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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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It seems that ego can follow other cars with no problem, but when left taking the lead, there can be unexpected problems. I suspect that others already know about this behavior, but the lightbulb just went on for me.
I'd broaden your observation to say that ego's behavior is modified by lead car observations. But it can either be for the better and for the worse. I have a somewhat perplexing intersection in which a fully divided right turn lane "grew" a stop light some months ago--puzzling long-time human drivers. A helpful sign was posted more recently, asserting that we should turn right on red AFTER stopping. Of course, current FSDb does not read signs, so behavior for that situation has varied.

Lots of the human-driven cars run that red light. When ego sees a lead car do it, ego is pretty likely to emulate them. I have seen other examples of bad behavior by example. Lead car behavior is definitely observed, and has effects.
 
Another issue with FSD beta. It turns into the "suicide lane".

I have since turning into unintended turn lane since 11.4.2. I am heading to my coffee shop off a highway which has been done flawlessly In 10.3.x. but on the service road in this location which is a mile before the destination it decided to turn into the lane and sped up at speed limit @55mph. I have to hard brake and emergency turn into the complex, cannot swerve back to the service road because of traffic, if not fast enough, it can easily jump the curb at the end and hit the fire hydrant.

 
Yes that is what I said. That is why I said you are a "part-time" passenger with L3. You are a passenger when L3 is engaged but you cease to be a passenger when you take over. So you are only a passenger when L3 is on but not necessarily for the entire trip. This is in clear contrast with L4/L5, where you are the passenger all the time because you are never asked to take over.
Yep, said the same in not so many words...
 
A bit more on the schizophrenic nature of 11.4.4.

Yesterday, ego was attempting a left hand turn on to a highway from a two lane road. There was not a car in sight, and no requirement to stop. Just a simple left with no traffic. Instead of taking a smooth turn onto the highway, ego stopped, jerked the yoke left and right back and forth for a second or three, and then slowly turned. The car behind me was not happy.

On the same drive, a few minutes later, ego made a smooth left turn at a traffic light while following other cars, and made a second smooth left turn at another traffic light while following other cars, with no problem.

It seems that ego can follow other cars with no problem, but when left taking the lead, there can be unexpected problems. I suspect that others already know about this behavior, but the lightbulb just went on for me.

Joe
It really does seem that, with every 11.4.x release, we are taking a net step backwards from 11.3.6.
 
Just wanted to chime in on the bike-on-hitch issue (see this post for what it looks like on the outside when I mount my bike on the hitch).

I’ve had several instances of FSD swerving suddenly and way out of its lane for apparently no reason (almost running into a car in the adjacent lane once).

I finally understood that it does this because it sometimes sees the bike as a vehicle tailgating it, so it’s trying to take evading action.

Here’s a snapshot of what it thinks it sees (note that this ghost tailgater isn’t constantly shown but flashes on and off, thereby often changing FSD’d path):

IMG_8370.jpeg
 
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So far 11.4.4 has been a step back from 11.4.2 for me.
my last few drives with .2 where pretty amazing, it was successfully handling scenarios it had earlier versions had previously failed.
11.4.4 now fails those again and add new issues that were working in 11.4.2
For the first time the car has decided it no longer needs to slow down for a tight corner on a 55mph road (it really must slow down)
it’s also going back to missing the turn into my neighborhood and stuttering at 4way stops.
At one left turn into a side road, it decided to stop in the oncoming lane to attempt the left turn.
I want my 11.4.2 back
 
Just wanted to chime in on the bike-on-hitch issue (see this post for what it looks like on the outside when I mount my bike on the hitch).

I’ve had several instances of FSD swerving suddenly and way out of its lane (almost running into a car in the adjacent lane once).

I finally understood that it does this because it sometimes sees the bike as a vehicle tailgating it, so it’s trying to take evading action.

Here’s a snapshot of what it thinks it sees (note that this ghost tailgater isn’t constantly shown but flashes on and off, thereby often changing FSD’d path):

View attachment 950710
How did you take the picture that quick? Were the cars stopping?
 
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It did another stunt few days ago. Moving at 25 mph around a home depot complex making a right turn into a 3 lanes service road of the interstate, traffic is usually 55-50 mph as they are about to get on the on-ramp (also the off ramp). It didn’t even stop or slow down to look, just drove right out, after that it only move to the lane next to on ramp and didn’t turn into the on ramp lane until it meets the chevron, brakes and then make a quick left turn, it made it but less than one car distance between the vehicle in the front at 50 mph.
 
There is no ambiguity about it. L3 MUST "request" that you change from being a passenger to being the driver before liability switches back to you.

Can you cite what law says that regarding liability switching?

(Spoiler: you can't, because there isn't one... you're conflating SAE naming terms with actual laws regarding vehicle liability, despite them being different- separate- things)

Again the word liability does not appear, at all, in J3016 from the SAE. It's Not A Thing there.


Most states have not fully clarified responsibility in an L3 system beyond specifying the owner of the vehicle must have liability insurance (and in some cases requiring quite large minimum coverage for it)

But again the original, untrue, claim was that L3 "requires" the maker of the driving system to assume responsibility for accidents. That simply ain't so, because the SAE definition of L3 does not mention, or care, about legal liability.
 
Still on 11.4.2. I tried to install 11.4.3 or .4, but it failed three time to begin the install. After reading the last few pages, it sounds like I lucked out.

Seems kind of like the appropriate thread for a quick question about Autopark. I don't use Autopark very often, but I tried it yesterday, and it failed miserably with a decent sized parking spot. Is this because it's using vision only now? I've never seen it auto park so badly.
 
Can you cite what law says that regarding liability switching?

(Spoiler: you can't, because there isn't one... you're conflating SAE naming terms with actual laws regarding vehicle liability, despite them being different- separate- things)

Again the word liability does not appear, at all, in J3016 from the SAE. It's Not A Thing there.


Most states have not fully clarified responsibility in an L3 system beyond specifying the owner of the vehicle must have liability insurance (and in some cases requiring quite large minimum coverage for it)

But again the original, untrue, claim was that L3 "requires" the maker of the driving system to assume responsibility for accidents. That simply ain't so, because the SAE definition of L3 does not mention, or care, about legal liability.
Casual observation (and maybe a hot take?) :

Appears many believe the manufacturer would take liability for at fault accidents.

My assumption is in at fault situations operating in L3-5 the owner/operator is responsible. The O/O could subsequently pursue legal action against the manufacturer but I don't see laws changing in the near term absolving an owner/operator of responsibility while operating a L3+ system.
 
On a trip home from Lowe’s today, ego was making a left turn on a two lane road. The two lane road is 55mph, and a left turn lane exists where I was turning. Ego turns in the left lane to turn left, there is no oncoming traffic, when all of a sudden, it lurches right, into the 55 mph through traffic lane. I caught it quickly, but it managed to get a couple of feet into the through traffic lane before I jerked the wheel left. Thank goodness there was no through traffic next to me at the time or I could have been clipped or freaked out the through lane vehicle enough to cause them to crash.

This little event worries me because it is the second time where ego signals a turn, has a projected path in the correct direction, then turns the opposite direction. I will try to take a video today if traffic on the road is light.

Joe
 
On a trip home from Lowe’s today, ego was making a left turn on a two lane road. The two lane road is 55mph, and a left turn lane exists where I was turning. Ego turns in the left lane to turn left, there is no oncoming traffic, when all of a sudden, it lurches right, into the 55 mph through traffic lane. I caught it quickly, but it managed to get a couple of feet into the through traffic lane before I jerked the wheel left. Thank goodness there was no through traffic next to me at the time or I could have been clipped or freaked out the through lane vehicle enough to cause them to crash.

This little event worries me because it is the second time where ego signals a turn, has a projected path in the correct direction, then turns the opposite direction. I will try to take a video today if traffic on the road is light.

Joe
I have experienced this as well, except I was driving to Home Depot and not home from “blows”. 🤣
 
It really does seem that, with every 11.4.x release, we are taking a net step backwards from 11.3.6.
It is perplexing. Would love to know the reason. Things should improve as the team 'fixes' issues and training is presumably improving unless HW3 is hardware limited - which is a good assumption.

It would be interesting to know if HW4's more capable processing is providing v11.4.4 improvements or the same dismal regressions. If it's regressions then training is likely failing miserably and/or the team is pumping out garbage.

Poorly managed teams sometimes result in pet projects that shouldn't make production but continue on in spite of poor performance. A person might rationalize it by benefitting from research papers, presentations, statistics gathering...
 
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So originally I posted about 11.4.4 being pretty unusable for me (HW3), and how 11.4.3 was great. I took a few more drives with it and will say it's really a toss up now. Some drives it works pretty well, better than I originally said 11.4.4 does, but then other drives it really is just straight up unsuable, stopping in the middle of the road, abrupt stops behind other cars, really nervous/shaky turns, and had some turns where it was so nervous it just stopped. Unfortunately did not get footage of that.

What I did get footage of was on a drive where it worked pretty well, it took a left turn really quickly up a one way/do not enter that was also blind. Before people say why didn't I stop it, well I kinda caught it too late-ish. I could tell it was getting ready to turn but I thought it would go to the next one and thought if it was going to go up this do not enter it would stutter a bit and that I would have time to stop it, but it went straight into it confidently so caught me by surprise. Yes, my fault for not catching it in time, and it could have ended pretty badly.

Also, something else I noticed (and got footage of), not sure if this is known, but with sunglasses on, I get wheel nags considerably less. I took my sunglasses off, and immediately got nagged much more frequently. Sunglasses back on and nags died down.
 
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