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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Took 11.4.3 out for the usual first test route to the Grocery store. Details of that experience can be found here.

 
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The solution is for FSD to just use Apple Maps. It’s way more accurate and provides significantly better routing than the idiotic Tesla nav. Tesla frequently prefers unprotected lefts over protected turns to save one minute on the drive. Apple Maps also has much more accurate and up to date lane data. Tesla uses Google maps somewhat I think because I can replicate much of the route failures there. Seems like the tables have turned since Apple Maps was first released.
Interesting, I'm not an Apple Maps user but it's good to hear that it's come so far since its introduction; I remember reading about it and basically getting the idea that it was a bit weak.

It seems like various commercial and open-source maps have their strengths and weaknesses, and there's been a lot of discussion about what provider Tesla uses for what pieces of the map / nav puzzle.

The rumor is that Tesla has a renewed focus on building their own map database, which makes sense but didn't seem to be happening for a long time. Also, I'd guess that the solution will be somewhat different in different regions, for both commercial and legal reasons. For example, I don't know but it seems like map data gathering may be a very sensitive issue in China. I think Tesla was dragged into discussions with the CCP over what is done with its camera data when driving around over there, and whether the data would be shipped back here.
 
For those who know, what actually gets updated with these updates? In my short time using FSDb I noticed that silent or map updates change the behavior on the roads, so is it just a ton of driving data to help make decisions/pathfinding better?
the software and the map data are separate updates. I've noticed and commented in the past how the behavior of an update seems to evolve a bit. The most likely explanation is due to updated map data. The thing is you're not notified or necessarily aware when a map update occurs so you're left a bit confused as to why the behavior of FSDb has changed. It's also unclear exactly what data is included and used with the map data. Clearly it's more than just roads but beyond that, ?
 
the software and the map data are separate updates. I've noticed and commented in the past how the behavior of an update seems to evolve a bit. The most likely explanation is due to updated map data. The thing is you're not notified or necessarily aware when a map update occurs so you're left a bit confused as to why the behavior of FSDb has changed. It's also unclear exactly what data is included and used with the map data. Clearly it's more than just roads but beyond that, ?
I’m certain about the sudden changes due to map updates since my S started doing the correct behavior on highway merge points out of the blue. I posted a video a few pages back, but it suddenly started stopping at signs and merging differently with no FSDb update.
 
Robotaxi? When? Not for me.

1. When running low on juice. Self drive to a charge station? Wait in line? Plug itself in?
2. Do correct customer cc processing? (Need car upgrade for computer to process this)? Drive to next customer?
3. Oops customer had a spill, got sick or some other mishap. Self drive to an automatic cleaning station before next customer drive? Or to you for manual clean up?
4. Needs a wash and vacuum. Drive to you for cleaning or go to Robo car wash and vac? (Car rentals do it after every rental).
5. Flat tire? You or Robo fixer?
6. How to limit where it goes or or doesn't get stuck in rush hour so you get the car back for your own use?
7. What if it's stuck in extended traffic delay anyway? Do you call a different Robo?
8. Things I haven't thought of?

I may be completely wrong but I see corporate rentals buying and using them with non-drivers. Do we really think we, in our lifetime, will personally make money here? The best expected use I saw was from a post a while ago. An elderly couple said they would use their car as a Robotaxi because they weren't able to drive anymore and would send it to pick up their granddaughter.

How many of you will put your nice car up for commercial Robo?

Your thoughts?
 
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I’m certain about the sudden changes due to map updates since my S started doing the correct behavior on highway merge points out of the blue. I posted a video a few pages back, but it suddenly started stopping at signs and merging differently with no FSDb update.
We do get some Map Data deltas that are invisible updates.

Dirty Tesla has a good drive around Ann Arbor including some tough construction routing. This morning I had a construction failure but it was a lot more complex on a wider and busier road.



 
The solution is for FSD to just use Apple Maps. It’s way more accurate and provides significantly better routing than the idiotic Tesla nav.
I don't think it is as cut and dry - depending on the location one or the other might be better. They all have issues - which users can ask for correction.

Tesla should start similar correction feature for Tesla drivers - considering how important the map information is for FSDb.

 
Robotaxi? When? Not for me.

1. When running low on juice. Self drive to a charge station? Wait in line? Plug itself in? Do correct customer cc processing? (Need car upgrade for computer to process this)? Drive to next customer?

...what?

Why would it ever need to process a customer credit card?

Superchargers bill to the car owner- and you wouldn't be stopping to charge with a customer in the car unless he's taking an insanely long trip.

As to plugging in there's 2 options:

Wireless DCFC exists, and is surprisingly efficient- Tesla could begin installing these in areas most likely to benefit from robotaxis.
or
Tesla robot plugs/unplugs the cars.

And also addresses your concerns 2 and 3 about dealing with cleaning the car while charging.

The robot being able to do these seems more likely then an L5 robotaxi so if you accept the later existing the former is easy.


4. Flat tire? You or Robo fixer?

Neither. Tesla roadside, just like today. The car knows it has a flat, and can contact roadside itself.

It can even summon a different robotaxi to complete the customers trip if you have a customer when it happens.



5. How to limit where it goes or or doesn't get stuck in rush hour so you get the car back for your own use?

Again-- what?

Why do you care where it goes? Are you thinking you'll tell it it's ok to pick up new fares until 5 minutes before you need the car or something?


6. What if it's stuck in extended traffic delay anyway? Do you call a different Robo?

and again... what?

How would that help? The new taxi would be stuck in the same traffic.

You seem to be really overthinking this in weird ways.



I may be completely wrong but I see corporate rentals buying and using them with non-drivers. Do we really think we, in our lifetime, will personally make money here?

If you believe Tesla will have functional L5 in your lifetime, then yes I don't see how you could NOT believe you could make money from it.


It's that first part a lot of folks have trouble believing.

How many of you will put your nice car up for commercial Robo?

Your thoughts?


TONS of people ALREADY use Teslas for Uber with lots of passengers.

Or Turo with complete strangers driving their nice cars.
 
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Interesting, I'm not an Apple Maps user but it's good to hear that it's come so far since its introduction; I remember reading about it and basically getting the idea that it was a bit weak.

It seems like various commercial and open-source maps have their strengths and weaknesses, and there's been a lot of discussion about what provider Tesla uses for what pieces of the map / nav puzzle.

The rumor is that Tesla has a renewed focus on building their own map database, which makes sense but didn't seem to be happening for a long time. Also, I'd guess that the solution will be somewhat different in different regions, for both commercial and legal reasons. For example, I don't know but it seems like map data gathering may be a very sensitive issue in China. I think Tesla was dragged into discussions with the CCP over what is done with its camera data when driving around over there, and whether the data would be shipped back here.
Recently it's been a tossup between Apple Maps and Tesla, IME. One big difference to keep in mind is that the Tesla mapping data includes far more than just the route so you can't simply substitute one for the other.

something I've wondered about for a while is when Tesla is going to monetize the roving band of traffic monitors (i.e. Teslas) they have constantly surveying the streets.
 
Robotaxi? When? Not for me.

6. How to limit where it goes or or doesn't get stuck in rush hour so you get the car back for your own use?
7. What if it's stuck in extended traffic delay anyway? Do you call a different Robo?

Your thoughts?
No worries. Your robotaxis will be available at your whim. It's said SpaceX is working on joint robotaxis project with ejection seats for pin point landing into an adjacent available robotaxis. It'll be seamless and if not no worries as the rider is a replaceable pawn that already signed a waiver. :)
 
Robotaxi? When? Not for me.

1. When running low on juice. Self drive to a charge station? Wait in line? Plug itself in?
2. Do correct customer cc processing? (Need car upgrade for computer to process this)? Drive to next customer?
3. Oops customer had a spill, got sick or some other mishap. Self drive to an automatic cleaning station before next customer drive? Or to you for manual clean up?
4. Needs a wash and vacuum. Drive to you for cleaning or go to Robo car wash and vac? (Car rentals do it after every rental).
5. Flat tire? You or Robo fixer?
6. How to limit where it goes or or doesn't get stuck in rush hour so you get the car back for your own use?
7. What if it's stuck in extended traffic delay anyway? Do you call a different Robo?
8. Things I haven't thought of?

I may be completely wrong but I see corporate rentals buying and using them with non-drivers. Do we really think we, in our lifetime, will personally make money here? The best expected use I saw was from a post a while ago. An elderly couple said they would use their car as a Robotaxi because they weren't able to drive anymore and would send it to pick up their granddaughter.

How many of you will put your nice car up for commercial Robo?

Your thoughts?

I'd be happy to own and rent out an AV as a way to offset the cost of the AV as long as the AV weren't _too_ expensive.
But I wouldn't want to do it as a business.

I do feel like that we need to write AUTONOMOUS vehicle sometimes because people don't really, really, really get the implications.
 
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Also worth flagging that he does live-streams now too. You could argue the YouTube videos are cherry-picked, but you cannot cherry-pick a live-stream before the fact:


Cool - I don't think cherry pick was very persuasive even before - given the voluminous output. Unlike corporate PR team (say like MobilEye) that can run dozens of trials and put out the best one, Omar can't alone do it.
 
Dirty Tesla has a good drive around Ann Arbor including some tough construction routing. This morning I had a construction failure but it was a lot more complex on a wider and busier road.
Yowza! He had a close call. Too often FSDj gets confused with lead vehicle distances/separation. Maybe lead vehicle separation/distance isn't being properly updating when FSDj creeps? I've noticed uncomfortable lead vehicle separation at stop lights and FSDj keeps creeping forward. Definitely not a laughing matter.

 
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I’m certain about the sudden changes due to map updates since my S started doing the correct behavior on highway merge points out of the blue. I posted a video a few pages back, but it suddenly started stopping at signs and merging differently with no FSDb update.
It’s not clear to me how much the neural net plays into it. From what I understand there’s no onboard neural net processing occurring but How are they using the NN and is it just to guide algorithm changes or is it affecting things on a drive by drive basis?
 
He has his share of bad outcomes either way. He doesn't seem immune.
Not sure what that means.

Yowza! He had a close call. Too often FSDj gets confused with lead vehicle distances/separation. Maybe lead vehicle separation/distance isn't being properly updating when FSDj creeps? I've noticed uncomfortable lead vehicle separation at stop lights and FSDj keeps creeping forward. Definitely not a laughing matter.

What I've noticed is that in 11.x (may be even 10.69.x) - FSD uses optimistic method i.e. when the lead vehicle is turning it will continue without slowing down much in the (optimistic) hope that the vehicle will turn quickly. So, it can get close to the vehicle if it doesn't turn quickly enough etc. So, FSD is kind of aggressive.

The other situation where it gets close is merge - where it doesn't adjust the speed well enough to merge after a good distance from the vehicle in front.
 
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