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It’s real curious why PA and other states aren’t getting it. It can’t be regulatory since it’s still beta
My theory is the most challenging East Coast states aren't getting it because the team has their hands full with issues they've already seen. They may not be gluttons for punishment.
 
I just got v12.3 on a HW4 car in Los Angeles. I’ve been doing the FSD thing since (I think) v10.1 and I’ll update my test route spreadsheet tonight.

I want to be excited but I’ve been hyped so many times before only to be let down by reality. I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves in a few hours.
I do not expect it to be pretty but I do expect it to be quite a bit different for you. Will be interesting.

Tried that today, and it works, but only temporarily (a minute or two).
Yeah it decays away.
 
I do not expect it to be pretty but I do expect it to be quite a bit different for you. Will be interesting.


Yeah it decays away.
12.3 seems to have a strong herd mentality. If there are cars around me driving faster than the speed limit, then 12.3 is likely to speed up to run with the pack.

Sometimes, it will get passed by a faster vehicle and will then speed up. It's sort of like it want someone else up ahead to get the speeding ticket.
 
12.3 seems to have a strong herd mentality. If there are cars around me driving faster than the speed limit, then 12.3 is likely to speed up to run with the pack.

Sometimes, it will get passed by a faster vehicle and will then speed up. It's sort of like it want someone else up ahead to get the speeding ticket.
It's gonna be a pendulum effect, definitely. Many people complain that it won't drive faster than the speed limit without manual intervention. Now it will drive faster than the speed limit (with the herd), and we'll get people complaining that it's now speeding (probably clutching their pearls while typing it, with one hand).

Can't please everyone. :)
 
Is Tesla sending V12 only to "experienced" testers? Whatever that means.

11.4.9 has been sent to everybody, it seems, including those who have not yet paid forFSD and/or were not part of the early testers who had passed the safety score threshold.

But 12 appears to be going only to folks who had FSD V11 prior to 11.4.9. All of the updates to 12.x so far are from 2023.44.30 or before, of course, because 12.3 is 2023.44.25, and there is no "backdating".

But that means that none of these cars had been updated past 2023.44.16 in spite of the fact that there have been 9 updates since then. None of the 12.x cars received any of them. I'm not complaining, but why is this so?

I, for one, did not get invited to download any of those updates before the notice came that 12.2.1 was available. Many of the 10,000 TelsaFi folks who have updated to 2024.2.7 (11.4.9) were previously on 2023.44.30.14 or earlier, but almost all already had 11.4.9.

This all seems to suggest that Tesla is keeping a list of some set of early testers. Also it suggests that many of the 5,000 or so folks still on 2023.44.30.14 or earlier may well be on the list and may be updated to V12 soon, assuming it continues to roll out soon.

Again, I am not complaining. This all makes complete sense, to send it to experienced testers first. But when the production branch and FSD beta branch were merged with 11.4.9, there was some thought that the Beta program was over.
So.. Just to throw more cats into the henhouse..

At one time, pretty regular, there were the people with FSD and, unless one actually subscribed to FSD, there was no FSD, at all, in any way, on a Tesla. At that time, it was all pretty obvious: Those with the FSD loads had overall load numbers that were further back in time than Everybody Else. Everybody Else was getting nifty new features involving charging, games, screen layouts, and whatever the wiz kids back at Tesla could dream up. Those of us on FSD missed out on the whiz kid stuff, but we had our reward: Something that with a fair amount of hazard, could theoretically drive around on city streets.

Under this regime, the major load numbers and the FSD load numbers would line up roughly two or three times a year. At which point the FSD gang would get the whiz-kid stuff. And, to make a point about it, even when the load lines lined up, the FSD-enabled load was still different than the "main" load line. I dunno, making up an incorrect example, the main load line during a so-called line-up would be 2021.6.10.5, but the FSD load would be (at the line-up) 2021.6.10.6. Or 0.4.

As I said, the load lines lined up two or three times a year, but, very definitely, that line-up occurred at Christmas, at which point everybody got the holiday update. Even so, the FSD-containing load was still an .(n+1) or something different from the main load line.

Main point of all this: Suppose that, in March, some enterprising soul antes up $10k for FSD and pays up. They're not going to get FSD until the load line with FSD in it catches up with what they've got: They might wait months until that happened, grousing all the way.

This all changed in 2023. First, all the regular load lines acquired an FSD load. So, no matter what the main load number was, one would have access to 10.80.30 or whatever FSD was if one suddenly decided one wanted to either pay outright for FSD or for a subscription. No more waiting around for three or six months for the FSD load line to catch up: FSD would get enabled right off.

And then the miracle occurred last year in December: Not only did the FSD main load catch up to the load numbers that Everybody Else had, it became equal to what they had. Hah. THAT never happened before. So, we were all on 2023.44.30.whatever, both those of us who had paid for FSD and those who had not.

Interesting. So, the Everything Else gambit appears to be working. I think. People who haven't actually paid for FSD are getting all sorts of nifty updates: Better charging controls, better wi-fi and bluetooth controls, stuff like that, and it looks like the crowd is getting updated to 2024.8.4. But that load has 11.4.9 embedded in it. Meaning that if a 2024.8.4 user pays up for FSD, they're going to get 11.4.9. Which isn't too bad, I suppose.

In the meantime here's the rest of us with enabled FSD and we're messing around hoping to get 2023.44.30.25 with 12.3 baked in. Those who are moving to that are coming from a load from last year that had 11.4.9, or something earlier, or 12.2.1.

So, what's all this about, then?
  1. Most of us waiting around don't even have the NHTSA icon font change Emergency Recall stuff that Everybody Else has got.
  2. Methinks that 12.whatever isn't going General Release until it gets embedded in an Everybody Else load, so that people who want FSD immediately get 12.whatever.
  3. The implication is that those of us who've opted into the whole FSD-b-testing regime are getting FSD loads that, I think, are more experimental than usual. Of, if not exactly experimental, are Tesla's serious attempts to come up with an FSD load that.. really.. is non-beta.
And that all might explain why things are moving more slowly than usual. Yeah, there's a lot more Dojo-style training going on, and Elon thinks that what they did between 12.2.1 and 12.3 may go faster. But, on the other hand, it looks like Tesla is trying to deploy just enough FSD-b of a release to get just enough valid data to train that release for the next step.

My conclusion: We just got through a wave of loads that worked across a dozen states or so. Betcha we end up waiting another week or so, then a different batch of states get a similar number of downloads. If nothing else, Tesla can do a contrast-and-compare. And this could end up repeating. Over and over with different batches of states until Tesla Is Happy. And, when they're happy - then it gets released to Everybody, even for those who haven't paid for it, embedded for the day that they do.

Fun.
 
I would be surprised if this goes wide. I think we are still one or two releases away from wide.

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V12.3 is damned impressive! It will speed up or slow down appropriately to make a lane change. It will glide over several lanes if it needs to get to a turning lane quickly. It will smoothly drive around stopped delivery vans then move right back into the lane. It even started to cross a 4 way intersection then quickly stopped when a car, who didn't have the right of way, drove forward. Just about all the situations I've encountered have been handled as well as i could have. -- There are still issues. A left turn I have to make to go home is sometimes perfect but sometimes not. It has turned into the left lane several times and quite a few times it drives way too far right directly towards a curb. It also tries to turn right at a 'no turn on red' intersection. So there is more training needed, for sure, but what it has been trained on is working exceedingly well and should begin to quiet the naysayers.
 
And that all might explain why things are moving more slowly than usual. Yeah, there's a lot more Dojo-style training going on, and Elon thinks that what they did between 12.2.1 and 12.3 may go faster. But, on the other hand, it looks like Tesla is trying to deploy just enough FSD-b of a release to get just enough valid data to train that release for the next step.
First, what a post, thank you.
The part I quoted rang really true to me. I guess if the rollout never gets to New England and then a new version shows up, we get our first glimpse of how long a training cycle takes?
 
If there are cars around me driving faster than the speed limit, then 12.3 is likely to speed up to run with the pack.

I personally really like this behavior. This is exactly how FSD should be driving.

It's a bit more relevant to highway driving, but I personally always aim to keep up with traffic. I don't really care about the speed limit (I'll happily go 15-18 mph over here in CO, when everyone else is, or just chill and hang out at the speed limit, depending on how traffic is). I'm very attentive to not holding people up behind me though.