FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[willow_hiller]

Given Teslascope's track record, this could be V11 related:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604778313934700545

 

[Mardak]

Given Teslascope's track record, this could be V11 related

FSD related but "bigger than 11" with a photo, so I guess something visualized showing upcoming features that depend on FSD Beta 11's capabilities being even safer and more polished closer to robotaxi?

 

[willow_hiller]

FSD related but "bigger than 11" with a photo, so I guess something visualized showing upcoming features that depend on FSD Beta 11's capabilities being even safer and more polished closer to robotaxi?

Turns out it's single stack (V11?) in the UK:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604929635837284352

 

[tivoboy]

Turns out it's single stack (V11?) in the UK:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604929635837284352

I wouldn’t have picked that on the FSDb V11 EM bingo game.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Turns out it's single stack (V11?) in the UK:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604929635837284352

Whoa!! So perhaps I (and other Brits) will not have to wait the usual 18 months to 2 years after the US to get hands on FSDb V11. That would make a pleasant change

 

[Mardak]

I assume that if I’m on 2022.40.200, I can’t update to 2022.40.4.10, and will likely have to wait until FSDb gets to at least 2022.44.X before I’ll be able to get on it?

Probably will need to wait. At least just now, it seems like those on factory software 2022.40.200 are getting maybe the holiday update 2022.44.30 still without FSD Beta 11?

TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker

www.teslafi.com

2022.44.30 Official Tesla Software Update - Teslascope

The release notes and other metrics for the Tesla software update, 2022.44.30.

teslascope.com

So potentially you can update to 2022.44.30 then an even newer production vehicle software that might include FSD Beta 11 as a Holiday Update Part 2.

 

[MP3Mike]

So potentially you can update to 2022.44.30 then an even newer production vehicle software that might include FSD Beta 11 as a Holiday Update Part 2.

Nobody, outside of Tesla employees, has gotten FSD Beta 11 yet, so we have no idea what version it will come as. (We don't even know for sure that it will come as part of a 2022 Holiday update.)

 

[swedge]

I guess this theoretically means the UK will get V11 eventually as well, at least!

Maybe this is why 10.69 has had so much trouble choosing lanes: it keeps getting left and right confused, just like us when we visit UK.

Kidding, of course. Sorry.

SW

 

[Supcom]

Maybe this is why 10.69 has had so much trouble choosing lanes: it keeps getting left and right confused, just like us when we visit UK.

Kidding, of course. Sorry.

SW

I certainly hope that roundabouts work better for them than they do on the left side of the pond.

 

[Gbills]

Probably will need to wait. At least just now, it seems like those on factory software 2022.40.200 are getting maybe the holiday update 2022.44.30 still without FSD Beta 11?

TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker

www.teslafi.com

2022.44.30 Official Tesla Software Update - Teslascope

The release notes and other metrics for the Tesla software update, 2022.44.30.

teslascope.com

So potentially you can update to 2022.44.30 then an even newer production vehicle software that might include FSD Beta 11 as a Holiday Update

You are taking a chance the more you update non FSDb software. it’ll take FSDb V11 longer to catch you. But no one really knows. With the news today Tesla can give V11 any number they want.

 

[Mardak]

So potentially you can update to 2022.44.30 then an even newer production vehicle software that might include FSD Beta 11

Well... Now with 2022.44.25.5 going out to existing FSD Beta, probably hold off on updating up 2022.44.30.

TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker

www.teslafi.com

Might even include FSD Beta 11!?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604994368829390853

 

[Mardak]

Turns out 2022.44.25.5 is FSD Beta 10.69.25 probably the same as 10.69.3.3 / 2022.40.4.10 but merged to the production holiday update 2022.44.25.x potentially with no FSD Beta related changes. I suppose there's all of next week before New Years to see if Tesla will achieve wide release with FSD Beta 11's single stack in 2022.

 

[powertoold]

Single stack is probably the most delayed software feature of all time. It's possible Tesla may never get there with HW3, lol, just my pessimism considering the delay..... knock on wood.

 

[Supcom]

Turns out 2022.44.25.5 is FSD Beta 10.69.25 probably the same as 10.69.3.3 / 2022.40.4.10 but merged to the production holiday update 2022.44.25.x potentially with no FSD Beta related changes. I suppose there's all of next week before New Years to see if Tesla will achieve wide release with FSD Beta 11's single stack in 2022.

If V11 was anywhere close to a wide release, I expect we would see beta testers getting it as part of the holiday update. The fact that Tesla has packaged a 10.69 version in the holiday update shows that V11 is not ready for even beta testers. Rumor has it that the employees testing v11 have been merged back into the 10.69 branch for the holiday update as well. If true, it's a really bad sign for V11. If V11 was anywhere close to being ready for the public, Tesla would have surely built a V11 into the holiday update and kept the employee group testing it.

I was hoping beta testers would see some V11 software next week. But, at this point, I'm thinking not until next year. The only thing that remains to be seen is whether Tesla will release V10 to all FSD cars before New Years.

 

[Mardak]

Rumor has it that the employees testing v11 have been merged back into the 10.69 branch for the holiday update as well

Where did you see that? Or was that part of the confusion leading to people thinking 2022.44.25.5 included FSD Beta 11 because presumably if the smaller employee group on 2022.40.5 was getting this update, they wouldn't be going back to 10.69.x?

At least from TeslaFi and Teslascope websites, there doesn't seem to be any indication of FSD Beta 11 updates of 2022.40.5 or later.

One potential reason for these 10.69.3.3 / 2022.40.4.10 and 10.69.25 / 2022.44.25.5 releases is to ensure FSD Beta works correctly when merged to newer production vehicle software. This cautious slowness in merging to a newer production release might have come from 10.3 / 2021.36.5.2 introducing new FSD Beta code at the same time as merging with 2021.36.x from 10.2 / 2021.32.25 resulting in unexpected conflicts in some production sentry behavior and FSD Beta optimizations with the false automatic emergency braking symptoms.

Having employees test out FSD Beta on 2022.40.x then 2022.44.x helps find these potential regressions before rolling out to early access and new testers, and that should reduce some risk in directly merging FSD Beta 11 to the holiday update. Yes, there can also be new regressions when merging in single stack, but merging and deploying newer FSD Beta 10.69.x can actually speed up the eventual deployment of single stack in production especially if the changes are "just" dropping in the latest trained neural networks without changing internal APIs along with the stricter NDA group already testing.

 

[Supcom]

There is no reason to keep the two employee test groups split. V11 is obviously not going to make the holiday update. The split was created to have a plan B with 10.69.3.3 in their back pocket once a drop dead date passed for V11. That has obviously happened and we see the new 2022.44.25.5 release candidate with 10.69.3.3 rolling to employees. There's no sign of a new V11 and hasn't been since the early November initial release.

There was one Teslafi installation of V11 and one installation of 10.69.3.3 a few days ago. But now there's two cars in line for 2022.44.25.5. One of them came from 2022.40.10. The other has yet to install, but it would seem likely that this car is coming from 2022.40.5 (V11). We should see soon, I hope.

Since there doesn't appear to be a V11 variant of 2022.44.25, it makes sense to push the holiday update to all employees in 2022.44.25.5. Then, when the next V11 comes out, all employee cars (and FSDb testers eventually) will get that version. And hopefully, we will say good bye, and good riddance, to V10.

This is much speculation on my part, I admit. But I think it makes sense given the lack of V11 releases going to employees or, certainly, beta testers.

 

[Mardak]

But now there's two cars in line for 2022.44.25.5. One of them came from 2022.40.10. The other has yet to install, but it would seem likely that this car is coming from 2022.40.5 (V11)

It's the "employee" vehicle that typically doesn't install FSD Beta updates right away. It's currently on 10.69.3.3:

Earlier there were 3 of these vehicles pending 2022.44.25.5. One has updated from 10.69.3.3 and another / above is pending. The third now shows odometer 0 when I view it directly, so maybe they turned off the service?

 

[powertoold]

I wish we could get some more clarity about what is holding V11 back. It seems the auto labeling for highway should be substantially simpler than city streets.

Also, Elon has basically been saying that much of V11's architecture has already been deployed to .69, and the main difference is that V11 enables highway fsdb...

My hypothesis is that Tesla has been having trouble balancing the NN performance for highway and city streets to fit in HW3's flops. As they boost highway performance, city streets takes a hit and vice versa.

 

[Mardak]

I wish we could get some more clarity about what is holding V11 back. It seems the auto labeling for highway should be substantially simpler than city streets.

That would be nice, but would it be any better if the reason was that they wanted to keep FSD Beta 11 "back" as a holiday surprise? I suppose maybe a little bit as ideally that means it's ready and just waiting for the right time.

If there are remaining issues, the broad types of problems are probably related to how some city streets driving behaviors might not be comfortable at highway speeds. The FSD Beta 11 release notes so far seem to focus on those types of issues, but for those who have been using FSD Beta, think of something it unnecessarily did at say 20mph and imagine it happening when driving at 4x the speed. "It's kind of sloppy, but it works…"

Autolabeling could help for some of these issues if they were caused by false positives thus needing to improve precision. But this needs to be balanced by making sure the networks don't get worse with false negatives and worse recall.

 

[Scott Chapman]

Yea, I just don't see a ton of evidence that FSDb has been tested much at all on the highway. So, I have a hard time believing that we'll see V11 any time soon.

I think further evidence is that 10.69.25 (>= 10.69.3.3?) appeared in the holiday release stack.