Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[MarcG]

So since none of us have heard a damn thing, do we want to pass the time by taking guesses at the surprises @Ribeyesteak's contact mentioned?

My guesses:

- Model S LR only has an 85-90kWh battery and is now the most efficient EV on the market (explains the weight reduction and faster than Model 3 charging speeds)

- All new visualizations thanks to either HW4 or the GPU (no more lines and cars jumping around all over the place - much more advanced graphics)

- Works with Xbox Game Pass (for video games)

- Screen in the back can be popped out and pulled up to eye level

- Comes with a rear and front megacasting, significantly reduce parts

- Battery has new system to improve cold weather performance.

Anyone else?

I think the battery pack will be over 90kWh but higher sustained charging capacity will be possible thanks to the new thermal architecture.

HW4 likely.

Not sure about Xbox, frankly don’t care.

Doubt rear screen will pop out to eye level (or at all).

Front & rear megacastings, yes.

Better thermal management, as stated above. Plus heat pump.

My guess: AP will no longer require hands on wheel but interior cabin will make sure you’re paying attention (à la GM).

 

[BrandonLive]

Nah, they are going to ship you a 2022 roadster. Also - hopefully this guy's contact knows that we already all know about the "guessing" the drive mode crap, since Elon tweeted it. That's actually one of my least favorite things about the car, tbh. Also hope it isn't "surprise, everyone gets 7 seats!" because that would suck.

So whats my money on?

"SURPISE! HW4 including a brand new chipset is coming!" which would help explain why the cameras are different and how the car can run The Witcher 3 when the Model 3/Y can barely run the internet browser. The CPU is just as important as the GPU (not to mention the RAM and all of that). I can't imagine they'd spend the money to incorporate that kind of processing power for video games alone.

The AP/FSD computer has nothing at all to do with the infotainment system. However, having the new computer included is possible - but I wouldn’t count on it.

I have been hoping that a slightly-more-possible surprise is some sensor upgrades, especially for the radar. Camera upgrades could be good too, though that could vary from just improved angles (e.g. FOV of the repeaters) or additional cameras (e.g. near the front bumper, under the mirrors) to improved cameras.

I expect one feature to be that when you’re navigating, even without AP, it automatically activates the turn signals when needed. Though I don’t know if/why they would limit this to just the new S/X, it might help alleviate some of the “stalkless” concerns of it actually works.

Immensely curious what else might be hiding in there though. Really eager for *someone* to get theirs and talk about it, even if mine takes a little longer since I only ordered 2-3 weeks ago.

 

[Tigers]

The AP/FSD computer has nothing at all to do with the infotainment system. However, having the new computer included is possible - but I wouldn’t count on it.

While in today's Teslas this is a true statement, I'm thinking that the new GPU has to have a higher purpose than just playing video games while charging. This is why I'm betting on having much better visualizations shown in the UI, which makes perfect sense. If it does have HW4 (or a newer FSD chip) - the FSD chip could be solely dedicated to make decisions/moving the car and the GPU/processor receives that data and displays a much better looking mapping for the driver.

You aren't going to be able to play video games in the front while driving, so the graphics/resolution can be significantly reduced for the back seat passengers if they are playing, while using the GPU to also render graphics for the Autopilot system.

Otherwise, I don't the the computers in today's cars are ever really going to get beyond the basic graphics and dancing lines...I believe they can make it smoother, but I don't think it's going to be able to handle rendering stuff, which is why everything is basic AF right now with no improvements in quite some time.

 

[TurboBear]

- Model S LR only has an 85-90kWh battery and is now the most efficient EV on the market (explains the weight reduction and faster than Model 3 charging speeds)

I doubt this, I think it's ~100kWH and they just wanted to push the EPA estimate just above the entry Lucid Air.

 

[BruceR61]

So, I ordered a 2021 LR to replace my 2017 MS (with almost 100k miles) on Sunday. I’m not going to complete the payment aspect until I get a Vin. It says 4 to 11 weeks. I don’t mind the longer wait because they’ll get the kinks out of assembly line by then.

One question that I ask, which I have not been able to find anywhere, is whether the new car will have Sirius radio?

 

[Tigers]

I doubt this, I think it's ~100kWH and they just wanted to push the EPA estimate just above the entry Lucid Air.

Maybe, but it would be strange to reduce the weight by 7%, make it more aerodynamic, update the battery architecture just for 10 measly miles extra. I highly doubt that's the case. Of course, we don't know, but nowhere does it say how big the battery pack is on anything anymore. Hell, we probably won't even know until someone tears it down or hacks into it.

 

[BrandonLive]

While in today's Teslas this is a true statement, I'm thinking that the new GPU has to have a higher purpose than just playing video games while charging. This is why I'm betting on having much better visualizations shown in the UI, which makes perfect sense. If it does have HW4 (or a newer FSD chip) - the FSD chip could be solely dedicated to make decisions/moving the car and the GPU/processor receives that data and displays a much better looking mapping for the driver.

You aren't going to be able to play video games in the front while driving, so the graphics/resolution can be significantly reduced for the back seat passengers if they are playing, while using the GPU to also render graphics for the Autopilot system.

Otherwise, I don't the the computers in today's cars are ever really going to get beyond the basic graphics and dancing lines...I believe they can make it smoother, but I don't think it's going to be able to handle rendering stuff, which is why everything is basic AF right now with no improvements in quite some time.

The dancing lines aren’t a hardware/rendering problem, they’re an intentional software choice to show the ambiguity/lack-of-confidence in output, which is partly to help keep drivers from getting complacent when using AP.

The infotainment computer will never have anything to do with actual AP/FSD driving functionality, for multiple reasons. The FSD computer has dedicated (and redundant) chips, redundant power supplies, redundant connections to sensors, etc.

It’s true that the infotainment unit is responsible for the driver visualization rendering, and it is very likely that this will enable cars with this hardware to have a richer “FSD visualization”. That isn’t a surprise though, that’s inevitable. Whether they’re prioritizing that right now or not is another question.

 

[TurboBear]

Maybe, but it would be strange to reduce the weight by 7%, make it more aerodynamic, update the battery architecture just for 10 measly miles extra. I highly doubt that's the case. Of course, we don't know, but nowhere does it say how big the battery pack is on anything anymore. Hell, we probably won't even know until someone tears it down or hacks into it.

Purely spectulative alternatives:

1. The new EPA estimate is "more accurate" for real world driving than previous estimates as a result of the efficiency improvements AND beats Lucid Air. Inability to achieve anywhere near EPA estimate is a common complaint.
2. Tesla is using a larger buffer for the 18650 architecture batteries than before.
3. Some combination of the above plus a smaller battery, I just doubt they've gone as low as 85kWh.

 

[Tigers]

Purely spectulative alternatives:

1. The new EPA estimate is "more accurate" for real world driving than previous estimates as a result of the efficiency improvements AND beats Lucid Air. Inability to achieve anywhere near EPA estimate is a common complaint.
2. Tesla is using a larger buffer for the 18650 architecture batteries than before.
3. Some combination of the above plus a smaller battery, I just doubt they've gone as low as 85kWh.

OK, alright, I can see these options. I do hope it stays at 100kWh, given the use of the HVAC/other items still eats range regardless of the weight of the car or the drag. So, I hope you are right. I would like a real world driving range of 412 and a larger buffer as well.

I see the new Model S/X as a way for Tesla to correct some of their mistakes of old, starting with build quality, but also cabin materials/feel and actual driving performance (not 0-60, but range and efficiency). Would love to see them have learned from their previous issues and found a way to correct many of them (like they did the 12volt battery).

 

[BrandonLive]

Really curious why Tigers and Sam3194 downvoted my reply. It accurately and helpfully stated facts about the Tesla’s architecture. Very bizarre.

 

[BrandonLive]

OK, alright, I can see these options. I do hope it stays at 100kWh, given the use of the HVAC/other items still eats range regardless of the weight of the car or the drag. So, I hope you are right. I would like a real world driving range of 412 and a larger buffer as well.

I see the new Model S/X as a way for Tesla to correct some of their mistakes of old, starting with build quality, but also cabin materials/feel and actual driving performance (not 0-60, but range and efficiency). Would love to see them have learned from their previous issues and found a way to correct many of them (like they did the 12volt battery).

The new MCU, larger screen, and additional screen also likely have higher power draw. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if they turn off the rear screen when no one is there which probably would help during EPA tests.

It will be interesting to see where the actual EPA tests land, versus the current pre-production estimates. I hope they’ve been conservative with those.

 

[sam3194]

The dancing lines aren’t a hardware/rendering problem, they’re an intentional software choice to show the ambiguity/lack-of-confidence in output, which is partly to help keep drivers from getting complacent when using AP.

Really curious why Tigers and Sam3194 downvoted my reply. It accurately and helpfully stated facts about the Tesla’s architecture. Very bizarre.

See top comment. The rendering problem is not an intentional software choice.

 

[ScottRoberts33]

So, I ordered a 2021 LR to replace my 2017 MS (with almost 100k miles) on Sunday. I’m not going to complete the payment aspect until I get a Vin. It says 4 to 11 weeks. I don’t mind the longer wait because they’ll get the kinks out of assembly line by then.

One question that I ask, which I have not been able to find anywhere, is whether the new car will have Sirius radio?

I have Sirius on my 2020 Model S, so I can’t see why your’s wouldn’t.

 

[Tigers]

See top comment. The rendering problem is not an intentional software choice.

Exactly. It's clear the car's computational abilities are very limited. To say that the crazy dancing around cars and other graphic assets are a software choice is pretty off, imo. Also to say that they are going to include a high powered GPU purely to allow people to play video games, also off.

 

[reddy]

So since none of us have heard a damn thing, do we want to pass the time by taking guesses at the surprises @Ribeyesteak's contact mentioned?

My guesses:

- Model S LR only has an 85-90kWh battery and is now the most efficient EV on the market (explains the weight reduction and faster than Model 3 charging speeds)

- All new visualizations thanks to either HW4 or the GPU (no more lines and cars jumping around all over the place - much more advanced graphics)

- Works with Xbox Game Pass (for video games)

- Screen in the back can be popped out and pulled up to eye level

- Comes with a rear and front megacasting, significantly reduce parts

- Battery has new system to improve cold weather performance.

Anyone else?

Great ideas.

As far as the HW4 , the rumor mill tells me that the CPU chip is about 1 year out. So this year the sales driver will be the refresh, next year's sales driver will be HW4.

 

[Tigers]

Great ideas.

As far as the HW4 , the rumor mill tells me that the CPU chip is about 1 year out. So this year the sales driver will be the refresh, next year's sales driver will be HW4.

As long as we can get a retrofit!

 

[Neon001]

I don’t mind the longer wait because they’ll get the kinks out of assembly line by then.

Extremely unlikely. Keep in mind this isn't a brand new car, though I have no doubt it won't be 100% kink-free. Elon's already announced they're ramping to double shifts now to produce these. The line will be running non-stop to catch up with demand, and there's zero chance that they'll bring it down voluntarily unless changes are safety/recall related. We've seen this before, and Elon even talks about it in his Sandy Munro interview. Paraphrasing, he said the best times to buy are right at the beginning, or well after production has reached steady state and demand has been largely satisfied.

 

[ks1972]

I have Sirius on my 2020 Model S, so I can’t see why your’s wouldn’t.

I also used to see album arts when music played from USB, but that hasn’t worked in months

 

[Hayseed_MS]

Extremely unlikely. Keep in mind this isn't a brand new car, though I have no doubt it won't be 100% kink-free. Elon's already announced they're ramping to double shifts now to produce these. The line will be running non-stop to catch up with demand, and there's zero chance that they'll bring it down voluntarily unless changes are safety/recall related. We've seen this before, and Elon even talks about it in his Sandy Munro interview. Paraphrasing, he said the best times to buy are right at the beginning, or well after production has reached steady state and demand has been largely satisfied.

Was Elon talking from a quality perspective or a sales perspective on when to buy? Was he saying that to load up the demand at the beginning and to load up when demand has subsided?

 

[Neon001]

Was Elon talking from a quality perspective or a sales perspective on when to buy? Was he saying that to load up the demand at the beginning and to load up when demand has subsided?

Quality. Sandy asks him about the inconsistencies across the fleet of Model 3s - why some are spot-on perfect and others are atrocious. His response can be seen here (should load at the correct time, but if not it starts around 2:10):

Edit: you might argue that this doesn't really apply to the Model S since it's already an established line, and you may be correct. Just saying that based on the way that Tesla produces cars, they apparently focus their efforts in increasing line throughput rather than bug fixes during the production ramp. It seems this translates to no significant corrections until they get a substantial number of cars out there and see how they're doing. It actually doesn't sound like a horrible way to do it, assuming you have faith in your initial QC processes.