FSD Beta v11.x

willow_hiller · Dec 15, 2022

Just watching MKBHD's review of FSD Beta now (link for those who haven't seen it, yet). It makes me realize that V11 may be safer than 10.69 just from a user-expectation/user-error perspective.

At several points during the video, he confuses FSD Beta and NOA; expecting his FSD settings to apply to NOA, and expecting NOA to recognize and avoid obstacles like FSD. As well-informed consumers, we know that FSD Beta switches over to NOA on highways, but the average user may not know that.

Mardak · Dec 15, 2022

RickyFish89 said:
with the massive caveat that it was only available to people that hadn't updated their cars to 2022.40 yet

Looks like the current rollout of FSD Beta 10.69.3.3 is different from previous rollouts with seemingly new testers added at the same time that early access / pre-Safety-Score group got it. Notably so far TeslaFi shows about half of the updates to 2022.40.4.10 are not existing testers with at least 1 so far updating from 2022.40.4.1. Somewhat expected that this new version of FSD Beta will include people who updated their cars to 2022.40 for an even wider release.

RickyFish89 said:
a 2-part holiday update with v11 coming in part 2

At least so far those in FSD Beta group haven't gotten Holiday Update Part 1, and given the different rollout behavior of FSD Beta 10.69.3.3, maybe Tesla is intentionally testing something in preparation for a Part 2. This could include FSD Beta 11's single stack and eventually go to all those who already received Part 1 as well as those with FSD Beta basically combining the two software tracks for most of us.

Mardak · Dec 15, 2022

willow_hiller said:
As well-informed consumers, we know that FSD Beta switches over to NOA on highways, but the average user may not know that

Yeah, the main indication right now is FSD Beta stack shows red lines for for curbs and road edges as well as yellow lines whereas NoA shows gray lines. Adding to the confusion is a situation like this where FSD Beta is still active during this onramp / merge:

But actually driving on this highway soon switched over to NoA which was "limited" / failed to take the exit due to construction, but single stack probably would have taken it just fine. This specific situation where he got honked at is also a good example of highway-prioritized changes being addressed with FSD Beta 11 where it's not as appropriate to just slow down:

Improved lane changes to allow higher jerk maneuvers if required to stay on-route or to move away from lane blockages.
Improved merging behavior by leveraging lane geometry and lane bounds, association with coarse map information and better gap selection algorithms, allowing for smoother and safer experience.

Mardak · Dec 16, 2022

JulienW said:
Time has just run out for the roll out of V11 before Christmas Eve

Looks like they're still aiming for potentially before Christmas Eve / Saturday December 24th / end of next week:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603644625134448641

Unclear if that means FSD Beta 11 to early access or wider for Safety Score group or integrated into a production build for everyone that probably wouldn't explicitly be called "FSD Beta 11" anymore. And as most of us here probably know, this could turn out like many of the previous date predictions about FSD Beta 11.

sleepydoc · Dec 16, 2022

Mardak said:
Looks like they're still aiming for potentially before Christmas Eve / Saturday December 24th / end of next week:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603644625134448641

Unclear if that means FSD Beta 11 to early access or wider for Safety Score group or integrated into a production build for everyone that probably wouldn't explicitly be called "FSD Beta 11" anymore. And as most of us here probably know, this could turn out like many of the previous date predictions about FSD Beta 11.

'Next week' is pretty much Elon's standard answer for everything.

VanFriscia · Dec 16, 2022

sleepydoc said:
'Next week' is pretty much Elon's standard answer for everything.

Nah, he's much more likely to say two weeks vs. one. By that logic, we should expect it to come in half the usual time, so if 2 weeks = 2 months, then next week might = 1 month

RickyFish89 · Dec 16, 2022

yeah it's cool to set goals, but I'm going to go ahead and not put any faith in it at this point. So far for v11 we've heard 'Before Thanksgiving', then 'still on for Before thanksgiving' (said on the day before thanksgiving), then on dec 5 it was 'next week or so', now on dec 15 it's 'next week' again. We've been between 1 day and 1 week for ~5 weeks now. I'll gladly use it when it comes, but I'm not going to place any bets that I'll be using it by christmas, or even new years.

JulienW · Dec 16, 2022

RickyFish89 said:
yeah it's cool to set goals, but I'm going to go ahead and not put any faith in it at this point. So far for v11 we've heard 'Before Thanksgiving', then 'still on for Before thanksgiving' (said on the day before thanksgiving), then on dec 5 it was 'next week or so', now on dec 15 it's 'next week' again. We've been between 1 day and 1 week for ~5 weeks now. I'll gladly use it when it comes, but I'm not going to place any bets that I'll be using it by christmas, or even new years.

Don't forget it ALREADY "rolled out " on 11/11 at 11PM.

Then I guess it was recalled.

Mardak · Dec 16, 2022

JulienW said:
Don't forget it ALREADY "rolled out " on 11/11 at 11PM. Then I guess it was recalled.

In case you weren't sure, FSD Beta 11 did go out to some employee vehicles on 11/11 11:11pm pacific time:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591327799469801475

It's an automated message when their service detects a new version. It shows no current vehicles as Tesla is more strictly enforcing their NDAs for this special release, and Teslascope allows its users to hide vehicle software status, which it seems like this vehicle enabled after the fact after being reminded about the NDA.

There might have been additional updates since this 2022.40.5 to this subset of stricter-NDA employees, but at least so far, we haven't had leaks of those. Potentially with all this secrecy, we won't hear anything else about the progress of FSD Beta 11 until it goes to wide release as part of Holiday Update Part 2.

Supcom · Dec 16, 2022

It's possible that the current plan is to roll out FSD beta 11.x to all cars that are in, or requested, FSD beta and 10.69.3.3 to the rest of the FSD cars. This gives time for wide scale testing of FSDb 11.x before rolling out to the entire FSD fleet, yet still allows Tesla to achieve the goal of delivering FSDb to everyone by end of year.

This would require merging 10.69.3.3 into the holiday update. Hopefully, 11.x will as well so we all get caught up.

Scott Chapman · Dec 16, 2022

FWIW - saw this (though I think it is still just speculation)

JulienW · Dec 16, 2022

Scott Chapman said:
FWIW - saw this (though I think it is still just speculation)

That is just an article about Elon's latest "Next Week" V11 Tweet. There is nothing new or relevant in it that hasn't been discussed to death in this and other threads.

Gbills · Dec 18, 2022

JulienW said:
That is just an article about Elon's latest "Next Week" V11 Tweet. There is nothing new or relevant in it that hasn't been discussed to death in this and other threads.

View attachment 885899

I think all versions will be funneled into one. Remember you have to opt into FSDb ( not everyone wants to be a tester)
The beta version is definitely not for everyone.

Scott Chapman · Dec 18, 2022

I am seeing a bunch of folks getting 40.4.10 (FSDb 69.3.3) and not to 40.5 (FSDb V11). Which makes me think that they think the FSDb needs more testing before the merge. I don't know why they would be doing that if the plan was to roll out V11 next week. But what do I know?

Gbills · Dec 18, 2022

Scott Chapman said:
I am seeing a bunch of folks getting 40.4.10 (FSDb 69.3.3) and not to 40.5 (FSDb V11). Which makes me think that they think the FSDb needs more testing before the merge. I don't know why they would be doing that if the plan was to roll out V11 next week. But what do I know?

I just got my first taste of FSDb 2022.40.4.10. There still is work to be done before a wider release. Just my opinion.

wtwieder · Dec 18, 2022

Scott Chapman said:
I am seeing a bunch of folks getting 40.4.10 (FSDb 69.3.3) and not to 40.5 (FSDb V11). Which makes me think that they think the FSDb needs more testing before the merge. I don't know why they would be doing that if the plan was to roll out V11 next week. But what do I know?

I just got 40.4.10. Although it contains the 69.3.3 FSD Beta, I see none of the features promised for the holiday release, such as auto signal cancel after lane changes. Why this update, if the Christmas update or V11 is to come out next week. I am guessing the Christmas party is going to be late this year.

Gbills · Dec 18, 2022

wtwieder said:
I just got 40.4.10. Although it contains the 69.3.3 FSD Beta, I see none of the features promised for the holiday release, such as auto signal cancel after lane changes. Why this update, if the Christmas update or V11 is to come out next week. I am guessing the Christmas party is going to be late this year.

The Xmas party looks to be three fold.
I got my present after 4 years 11 months FSDb (v10).
Some get the Xmas update without v11
Last and a little later is Xmas update with v11.
Everyone is different, which present will make you happy?

Supcom · Dec 18, 2022

I

wtwieder said:
I just got 40.4.10. Although it contains the 69.3.3 FSD Beta, I see none of the features promised for the holiday release, such as auto signal cancel after lane changes. Why this update, if the Christmas update or V11 is to come out next week. I am guessing the Christmas party is going to be late this year.

FSDb 11.x is not going to be released widely next week. There is not enough time to do a staged release. At best, 11.x may start a slow rollout, like what we've seen with 10.69.3.3, with employees getting it, followed by a limited public rollout followed by widespread rollout. Assuming that there are no major issues found in the early rollouts, 11.x might go to everyone just before New Years. But, more likely, there will be issue that require more work. I see this as a low probability.

FSDb 10.69.3.3 is likely to go out to all FSDb testers in the next day or two. If, as I expect, 11.x falls flat, then 10.69.3.3 will probably be rolled into something like 2022.44.25.3 and rolled out to all FSD cars.

This gives Tesla two shots at delivering FSDb to everyone by the end of the year.

gtg465x · Dec 18, 2022

I assume that if I’m on 2022.40.200, I can’t update to 2022.40.4.10, and will likely have to wait until FSDb gets to at least 2022.44.X before I’ll be able to get on it? Are the .200, .300 etc builds ones that are only installed from the factory? Seems like very few people have these versions, and the numbering format seems a bit different than the normal version numbers everyone is talking about.

JulienW · Dec 19, 2022

gtg465x said:
I assume that if I’m on 2022.40.200, I can’t update to 2022.40.4.10, and will likely have to wait until FSDb gets to at least 2022.44.X before I’ll be able to get on it? Are the .200, .300 etc builds ones that are only installed from the factory? Seems like very few people have these versions, and the numbering format seems a bit different than the normal version numbers everyone is talking about.

x.100's are factory installed and only on new cars. It can take from a few days to several weeks before you get your first update. When it is offered just make sure its is not a higher version number than Beta is at the time. Could be by then that they are the same but no one knows.

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