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New button to enable FSD Beta download?

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It's getting near the end of the quarter and I'm also thinking that financial performance of the company is a factor in this release.
I wonder whether they could recognize revenue for a feature that's not pushed out to all cars but has to be downloaded via a relatively hidden method? I guess it's up to the lawyers to decide. But there are likely many FSD purchasers who don't spend time on forums or follow Elon and will have no idea when the button is released.
 
I wonder whether they could recognize revenue for a feature that's not pushed out to all cars but has to be downloaded via a relatively hidden method?
In the past, they've recognized revenue as the software was deployed to different regions (but unclear if it's "software is available" vs "software installed"). I suppose if we estimate $4k average deferred FSD revenue with 10k original wider deployment, that's $40 million, which is about 3% of 2020Q1's automotive gross profit, so it would make some impact if they could recognize.
 
Also, I think it's interesting that most of the replies on this thread are now assuming that the FSD Beta *will* be made available to *all* US vehicles with this option purchased before the end of the quarter. I still think there's a very good chance (50% or more) that they'll either throttle this to the first X people who push the button, or they delay this into next quarter or later. I hope I'm wrong.

I hope so too. The way Elon explains it, it does sound like everyone will be able to gain access, but who knows.
 
Do we know if the download button will mean we get future FSD Beta versions or do we just get the current version like a "FSD trial"? I would hope that it means we get software updates with future FSD Beta versions.
I would hope that it means we always get the current version. Assuming it progresses, is doesn't make sense to leave us on the old one lol
 
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And apparently "FSD Beta 8.3" which has "~1000 improvements" (but not the "all NNs to surround video" Beta 9), so us regular folks might experience significant improvements to "superhuman self-driving" even though originally "much more widely" was waiting for that v9 change instead of the original "10x" with v8.3.
Wait, I am pretty sure Musk said 8.2 has 1000 of improvements... then 8.3 would ofc have many as well.

And yes looks like potentially wide release of v8.3... then v9 would come a little while later which would complete the transition to new NN arch and supposedly major performance improvement.


How do we correct misperceptions about FSD Beta and Autopilot? If the wide release of 8.3 becomes so poorly understood that drivers assume they have FSD when they don't, or just have no idea what the limitations are, then there could be many problems indeed.

Most of the good beta drivers are quite aware of the limitations. New downloaders are going to see this as a super cool thing to show off without understanding it.

If FSD beta goes public, my concern that drivers/users will think they have a fully self driving car that they can take their eyes off the road and not pay attention is very low.


Don't you think we should start in hours?
My guess on reddit was someone's gonna damage or destroy a wheel within the first 48 (probably 24) hours, and I fully expect a multiple-vehicle accident within the first week.

I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong about that.
If people can get used to pandemic deaths, they can get used to Level 2 driver assistance systems leading to accidents. It sounds awful, really really awful, but we as a society are numb to body counts right now. September 11th level deaths happen every day from COVID, so what's a few fender benders, even a few bad crashes? I'm not saying I have that perspective personally, but it may be good timing to introduce a high risk software feature, when people's appetite for risk has increased due to pandemic fatigue.

To all you guys, I'd take that bet, I'd bet that we will not see any high profile accidents from FSD beta for several months after wide release.

Even if FSD performance is awful, and even if FSD performance is 10000x worse then human reliability, I still expect the addition of FSD beta to result in more careful driving overall and fewer accidents than before. I know many if not all will not understand or disagree.


Also, I think it's interesting that most of the replies on this thread are now assuming that the FSD Beta *will* be made available to *all* US vehicles with this option purchased before the end of the quarter. I still think there's a very good chance (50% or more) that they'll either throttle this to the first X people who push the button, or they delay this into next quarter or later. I hope I'm wrong.
Yea, I think this is could very likely end up happening.

Do we know if the download button will mean we get future FSD Beta versions or do we just get the current version like a "FSD trial"? I would hope that it means we get software updates with future FSD Beta versions.

I assume all future version... it if they make fixes or patches for safety... it wouldn't make sense for them to leave the people with the worse performing version.
 
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It's all speculation until we get more information (or the button shows up). My understanding of the original Beta program was that testers were required to sign/acknowledge some type of agreement/NDA. My guess is that we'll be able to download it (from the "car display") and then that will trigger something to do in the app (read and agree) and then we'll be able to install the software.
 
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Looks like the final part for FSD finally came in from the Tesla legal department:

The new City Streets feature is Beta.... blah, blah, blah, .... you indemnify... blah, blah, blah, ... and your heirs.... blah, blah, blah, ... hold Tesla harmless ... blah, blah, ... we can modify this at any time to make your hospital stay more annoying... blah, blah.
 
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It's all speculation until we get more information (or the button shows up). My understanding of the original Beta program was that testers were required to sign/acknowledge some type of agreement/NDA. My guess is that we'll be able to download it (from the "car display") and then that will trigger something to do in the app (read and agree) and then we'll be able to install the software.

Elon said there would be some form of disclaimer that we would have to agree to in order to use FSD Beta. It will probably come when you tap the download button, before the download actually starts. That would be my guess.
 
How will we get this download button? Does it just appear? Or will there be a software update that will add the button? Can they add a button without a software update?

Since it is just adding a button, Tesla could probably do a stealth update over LTE without telling us. But I suspect it will be in a regular update and tell us in the release notes.
 
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I remember back when I had faith in humans to not exceed even my most imaginative projections for the zenith of stupid behavior. Those were simpler times.
There was an interesting article posted about FSD Beta recently:

The gist is given roughly 1000 users (not specially trained) using the system today, the author expected there would be major accidents reported shortly. That did not happen. Basically by making it clear to the driver any responsibility for accidents still lies fully with them, drivers naturally are more careful, than if for example they were instead told the system would keep them safe.

As long as Tesla continues to make that clear, the probability of an accident should not really go up.
 
If changes can be made to the car without my acknowledgment, who actually owns the car?

It could be argued that Tesla still owns your car:

1) Some used car owners were surprised when their features were removed by Tesla: Full Self Driving, Ludicrous...
2) Supercharger capability is blocked for all Tesla salvage titles (even when Tesla does not own them and they are not in their possession or property...)
3) Fonts on the S and X instrument clusters suddenly became tinier in one firmware update and fortunately, they were reverted back after owners' complaints.
 
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It could be argued that Tesla still owns your car:

1) Some used car owners were surprised when their features were removed by Tesla: Full Self Driving, Ludicrous...
2) Supercharger capability is blocked for all Tesla salvage titles (even when Tesla does not own them and they are not in their possession or property...)
3) Fonts on the S and X instrument clusters suddenly became tinier in one firmware update and fortunately, they were reverted back after owners' complaints.
1. Tesla owned the car between trade-in and auction, so it's literally true because Tesla DID own the car as it passed through them.
2. True. New policy since 2020 apparently.
3. Really? You use this as evidence that Tesla "owns" your car? 😂
 
It could be argued that Tesla still owns your car:

1) Some used car owners were surprised when their features were removed by Tesla: Full Self Driving, Ludicrous...
2) Supercharger capability is blocked for all Tesla salvage titles (even when Tesla does not own them and they are not in their possession or property...)
3) Fonts on the S and X instrument clusters suddenly became tinier in one firmware update and fortunately, they were reverted back after owners' complaints.

Same could be said about any software - hardware company. Software changes with time, doesn't make it any less yours, although you might not have a voice in what future updates hold.
 
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