FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[AlanSubie4Life]

What you describe is also way too complex for a NHTSA tester to verify

I’m not suggesting what they should have done.

I am just pointing out that we don’t know what the NHTSA wanted or how exactly any design parameters were quantified.

That’s it.

There’s a whole forum myth ongoing about the NHTSA forcing Tesla to increase the stopping duration beyond some arbitrary value. And there is really not a lot of evidence for that. Now you’ve introduced additional speculation that it was the speedometer in the car that they are looking at (no evidence for this - it could well be the case of course)!

It’s clear only that NHTSA wants an actual stop to occur.

I have no idea why people think this behavior at stop signs has something to do with the NHTSA, to be honest. It’s clearly only necessary to stop the car, and then continue. What we are talking about at stop signs is behavior where the actual stop duration is in excess of a second. That’s obviously not something to do with the recall.

Eventually (it may be years) this problem will be fixed and then people will stop complaining about it, just like they have (mostly) for various issues that have occurred with FSD Beta over the years.

 

[willow_hiller]

So then it is beta...

Yes. Only you and Tweedledee over there seem confused about that fact.

 

[Bladerskb]

Yes. Only you and Tweedledee over there seem confused about that fact.

So the statement "Version 12 won’t be beta" is clearly false and just another release hype branding..

V12 won't be beta the same way V11 won't be beta and V10 and V9, etc. If you actually intellectually apply Elon's statements on "solving FSD" in 6 months, this year, etc. That he has been saying for years. And none of that ever happened.

 

[diplomat33]

Was anyone really expecting the first wide version of V12 to completely drop the Beta label?

The reasonable interpretation is that V12 has the network architecture and features required to move out of Beta. But only after a metric ton of additional training and several additional point releases.

Yes it is a reasonable interpretation if you know the history of Tesla's FSD and how FSD development works. But I think you can also see how someone, especially if they are new to Tesla and don't know Elon's infamous history of bad FSD predictions, might believe that V12 would drop the beta label. After all, Elon emphatically said V12 would not be beta with no ifs or buts or qualifiers. He did not say that V12 would drop the beta label in the future after a lot of training, he simply said that V12 would not be beta. He did not specify which V12 or when V12 would drop the beta label. Of course, experienced Tesla owners have learned that we cannot believe any of Elon's FSD predictions.

 

[willow_hiller]

Yes it is a reasonable interpretation if you know the history of Tesla's FSD and how FSD development works. But I think you can also see how someone, especially if they are new to Tesla and don't know Elon's infamous history of bad FSD predictions, might believe that V12 would drop the beta label. After all, Elon emphatically said V12 would not be beta with no ifs or buts or qualifiers. He did not say that V12 would drop the beta label in the future after a lot of training, he simply said that V12 would not be beta. He did not specify which V12 or when V12 would drop the beta label. Of course, experienced Tesla owners have learned that we cannot believe any of Elon's FSD predictions.

Correct. All he said was that V12 wouldn't be Beta. He didn't say when V12 would achieve that state.

So we know that V12.1 is Beta, and Elon is predicting that V12.x will not be.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Correct. All he said was that V12 wouldn't be Beta. He didn't say when V12 would achieve that state.

So we know that V12.1 is Beta, and Elon is predicting that V12.x will not be.

But using Elon's history, it's also a safe bet that v12 will remain Beta through all versions.

 

[Mullermn]

Yes it is a reasonable interpretation if you know the history of Tesla's FSD and how FSD development works. But I think you can also see how someone, especially if they are new to Tesla and don't know Elon's infamous history of bad FSD predictions, might believe that V12 would drop the beta label. After all, Elon emphatically said V12 would not be beta with no ifs or buts or qualifiers. He did not say that V12 would drop the beta label in the future after a lot of training, he simply said that V12 would not be beta. He did not specify which V12 or when V12 would drop the beta label. Of course, experienced Tesla owners have learned that we cannot believe any of Elon's FSD predictions.

You’re probably correct that a lot of people will have interpreted it this way, but it’s not fair to blame this one on Musk’s recklessly enthusiastic communication.

The alpha/beta/release candidate designation has always traditionally been a separate axis to the version number of software. A given version would go through an alpha release, a beta release etc on its way to being signed off for general release and losing those designations.

Saying v12 will not be beta should be interpreted as saying that v12 will be the first version that will pass a beta stage and enter general release, not that it will never have a beta label.

I blame Google. They’re the ones that redefined ‘beta’ to mean ‘we aren’t prepared to commit to this software/service being complete’.

 

[spacecoin]

I blame Google. They’re the ones that redefined ‘beta’ to mean ‘we aren’t prepared to commit to this software/service being complete’.

Tesla definately upped the stakes by applying the same label for safety-critical applications. Autosteer and Autopilot has been beta since day 1 (ap2).

It's highly likely that FSD:s beta label will be there at least until they remove it from everything else Auto*

 

[Mullermn]

Tesla definately upped the stakes by applying the same label for safety-critical applications. Autosteer and Autopilot has been beta since day 1 (ap2).

It's highly likely that FSD:s beta label will be there at least until they remove it from everything else Auto*

Yes, I agree with that. NoA doesn’t need a beta label and hasn’t done the whole time we’ve had our Tesla.

Software can be out of beta while still having flaws and room for improvement.

 

[mongo]

Yes it is a reasonable interpretation if you know the history of Tesla's FSD and how FSD development works. But I think you can also see how someone, especially if they are new to Tesla and don't know Elon's infamous history of bad FSD predictions, might believe that V12 would drop the beta label. After all, Elon emphatically said V12 would not be beta with no ifs or buts or qualifiers. He did not say that V12 would drop the beta label in the future after a lot of training, he simply said that V12 would not be beta. He did not specify which V12 or when V12 would drop the beta label. Of course, experienced Tesla owners have learned that we cannot believe any of Elon's FSD predictions.

Has there been any public (non-Tesla employee vehicle) release of any V12 version of FSD from which to make any determination of whether the publicly released version of V12 includes the "Beta" modifier?

Or are people drawing conclusions based on an internal, in testing, not released, set of software that is in the pre-release state and thus expected to be Beta/ Alpha/ rc-x?

I mean are people trying to make the claim that Elon's post means there would never be a development branch for v12?

Also "Version 12 won’t be beta" is not emphatic. Based on this debate it's not clear, and the wording is not forceful.
'No released version 12 FSD will have the Beta tag!' is emphatic.

 

[diplomat33]

With every new rewrite/version, Elon gets hyped and thinks that Tesla is on the cusp of "solving FSD". I feel like "V12 won't be beta" is just more of the same hype.

 

[spacecoin]

With every new rewrite/version, Elon gets hyped and thinks that Tesla is on the cusp of "solving FSD". I feel like "V12 won't be beta" is just more of the same hype.

People jump to conclusions that beta equals L2 and that non-beta would equal autonomy. The label "beta" has zero meaning in this context.

FSD City Streets will most likely be L2 for years to come, beta label or not.

 

[LarryClay]

Even basic Autopilot AutoSteer is still Beta.
And robotaxis are just behind the corner ...

 

[aronth5]

From the recall, the actual speed the car travels when rolling is:
"If all the above conditions are met, only then will the vehicle travel through the all-way-stop intersection at a speed from 0.1 mph up to 5.6 mph without first coming to a complete stop."
https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2022/RCLRPT-22V037-4462.PDF

It must also be approaching the intersection at 5.6mph or lower to do so if you read higher up. The indicated speed on the speedometer (as visible on video) may not necessarily reflect the actual speed however.

Before the recall notice NHTSA received complaints of the high rolling speed since you could watch videos demonstrating this. I don't have a link but several times rolling speeds were 7 mph. If Tesla had kept the rolling speed to 1-3 mph NHTSA would have received far few complaints and possibly would not have pursued this so aggressively. They do respond to the number of complaints and Tesla just made it easy for that to happen.

 

[powertoold]

Before the recall notice NHTSA received complaints of the high rolling speed since you could watch videos demonstrating this. I don't have a link but several times rolling speeds were 7 mph. If Tesla had kept the rolling speed to 1-3 mph NHTSA would have received far few complaints and possibly would not have pursued this so aggressively. They do respond to the number of complaints and Tesla just made it easy for that to happen.

Highest I saw, having watched tons of videos, was 5mph

 

[EVNow]

So the statement "Version 12 won’t be beta" is clearly false and just another release hype branding..

V12 won't be beta the same way V11 won't be beta and V10 and V9, etc. If you actually intellectually apply Elon's statements on "solving FSD" in 6 months, this year, etc. That he has been saying for years. And none of that ever happened.

Right - Occam’s razor says - this statement is exact like other Elon’s statements on FSD. Overly optimistic/ unrealistic. Whether he was deliberately lying or not is difficult to determine without additional information/ proof.

Essentially Elon has a very simplistic (almost layman’s or 101 level) understanding of AI. He still thinks the learning and progress is exponential when even linear progress seems difficult to achieve. He just has this story of AlphaGo game in his mind he applies to everything…

Back to 12, IMO the time it takes to general release is directly proportional to how much of an end-to-end this really is …

 

[Supcom]

Even basic Autopilot AutoSteer is still Beta.
And robotaxis are just behind the corner ...

The 'beta' label has no actual meaning and its removal does not impact the usage or legal state of the product in any way. Tesla keeps those designations solely as a way to caution the user so they remain vigilant while using them. There is no reason to get worked up over either its removal or retention.

Besides, once V12 rate of improvement begins to tail off, Tesla will abandon it in favor of some other new architecture for V13.

 

[sleepydoc]

Yeah I have a video of a best-case which ends up at about 1 second. And in real time in the video I felt that to be reasonable so I think that number is fine.

The issue is that the number is variable. And sometimes if stops twice. It’s only ok if it consistently keeps this delay and also proceeds sensibly before other cars clear the intersection.

I think the stopping twice is not due to the ‘full stop at a stop sign’ requirement rather FSD starting then being unsure of itself.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

possibly would not have pursued this so aggressively.

I think given the GUI option, etc., it would have gone this way regardless. Eventually. I have no idea why they ever bothered to have rolling stops. Below 1mph approaching 0mph would have been totally fine and they could have easily made up the time by properly executing the approach and departure (of course still being slower than a “properly executed“ rolling stop).

Anyway there is nothing that I've seen in the public record suggesting the NHTSA is forcing Tesla to stop for long durations at stop signs. So the current behavior seems most likely to be an issue with Tesla code. Hopefully Tesla has a plan for training this properly in v12 so that the behavior has a more natural stop duration. It seems tricky, since there appears to be only a small percentage of drivers who execute legal and optimal stops. How do they know what to train with? Or do they just tell it what they want?

not due to the ‘full stop at a stop sign’ requirement rather FSD starting then being unsure of itself.

Yeah, agreed.

 

[sleepydoc]

Right - Occam’s razor says - this statement is exact like other Elon’s statements on FSD. Overly optimistic/ unrealistic. Whether he was deliberately lying or not is difficult to determine without additional information/ proof.

Essentially Elon has a very simplistic (almost layman’s or 101 level) understanding of AI. He still thinks the learning and progress is exponential when even linear progress seems difficult to achieve. He just has this story of AlphaGo game in his mind he applies to everything…

Back to 12, IMO the time it takes to general release is directly proportional to how much of an end-to-end this really is …

At this point why do we feel in any way compelled to listen to what he says at all? We can have endless debates about whether he’s being ’optimistic,’ ‘aspirational,’ deceitful, lying or is just plain clueless. Regardless the only statements he makes that have any value at all are the ‘rolling out right now’ statements. Beyond that the best you can say is they are a general indication of what might happen at some point in the future.