 seconds? (Yes, I've timed it.) I've had it nag me when I'm looking down to change the climate settings. I've had it nag me when I look down to see what the alert that just popped up was (the alert said "pay attention to the road" ) I've had it nag me the I was looking at the nav screen to make sure I would have enough battery to make it home.

The latest changes really have made it more of a chore to use FSD without improving my focus (and at times disrupting my focus.) As such I view them as a failure.

I do agree with you but I never have a nagging problem from camera monitoring during the day which is 90% of my driving. I simply wear my prescription sunglasses. Still need rotational torque on the wheel but I do that anyway out of habit. Once Tesla realized it was so easy to defeat camera monitoring they may have decided not to remove steering wheel related nagging. Maybe HW4 will allow Tesla to fix this.

 

[zoomer0056]

It looks promising. The big take away for me is it appears much smoother - thank gawd for that finally! There's less stop sign confusion but even that wasn't perfect. There's still occasional indecisiveness and it sometimes needs throttle encouragement to start. There's no shortage of things to test like merging traffic, merging lanes, rush hour, [snip ...... snip] and all those quirky edge cases we all experience.

A monumental task .... very difficult. Progress is being made.

 

[Captkerosene]

First you said “what we are seeing is AGI,” not “Elon said ‘this is AGI.’”

Secondly, Elon has clearly shown he is no AI expert. He has said many, many things since 2015 that show his grasp of machine learning and neural nets is tenuous. Does he hire and rely on many AI experts to produce his Advance Driver Assist System feature for Tesla automobiles? Absolutely. But outside of being an early tester I am confident he’s never contributed one iota of content in the development of FSD.

Why do you assume his grasp of AGI is any better than that of conventional machine learning. Just listen to the podcasts he does, like with Joe Rogan. Sure he’s a visionary when it comes to marshaling money and resources to bleeding edge technology, but he’s clearly no AI expert. And if he had said FSD was AGI, then it would just have been further proof that this was the case.

"BABY" AGI. Does anyone in the world think that the terms BABY AGI and AGI are interchangeable? You intentionally have misquoted me twice now. Then you attack the misquote. Red herring.

I don't know (or care) what your issue with Elon is. But, I think I'll go with him over you.

 

[uscbucsfan]

"BABY" AGI. Does anyone in the world think that the terms BABY AGI and AGI are interchangeable? You intentionally have misquoted me twice now. Then you attack the misquote. Red herring.

I don't know (or care) what your issue with Elon is. But, I think I'll go with him over you.

FSD isn't using any sort of AGI, even a stretched made up term like "baby AGI".

No further need to get upset.

 

[dloomis]

Does anyone know if FSD 12 is used in highway driving? There were people questioning that based on the wording in the leaked release notes last month.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Does anyone know if FSD 12 used in highway driving? There were people questioning that based on the wording in the leaked release notes last month.

Yes...it is.

 

[lzolman]

How much more do we need to see before concluding Tesla and team have basically done it?

I don't know about we, but I need to see it all happening with myself behind the wheel. I don't think that's asking too much.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I don't know about we, but I need to see it all happening with myself behind the wheel. I don't think that's asking too much.

Yes. Really odd response considering that Omar has posted since V10 that FSD was basically solved and showed 0 intervention drives.

That's what he does. He's an influencer/shill. He curates the best drives he can and posts them.

 

[lzolman]

That’s how you know it’ll be a quantum leap
in performance

I saw what you did there

 

[spacecoin]

Done what exactly? Achieved L5 or L4 or L3 better than a skilled human driver?
Or is it that they can now handle all DDTs such as obeying hand signals and handheld stop signs, respond to emergency lights/vehicles? stop for school bus stop sign? reverse? 3-point turns? consistently perform u-turns? etc..

I'm so confused...

They've sold L2 as L5. Walked it back over the last year "supervised autonomy" (it's autonomous, just it's not). And now everyone is happy?

It potentially went form a crappy wide-ODD L2 to a decent wide ODD L2. TBD.

Talk about moving goal posts and lowering expectations.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

driving down an empty 2 lane highway in overcast weather on dry roads.

Guess v11 is broken for you. No idea in that use case why it would have so many problems.

So you see this eyes on the road AND with both hands on the wheel (at 9 and 3, not at the bottom, in your lap)?
For example, this shows none of that. The nags are infrequent, though as I said they need to work on driving down false positives (perhaps one here though I did yawn):

There's less stop sign confusion but even that wasn't perfect.

Yeah the latest videos show that the car has no idea how to sequence itself at stop signs. It did very poorly when other traffic was present, giving up right of way multiple times and at one point doing it twice.

We’ll see if that is something they can actually tune up - this sequencing problem seems like it could be something difficult for a NN to pick up on. Of course Omar just claimed Tesla was being conservative, even though at one point it started moving out of turn.

I don’t see any evidence it knows how to handle them given the failure rate demonstrated - would be good to see compilations of stop signs.

Still, having to intervene at every stop sign when there is traffic does not seem like a big deal if progress is made on many of the other planning problems. After all, the objective is limping over the line to an acceptable L2 aid that does not terrify passengers.

That’s another thing I want to see - 40-50mph scenarios on surface streets between traffic lights. Would be good to eliminate the “charging up to stop light” behavior (also seen above - a minor case, not severe, though poor in wet conditions; can be much worse).