FSD Beta v11.x

Mardak · Apr 19, 2023

AlanSubie4Life said:
Someone should do the math on this. To me it seems like there is a hidden category here

I believe we're missing out on True Negatives from the first 2 improvement numbers (recall & precision) and assuming the before/after comparison did not change the Total number of examples (e.g., some of the 80k added clips were included in the baseline).

Recall = True Positive / (True Positive + False Negative)
Precision = True Positive / (True Positive + False Positive)
Error = (False Positive + False Negative) / (Total = TP + TN + FP + FN)

This is very much dependent on the number of each of the 4 possible outcomes in Tesla's mix of examples in their training vs evaluation set.

EVNow · Apr 19, 2023

JHCCAZ said:
In Bangalore, I was scared to cross the street. You see old ladies walk right through the moving traffic and it just kind of flows around them.

I guess it works most of the time but you'd better not hesitate. The drivers are extrapolating the pedestrian path for planning, but they certainly aren't considering "multiple VRU futures" even though I sure was!

This is how I described the "method" earlier.

EVNow said:
Looks easier than the one near my home (in India) Basic idea is - go slow and occupy the space first. That gives you the right of way (atleast for a few feet). Also, first few feet to the side are reserved for vehicles driving the wrong way.

Actually the best way to think about it is - its like a slightly faster parking lot.

BTW, I should say ... after all these years, I feel scared to drive in India. Somehow I wasn't scared to cross the road .... probably in the "genes"

EVNow · Apr 19, 2023

willow_hiller said:
-Improved lane guidance module to feed in long range routing "hints" to the network for which lanes ego needs to be in to reach its destination. Also significantly improved per-lane routing type autolabeler. These changes combined resolved 64% of all interventions caused by bad routing type.

I think now (finally !) Tesla is working on planner issues specifically - and probably in general issues that result in interventions. Thats a good thing. Hopefully they can start addressing the most annoying items on a weekly basis.

AFAIK, this is the first time they have actually mentioned reducing interventions by a certain %.

Mardak · Apr 19, 2023

FSD Beta 11.3.x only really started going wider the last few weeks of March, but including highway driving seems to have already increased the monthly FSD Beta mileage rate by 25% now up to 16M miles/month. The wide release to 400k vehicles including those who did not proactively opt-in had a smaller boost of around 5% bump in January compared to October's previous high. Here's a graph that I estimated from their 2023Q1 report:

JB47394 · Apr 19, 2023

JB47394 said:
I ran into this on version 10, but not 11. I have a two lane road with a series of low rolling hills, and FSDb would brake pretty hard at the crest of each hill. A lead car or oncoming traffic would be enough for the car to know that the world didn't suddenly vanish beyond the crest.

I have to amend this a bit as 11 is still giving me hesitation and sometimes just plain braking when reaching the crest of small hills. I had one instance of dropping from 40 to 33 mph.

Dennisis · Apr 19, 2023

JB47394 said:
I have to amend this a bit as 11 is still giving me hesitation and sometimes just plain braking when reaching the crest of small hills. I had one instance of dropping from 40 to 33 mph.

Yes, I've experienced this too. More like a slight hesitation while cresting a rise as the car peers over the peak, usually only 2-3 mph.
(@JHCCAZ - traveling River Rd. between Swan and Sabino Canyon)

KLam · Apr 19, 2023

Dennisis said:
Yes, I've experienced this too. More like a slight hesitation while cresting a rise as the car peers over the peak, usually only 2-3 mph.
(@JHCCAZ - traveling River Rd. between Swan and Sabino Canyon)

I would consider this as a plus for safety. We know the car's forward camera is situated high on the windshield. If the camera can't see what is ahead over the hill, I am sure the driver, unless tall with his head touching the roof, can't see also.

GSP · Apr 19, 2023

"I hesitate to say this, but I think we will achieve autonomous driving this year" - You know who 5:55 pm EDT 19April2023

powertoold · Apr 19, 2023

GSP said:
"I hesitate to say this, but I think we will achieve autonomous driving this year" - You know who 5:55 pm EDT 19April2023

Elon still believes HW3 will enable a level 4 feature.

Elon still believes HW3 can become a robotaxi.

I don't see it (because my threshold for robotaxi is 5x+ human safety), but it'd be nice

kabin · Apr 19, 2023

powertoold said:
Elon still believes HW3 will enable a level 4 feature.

Elon still believes HW3 can become a robotaxi.

I don't see it (because my threshold for robotaxi is 5x+ human safety), but it'd be nice

How can one tell when EM is full of $#^? Maybe whenever he talks about FSD?

kabin · Apr 19, 2023

GSP said:
"I hesitate to say this, but I think we will achieve autonomous driving this year" - You know who 5:55 pm EDT 19April2023

It's the obligatory annual FSD rite of passage.

kabin · Apr 19, 2023

And EM's response about FSD take-rate and possibly lowering FSD pricing made zero sense. Of course they won't let those dirty secrets out.

Ramphex · Apr 19, 2023

We are our own demise on its price. We allow them to milk us by buying the overpriced junk, even after several price hikes.

jebinc · Apr 19, 2023

Ramphex said:
It reminds you that you’re…. a beta?

Does that may you and me “the Alpha”?!

jebinc · Apr 19, 2023

JHCCAZ said:
In Bangalore, I was scared to cross the street. You see old ladies walk right through the moving traffic and it just kind of flows around them.

I guess it works most of the time but you'd better not hesitate. The drivers are extrapolating the pedestrian path for planning, but they certainly aren't considering "multiple VRU futures" even though I sure was!

Try to avoid the holes in the ground as well….

Ramphex · Apr 19, 2023

jebinc said:
Try to avoid the holes in the ground as well….

And in the walls of bathroom dividers

Genie · Apr 19, 2023

KLam said:
I would consider this as a plus for safety. We know the car's forward camera is situated high on the windshield. If the camera can't see what is ahead over the hill, I am sure the driver, unless tall with his head touching the roof, can't see also.

I consider this a safety hazard. MX suddenly slows from low 60’s-low 50’s with no traffic or other reason, maybe the turn signal starts and the car lunges to the right (OK that’s better than to the left), or maybe it doesn’t.
So far this is happening to me on county and state hiways without a lot of traffic. It worked well on I-5 in traffic today, then on WA525 had erratic moves.
I am using it a lot, but that means disengaging it a lot -for safety.

jebinc · Apr 19, 2023

kabin said:
How can one tell when EM is full of $#^? Maybe whenever he talks about FSD?

No, put the period after “talks”! That covers it.

Dewg · Apr 19, 2023

Ramphex said:
We are our own demise on its price. We allow them to milk us by buying the overpriced junk, even after several price hikes.

Yeah, you really should stop doing that.

Joboo7777 · Apr 19, 2023

Porkalletta said:
Were you also using minimal lane change? I seem to have more issues if I have that activated.

For that ride I did not.

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