FSD Beta 10.12

[Dewg]

Where computers beat humans regularly is reaction time. Where humans beat computers is in more ineffable qualities, such as intuition. You're right that intuition is based on things - I'll repeat for emphasis - based on. Just like human consciousness, which we still can't define or explain why we have it, there are qualities we possess that computers have a hard time with. You're asking the computer to react as you would, based on your intuition, and get it right every time.

You see a car a 5th of a mile ahead that starts swerving in their lane. You can't read minds, so you don't know what's happening. But your intuition is that the driver is either drunk or distracted in some way and could be a danger to you. You decide to stay back away from them and keep an eye on them. However, other drivers may feel safer if they accelerate and get past the car so they are behind them. Which is the correct choice? If FSD picked the option that you didn't want, would it annoy you?

 

[EVNow]

Anticipating is a human intuition, and as such it's sometimes wrong. Computers don't have human intuition (or "gut feeling").

What exactly is "intuition" ? It is just a learned guess based on a lot of cues. That is why it "comes with experience".

Guess what neural network is trying to imitate ....

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Define "timely" in a way that's acceptable to all people. What I consider "timely" is not the same as what you may consider it.

Timely means reacting when the behavior that needs to be reacted to is first detected, rather than waiting, which seems to be what currently happens.

Where computers beat humans regularly is reaction time.

Currently I have faster reaction time than FSD Beta (assuming I am paying attention and see the relevant object/incident - where FSD theoretically has an advantage), neglecting any anticipatory ability (which would give me additional advantage).

I can’t explain exactly why this is, because it certainly should not be the case! It’s hard to say if it is a perception problem or a planning problem or a bit of both.

Which is the correct choice? If FSD picked the option that you didn't want, would it annoy you?

Right now FSD is unable to detect this so there isn’t really a choice to discuss. Anyway, hypothetically, FSD should give a wide berth (maximize average distance) and minimize interaction time.

 

[Dewg]

What exactly is "intuition" ? It is just a learned guess based on all a lot of cues. That is why it "comes with experience".

Guess what neural network is trying to imitate ....

Intuition: the ability to understand something immediately, without the need for conscious reasoning. A thing that one knows or considers likely from instinctive feeling rather than conscious reasoning.

Will computers get there some day, I think yes. For now, they are more about rules and reaction times. Getting a computer to know something is going to happen without having to "think"... that's another story.

 

[EVNow]

If FSD picked the option that you didn't want, would it annoy you?

If your uber driver picked a different choice what would you do ?

I think the first thing to accept with FSD (or AVs in general) is that it won't drive like us (as an individual). It will always drive like someone else - there might be some choice in terms of chill/aggressive .... but it will be like being driven in a uber. Either an experienced limo driver ("chill") or a young brash driver (""aggressive").

 

[n.one.one]

Right, which is why we say that AP DOES count towards your score...it counts positively. The best way to raise your score is drive 100% of the time in AP.

That's great advice but as been said often you need to be cautious when you end AP.

If you drive 100 miles on AP and then exit the highway you don't want to jam on your brakes as you run up on a slow vehicle on the ramp. Assuming it is after the 3 second buffer you will get a bad score for those 2 events which will result in a bad score for your whole 100 mile+ day. Since your overall rolling 30 day score is based on scores for each day weighted by the miles driven it will have a very negative impact on your cumulative score. On the other hand, if you really focus on the driving before and after AP you should easily have a 100 score for a high mileage day.

 

[Dewg]

Timely means reacting when the behavior that needs to be reacted to is first detected, rather than waiting, which seems to be what currently happens.


Currently I have faster reaction time than FSD Beta (assuming I am paying attention and see the relevant object/incident - where FSD theoretically has an advantage), neglecting any anticipatory ability (which would give me additional advantage).


Right now FSD is unable to detect this so there isn’t really a choice to discuss. Anyway, hypothetically, FSD should give a wide berth (maximize average distance) and minimize interaction time.

And if someone disagrees with your explanation? What if someone, who is a Type A / Aggressive driver thinks they should blow past the car that was swerving ahead? Now their car is giving it a wide berth and keeping a distance. Or perhaps it's changing lanes to get away, and the human is now pissed that his car is "changing lanes unnecessarily".

My point is that you cannot make everyone happy. What makes you happy and would give you a good driving experience (which is likely just the car driving exactly how you drive), may not make others happy, and they'll complain that the system sucks.

 

[EVNow]

Intuition: the ability to understand something immediately, without the need for conscious reasoning. A thing that one knows or considers likely from instinctive feeling rather than conscious reasoning.

If you use that actual intuition definition - obviously none of us have any instinctive ideas about what other drivers will do. It is always learned - just like NN is being trained. That is why 16 year olds when they start driving don't have much of that "intuition". Or for that matter if you get someone from an isolated Amazon tribe to drive for the first time.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

What makes you happy and would give you a good driving experience (which is likely just the car driving exactly how you drive), may not make others happy, and they'll complain that the system sucks.

Right, but that’s not what we are talking about here.

There are objectively good, measurable characteristics which will make everyone happy (well…happier). They are widely studied and researched and agreed upon at this point…

 

[Dewg]

If you use that actual intuition definition - obviously none of us have any instinctive ideas about what other drivers will do. It is always learned - just like NN is being trained. That is why 16 year olds when they start driving don't have much of that "intuition".

Oh I agree with you. There are those that think computers and neural nets will never learn enough to be like us. I disagree - they'll get there someday. It's just that people want that NOW.

 

[Dewg]

Right, but that’s not what we are talking about here.

There are objectively good characteristics which will make everyone happy.

And Tesla is getting there - each update gets us closer. When I got into FSD Beta last year, versus today is very different. Would it be awesome if the next FSD Beta update made the car drive EXACTLY like a human would and jumped us straight to L5? Yes. We're still learning to crawl right now - let's try to walk before we run.

 

[Supcom]

Where computers beat humans regularly is reaction time. Where humans beat computers is in more ineffable qualities, such as intuition. You're right that intuition is based on things - I'll repeat for emphasis - based on. Just like human consciousness, which we still can't define or explain why we have it, there are qualities we possess that computers have a hard time with. You're asking the computer to react as you would, based on your intuition, and get it right every time.

You see a car a 5th of a mile ahead that starts swerving in their lane. You can't read minds, so you don't know what's happening. But your intuition is that the driver is either drunk or distracted in some way and could be a danger to you. You decide to stay back away from them and keep an eye on them. However, other drivers may feel safer if they accelerate and get past the car so they are behind them. Which is the correct choice? If FSD picked the option that you didn't want, would it annoy you?

While humans do have intuition, it is surprising how often that intuition is incorrect, yet we still muddle through. In fact, humans (and other animals for sure) are quite good at performing tasks despite having incomplete, or bad interpretation of data. We can constantly reevaluate and change plans accordingly. So, you may see some aggressive behavior from a driver up ahead and think, 'he's going to cut me off.' If he does, you will be prepared for it, but if not, you shrug it off.

A very good book that delves into how we deal with bad input is "Thinking Fast and Slow", by Nobel prize winning economist Daniel Kahneman. As well as describing how we deal with bad input, the book discusses how much surrounding information we ignore when our attention is fixed on a specific task. I believe that the 're-planning' that humans constantly do is key to how AI needs to do self driving and you see evidence of that in the FSD visualization. And, the fact that AI can keep detailed track of many things simultaneously is how AI can ultimately drive a car more safely than a human.

 

[Dewg]

While humans do have intuition, it is surprising how often that intuition is incorrect, yet we still muddle through. In fact, humans (and other animals for sure) are quite good at performing tasks despite having incomplete, or bad interpretation of data. We can constantly reevaluate and change plans accordingly. So, you may see some aggressive behavior from a driver up ahead and think, 'he's going to cut me off.' If he does, you will be prepared for it, but if not, you shrug it off.

Very true - and unfortunately, even with human intuition and experience, and our ability to reevaluate accordingly, there were nearly 43,000 fatal car crashes last year. :-(

So perhaps we're doing something wrong when we drive.

 

[2101Guy]

Oh I agree with you. There are those that think computers and neural nets will never learn enough to be like us. I disagree - they'll get there someday. It's just that people want that NOW.

People want it NOW because Elon said it would be in place by end of 2017.

 

[jebinc]

So,, about 10.12.x…. Where is it?!

 

[Dewg]

People want it NOW because Elon said it would be in place by end of 2017.

This again? Stop listening to him. It's not that hard. Only believe what the company says. No where in your Tesla ordering experience did it say you'd have it by a specific date. Elon says something optimistic, and I am hopeful, but I NEVER expect what he says is actually going to happen.

Do you believe politicians too?

 

[PACEMD]

This thread is giving me Deja Vu, all over again...........

 

[DrChaos]

Timely means reacting when the behavior that needs to be reacted to is first detected, rather than waiting, which seems to be what currently happens.


Currently I have faster reaction time than FSD Beta (assuming I am paying attention and see the relevant object/incident - where FSD theoretically has an advantage), neglecting any anticipatory ability (which would give me additional advantage).

I can’t explain exactly why this is, because it certainly should not be the case! It’s hard to say if it is a perception problem or a planning problem or a bit of both.

Human eyes in the fovea have better resolution at distance than current Tesla cameras, which are low at 1280x960. Could even be a basic perception problem. Do front dashcam images look like a 'retina display'?

The car is better than people at noticing close-by quick moving objects heading towards the side or from the rear.

 

[sleepydoc]

Currently I have faster reaction time than FSD Beta (assuming I am paying attention and see the relevant object/incident - where FSD theoretically has an advantage), neglecting any anticipatory ability (which would give me additional advantage).

Because your brain is doing far more than you realize it is. Your reaction time is actually based on all the observations you’ve been making for the last couple of minutes without thinking about it, as well as the plans you unconsciously and consciously made and the experience you have from dealing with similar situations.

 

[Dewg]

Human eyes in the fovea have better resolution at distance than current Tesla cameras, which are low at 1280x960. Could even be a basic perception problem. Do front dashcam images look like a 'retina display'?

The car is better than people at noticing close-by quick moving objects heading towards the side or from the rear.

The forward camera has a max range of 800 feet, which is pretty short distance compared to a human. For reference, Waymo's cameras can see double that distance at 1600 feet, and the human eye can see about 8500 feet (a single candle with no obstructions).