As a Model 3 reservation holder who current drives a 2013 Volt, this is a question that has me particularly curious/concerned.
Before I replaced the OEM tires on my Volt, it was not too difficult to exceed the EPA-rated range by upwards of 40% in the summer with reasonably efficient driving. With more "average" driving it was probably more like 20% over the rated range. Only during winter would I get less than the rated range, and if I was miserly with the cabin heat, even then I could often get at least the rated range. Over the full year, I probably averaged 20% better than the EPA rating.
Based on reading Volt forums, it seems like I drive a bit more conservatively than most other owners. But my experience isn't really out the ordinary, with many/most Volt owners easily exceeding the EPA-rated range in warm weather.
So, reading Tesla forums, I struggle to understand why Model S owners would have such a dramatically different experience, with (seemingly) the large majority falling well short of EPA-rated ranges, and only a small minority that meets or exceeds them, and even then only slightly. (BTW... if this impression is inaccurate, please let me know.)
I can think of lots of little things that might add up: A large percentage of Tesla owners with larger-than-stock wheels, more-aggressive average drivers, more highway driving on average with higher average speeds. But none of these things seem like they could possibly explain the magnitude or consistency of the disparity across all types of owners/drivers.
And as for the more conventional factors that affect efficiency and are different between the 2 vehicles: weight, aerodynamics, rolling resistance, drivetrain efficiency -- those should all be accounted for in the EPA ratings themselves.
So... what's the dealio?