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Wiki Model S Delivery Update

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That's not correct. I'm looking at DMV data and it shows that Model S/X deliveries will be around 1,867 units in the US in Q1. Also, I have data for Canada plus each country in Europe and Asia/Pacific. I'm calculating 2,573 Model S/X deliveries worldwide in Q1. All of those are the old Model S/X. Tesla will release the actual number on April 2nd or 3rd. We can look back and see if I was close or if I was "rampantly speculating".

I publish Tesla delivery estimates on Twitter here. I will post my final estimate for Q1 tomorrow, on the last day of the quarter as usual. My error rate was less than 2.5% in the last 3 quarters. I'm a Tesla addict.
How are you looking at DMV data?
 
That's not correct. I'm looking at DMV data and it shows that Model S/X deliveries will be around 1,867 units in the US in Q1. Also, I have data for Canada plus each country in Europe and Asia/Pacific. I'm calculating 2,573 Model S/X deliveries worldwide in Q1. All of those are the old Model S/X. Tesla will release the actual number on April 2nd or 3rd. We can look back and see if I was close or if I was "rampantly speculating".

I publish Tesla delivery estimates on Twitter here. I will post my final estimate for Q1 tomorrow, on the last day of the quarter as usual. My error rate was less than 2.5% in the last 3 quarters. I'm a Tesla addict.
Okay. So the real question is what do you predict for Q2? Totally appreciate how hard it is and the time you take to put the I do together. Q2 must be majority S and X refreshes (aside from Ys and 3s) as there can be many more old S and Xs.

My “Estimated Delivery” remains “-“.
 
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Don't know if this has been mentioned before, but the fact that both MX and MS are delayed points to a problem common to both cars, so it's not the yoke, for example.
Apparently, the delay has to do with 'retooling' specifically the tri-motor. This is what was mentioned on a recent Ryan Shaw Tesla video. This post was a couple days ago so my apology if it has been discussed yesterday or today.
 
That's not correct. I'm looking at DMV data and it shows that Model S/X deliveries will be around 1,867 units in the US in Q1. Also, I have data for Canada plus each country in Europe and Asia/Pacific. I'm calculating 2,573 Model S/X deliveries worldwide in Q1. All of those are the old Model S/X. Tesla will release the actual number on April 2nd or 3rd. We can look back and see if I was close or if I was "rampantly speculating".

I publish Tesla delivery estimates on Twitter here. I will post my final estimate for Q1 tomorrow, on the last day of the quarter as usual. My error rate was less than 2.5% in the last 3 quarters. I'm a Tesla addict.
Very cool, and big respect for doing that. On Monday I purchased some June 700 calls so fingers crossed. Cheers
 
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Apparently, the delay has to do with 'retooling' specifically the tri-motor. This is what was mentioned on a recent Ryan Shaw Tesla video. This post was a couple days ago so my apology if it has been discussed yesterday or today.
People are going on and on yakking about Elon or the stock or model y’s or whatever else instead of refresh s deliveries in this thread unfortunately.
Wonder if this is true?
 
The model-S performance statistics are worth a lot of free advertising.
See Lucid dropping a video on Twitter every 3 days. You got to stay in the news.
And Maximum performance will get you in the news, hence the fastest 0-60 and top speed has some value.
The model X on the other hand seems of less value.
 
Good morning, all! Quick question... my loan offer through Tesla expired on 3/29. Can anyone step in for my MIA SA and describe the process moving forward for securing another loan? My “steps completed” section still shows the old loan info, so I can’t find a way to start that process again.

Lastly, will this delay my delivery?

(LR ordered 1/28, shows April as estimated delivery)
 
Good morning, all! Quick question... my loan offer through Tesla expired on 3/29. Can anyone step in for my MIA SA and describe the process moving forward for securing another loan? My “steps completed” section still shows the old loan info, so I can’t find a way to start that process again.

Lastly, will this delay my delivery?

(LR ordered 1/28, shows April as estimated delivery)

It makes me so mad that they told everybody to secure a loan and to pull their credit knowing that it would only last for a limited time before it needed to be re-pulled. You can secure a loan in a matter of 2 to 5 days there was no reason to have everybody fill out credit applications in February. You need to request an extension which they can sometimes do but in many cases they will need to re-run your credit. I am waiting until I know cars are being produced/delivered and until then my account says I’m paying cash.
 
It makes me so mad that they told everybody to secure a loan and to pull their credit knowing that it would only last for a limited time before it needed to be re-pulled. You can secure a loan in a matter of 2 to 5 days there was no reason to have everybody fill out credit applications in February. You need to request an extension which they can sometimes do but in many cases they will need to re-run your credit. I am waiting until I know cars are being produced/delivered and until then my account says I’m paying cash.
The EOQ delivery rush is on

I put our loan information in BUT our credit is frozen so each time they reach out to me to un-freeze I say okay I’ll do that “soon”.....which I have done exactly the # of times Tesla has actually delivered a refreshed S to a customer ❌
 
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That's not correct. I'm looking at DMV data and it shows that Model S/X deliveries will be around 1,867 units in the US in Q1. Also, I have data for Canada plus each country in Europe and Asia/Pacific. I'm calculating 2,573 Model S/X deliveries worldwide in Q1. All of those are the old Model S/X. Tesla will release the actual number on April 2nd or 3rd. We can look back and see if I was close or if I was "rampantly speculating".

I publish Tesla delivery estimates on Twitter here. I will post my final estimate for Q1 tomorrow, on the last day of the quarter as usual. My error rate was less than 2.5% in the last 3 quarters. I'm a Tesla addict.
The Tesla analyst for Wedbush just put out a new delivery estimate and claims that 1Q deliveries for S/X will be 14,000. Do these people actually do any research? They also estimate that 2Q will also be 14,000 units. How can they possibly believe that 14,000 units were delivered when the production line has been shutdown since December? Does anyone know how many units were remaining in inventory at the end of last quarter?

BTW - my delivery estimate still says March!
 
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The mostly likely thing I have seen in the last 200 or so pages is the suggestion that folks with a "-" will take priority over those with "March". IIRC, all the dash orders eew made pre-refresh and are probably being manually sequenced ahead of the folks that ordered post announcement.
This could be but I have a March dash and I didn't order till late February so who really knows what their rhyme or reason is at this point
 
I converted my old order to the refresh in January. There is no mention of a date at all. All tasks show having been completed.

It says:


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