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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


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Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Same for tolls. There needs to be something apparent on the top level screen.
Or the car should announce that it will be moving into an HOV lane or onto a toll road. Heck, even say what the toll structure is.

Until Tesla gets FSD fairly bulletproof, I believe that the car needs to provide options for extensive communication about what it's planning to do. Where people are comfortable with a given set of functionality, the voice communication could be turned off. By the time FSDb is rock solid, we'll only leave on the communication features that we want to hear about because it's good information, not because we have to keep an eye on the car at those times.

I'd want the same the other way; expand the voice commands to allow me to change or show settings. Include a little ChatGPT treatment and we'll be asking the car for an analysis of battery usage over the past year, and when it projects it will have lost 10% capacity.

The ultimate goal is to have a knowledgeable and capable chauffeur.

Yes, I often dream the impossible dream.
 
- Improved recall for partial cut-ins by 39% and precision for false positive cut-ins due to lane changes into adjacent lanes by 66%, resulting in a 33% reduction in overall lane-changing prediction error. This was accomplished by further increasing our auto-labeled fleet dataset by 80k clips, improving the accuracy of the auto-labeling algorithm, and tuning the distribution of training supervision.​

These seem like pretty significant percentage increases. The 39% improved recall means 11.3.x wasn't detecting actual cut-ins early enough potentially resulting in later harsh braking. While the 66% improved precision should mean there was unnecessary braking for vehicles that weren't actually cutting in.

The other day I saw a message that I hadn't seen before: "Changing lanes away from neighboring vehicle." This might have been related to a false positive as the only vehicle nearby was solidly 2 lanes away in their own lane.
 
I had a really bad drive on 11.3.6 on Preston Rd in Plano, TX. First to get there car made several mapping based errors resulting in disengagements from lane errors. Then once on Preston (10 miles going straight without any turns) the car is extremely timid at times and reacting to many false-posirive cut-in events. It tried to change lanes quite abruptly and unnecessary and then slammed the brakes and the car behind me was not suspecting it and had to hard brake and honked at me. One of the first true AP/FSD safety related events that I've had on this build but pretty alarming. I saved the dashcam clip so I'll take a look at it later and upload it. I was close to being rear ended purely due to FSD which is scary. It happened suddenly so I disengaged but the immediate slow down was so unexpected it caught me off guard and I was worried I was too late. For reference I was on average and with minimal lane change on.
 
Even when you don't use AP/FSD ?
Only when on TACC or FSDb. No, I don't have PB issues when driving myself.

I drive a lot of very open rural highways. The car drives great in TACC or FSDb in the city, but on wide open rural highways, it's really bad. I think it's a combination of a couple things:

1. Not having a lead car to follow (the highways are pretty quiet);
2. Incorrect speed limits (it misreads or altogether misses most speed limit signs, so often thinks the limit is lower than it is).

I think when it sees a hill / mirage up ahead, with no lead car, and it thinks the car is already speeding well above the limit, it takes the cautious route and initiates braking. 75% of the time it's a slow-down, the other 25% of the time it's braking hard enough to cause items on the passenger seat beside me to be flung off the seat into the footwell. Once it plastered my entire takeout meal all over my passenger side footwell.

This is why I'm so adamant that I'd like an option to disable the "adaptive" part of TACC, and just have cruise - like my old '87 K Car did. On these wide open empty highways, it is all I'd need. But when conditions are right (or wrong?), I just can't use TACC at all, which means no cruise control at all, for long stretches of open highway.

It started when my radar was disabled in favour of Tesla Vision, I don't recall these issues prior to that. I do intend on doing a camera calibration soon. I'm waiting for the winter junk to be cleaned off the streets and for the annual line painting touch-up to ensure a good calibration.
 
- Improved recall for partial cut-ins by 39% and precision for false positive cut-ins due to lane changes into adjacent lanes by 66%, resulting in a 33% reduction in overall lane-changing prediction error.
Someone should do the math on this. To me it seems like there is a hidden category here (presumably false positives on cut-ins which are not due to lane changes into adjacent lanes…and perhaps there are other categories). Because overall reduction lowered by a bit less than the individual percentages…so no weighted average could work.

But maybe there is another way to interpret the numbers. Haven’t put a lot of thought into it. There are too many degrees of freedom to determine the weight of each case though.

I was close to being rear ended purely due to FSD which is scary. It happened suddenly so I disengaged but the immediate slow down was so unexpected it caught me off guard and I was worried I was too late.
Yep, disengage at the first sign of trouble and especially when other cars are around or close behind. FSD is quite dangerous to use with other traffic nearby. Can dramatically increase collision risk in certain cases - be careful in how to interpret the stats saying it reduces accident rates since that may not apply to your use scenario (your risk could go up, while overall risk goes down - or of course it is possible that FSD does not improve safety at all; hard to know without any data available - all we know is miles traveled with it are safer compared to other miles traveled without it, which tells us nothing).
 
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Even the latest version is just more Fantasy Uncertainty and Doubt. I don’t have time to babysit it when I’m on the highway because I’m trying to get somewhere and it is just slow to respond and foolish, especially if you’re familiar with the roads. When I do try to give it a try on local roads, it just fails miserably.
After four years, I have lost faith in the great carnival barker, Elon. He is a thief, no other way to justify his lies, it was not even wishful thinking.

No plan for getting it approved or how the liability will transfer once you are not 100% responsible for everything the car does.

It’s just marketing, you haven’t been railroaded, you’ve been roadstered!
 
I had a really bad drive on 11.3.6 on Preston Rd in Plano, TX. First to get there car made several mapping based errors resulting in disengagements from lane errors. Then once on Preston (10 miles going straight without any turns) the car is extremely timid at times and reacting to many false-posirive cut-in events. It tried to change lanes quite abruptly and unnecessary and then slammed the brakes and the car behind me was not suspecting it and had to hard brake and honked at me. One of the first true AP/FSD safety related events that I've had on this build but pretty alarming. I saved the dashcam clip so I'll take a look at it later and upload it. I was close to being rear ended purely due to FSD which is scary. It happened suddenly so I disengaged but the immediate slow down was so unexpected it caught me off guard and I was worried I was too late. For reference I was on average and with minimal lane change on.
I literally just drove Preston 5 mins ago. Went from Plano past 121 down to Main Street in Frisco. Was pretty smooth for me. I’m in a 2023 M3LR using average profile.
 
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Even the latest version is just more Fantasy Uncertainty and Doubt. I don’t have time to babysit it when I’m on the highway because I’m trying to get somewhere and it is just slow to respond and foolish, especially if you’re familiar with the roads. When I do try to give it a try on local roads, it just fails miserably.
After four years, I have lost faith in the great carnival barker, Elon. He is a thief, no other way to justify his lies, it was not even wishful thinking.

No plan for getting it approved or how the liability will transfer once you are not 100% responsible for everything the car does.

It’s just marketing, you haven’t been railroaded, you’ve been roadstered!
I feel like if FSD had a Trello board it would be like 1000 pages long of TODOs. Watch I bet you next year they'll start working hard on making roundabouts work properly for the first time. They just (for the first time), in 11.4, are shipping a model that attempts to drive at the proper speed for road conditions and weather. You know, just basic stuff like driving at an acceptable speed. Maybe one day it'll handle school zones, or interpret per-lane navigational signs instead of using map data.

I'm not trying to hate on the pace of progress or say the AP team is bad, it's just that Elon has to be aware of these things. It's great stuff taken on its own, one of the coolest software products out there, and I like being able to follow along and test out changes personally, it's just how Elon represents the state of FSD. If anyone works on AP reads this, you guys are awesome, please do an AMA.

When there is a new build I'm super excited to try it out. When my iPhone gets a new update it's the most boring time on earth, maybe some new emoji were added this time, I couldn't tell? These guys at Tesla are solving actual problems and we get to experience the progress in near real-time. But Elon does such a disservice to everyone working on it by massively misrepresenting the current state of the thing, like the fact they were talking to investors about robotaxis years ago and how your Tesla is going to appreciate to $500k because it will soon become a taxi driving 24/7 for you. He has to have seen the backlog for this thing, he sits in the weekly meetings, give me a break. I expect him to be a cheerleader, that is kind of his job, but man it's just too much, too long.
 
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I think when it sees a hill / mirage up ahead, with no lead car
I ran into this on version 10, but not 11. I have a two lane road with a series of low rolling hills, and FSDb would brake pretty hard at the crest of each hill. A lead car or oncoming traffic would be enough for the car to know that the world didn't suddenly vanish beyond the crest.
 
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I was excited to talk about the v11.4 release notes, but most of that got buried in the discussion about issues with v11.3.6 (even those issues directly addressed by the 11.4 release notes).
Agreed, I think we've identified the main issues with 11.3.6. Now that there are fixes on the way which Tesla appears to have acknowledged and addressed in 11.4 I'm focused on when will it be released outside of the employee realm. I'm guessing it will be within a week, two at the most, based on how quickly updates have been flowing recently. As someone else mentioned, exciting times! :D
 
Agreed, I think we've identified the main issues with 11.3.6. Now that there are fixes on the way which Tesla appears to have acknowledged and addressed in 11.4 I'm focused on when will it be released outside of the employee realm. I'm guessing it will be within a week, two at the most, based on how quickly updates have been flowing recently. As someone else mentioned, exciting times! :D
Yes, and they are probably taking away the voice notes button because their HR department heard or read some of the responses and saw a lawsuit coming from people complaining about a hostile work environment 🙄!
 
Looks like Tesla not-FSD-Beta software has achieved another merging milestone with 2023.12.1 Official Tesla Software Update | Teslascope going both to vehicles with HW4 (2023.6.11.2) and older (2023.6.11). (Previously HW4 vehicles were on their own factory software versions like 2023.2.301 or own production software 2023.6.11.x.)

Although that puts these vehicles ahead of 11.4 / 2023.6.15, so maybe there will be a 11.4.1 that bumps it up to 2023.12.x?
 
Purely due to a tailgating and/or distracted motorist, actually.
No, I agree totally with Alan above that, right now (11.3.6), using FSD with traffic at all nearby to my rear is inviting my getting rear-ended, and it would not be the fault of the person behind me. I actually won't use it off the highway with traffic behind me, and since a recent incident ON the highway where it seemed I was the one heading toward rear-ending some slowing traffic in front of me (I disengaged before finding out if that was going to be my fate), I wouldn't even use it on the highway unless I'm willing to remain ultra-vigilant. As it's hard to remain that vigilant for a long time, I just don't use it much. I test each new version until it does something I'm not willing to have it do on a frequent basis. That usually doesn't take long.