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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


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Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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There are things that are not dependent on HW/SW configuration and can be fixed earlier:

1. Prepare to change lane early than normal human driving in order to make left/right turns. A human driver can quickly switch to the next lane to make turn at the intersection but the current state of the art of FSD cannot do that. So FSD should take action early.
2. Prepare to change lange early to enter freeway ramp.
3. Prepare to change lane early to exit freeway.
4. Move to the left lane right away after enter freeway.
5. Stop using lane centering algorithm. Put the car in the center of the rightmost lane of the road is not the right thing to do. Similarly with the situation with the car on the rightmost lane of the ramp to enter freeway. I guess my car veered to the shoulder when entering freeway because of this.
Use the left lane marker as a reference is better.
6. Stop using shortest path or shortest time algorithm on city streets. I guess this causes random lane changing. Use least lane changing algorithm.
Seems many of these Could be a variable of configuration. I rarely have issues with most of those items. Not perfect but barely an issue.
 
I had been on FSDb 11.3.6 since 2023.12.11 came out. Mixed bag of experiences. I have gotten pretty good at anticipating the scenarios on which Beta is going to do badly. Today I was finally allowed to update SW to 2023.20.7, but Beta remained at 11.3.6. On a short drive today on roads where I had never used Beta before, Beta made two critical mistakes, once trying to exit a highway into cones where the exit used to be in a construction area, and once totally blowing an UPL on a 2 lane county road, misjudging the turn, and accelerating instead of slowing. Yikes. Both were immediate disengagements with reports made verbally. I will continue to use Beta, and hope for future improvements, but I am always on guard and prepared to intervene.
 
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Same for us - it’s a wonderful narcotic-sparing analgesic adjunct. I use it in the OR all the time and it’s frustrating when we can’t get it. Ketamine’s an old drug that’s seen quite a resurgence in recent years. I have no idea what the underlying. Abuse of the shortage is but the increased use across the board may certainly be part of it. Hopefully the supply stabilizes soon.
We can only hope
 
I had been on FSDb 11.3.6 since 2023.12.11 came out. Mixed bag of experiences. I have gotten pretty good at anticipating the scenarios on which Beta is going to do badly. Today I was finally allowed to update SW to 2023.20.7, but Beta remained at 11.3.6. On a short drive today on roads where I had never used Beta before, Beta made two critical mistakes, once trying to exit a highway into cones where the exit used to be in a construction area, and once totally blowing an UPL on a 2 lane county road, misjudging the turn, and accelerating instead of slowing. Yikes. Both were immediate disengagements with reports made verbally. I will continue to use Beta, and hope for future improvements, but I am always on guard and prepared to intervene.

Anticipating scenarios helps. And from there I disengage prior when the outcome is likely poor rather than endure the frustration. It follows the old 'once shame on you' adage. Of course it's good to give feedback. If only the feedback had more traction.
 
Seems many of these Could be a variable of configuration. I rarely have issues with most of those items. Not perfect but barely an issue.
I routinely have problems with many of them. The car still needs too long to merge so exiting on a cloverleaf is an automatic fail most of the time and lane selection continues to be a major achilles heel for FSD.
 
Disappointment. After a month of the software version that came with my MX Plaid, I finally got upgraded to 2023.20.7, thinking I would finally get FSD 11.3.6 with that. No, apparently 2023.20.7 does NOT have FSD for HW4 vehicles. It says it will appear in a further software version. Bummer.
 
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Yesterday I had 3 types of disengagements with FSD 11.4.4:
1. Car crept to close to the intersection to make right turn to the main road from a small road and when exiting freeway to make right turn to the main road.
Both roads had 3 lanes each direction and heavy traffic. It's possible FSD could make the turns without accident but because I did not know its true intention (stop or go) I disengaged.
2. Car swerved to the shoulder when entering freeway on the rightmost lane.
3. Car ran thru the red light to throttle traffic on freeway ram.

Today, 11.4.4 ran very smooth except one phantom break that reduced speed from 65 to 54 mph when it was about to change lane to the exit lane.
I enjoyed a 40 minute drive going through freeways and winding beach roads. I noticed that FSD recognized No Turn On Red sign. When it stopped too long to make right turn at the intersection I almost pressed the accelerator but then I saw No Turn On Red sign. So FSD was right. Another interesting thing was FSD changed to the left most lane and showed a message indicating it wanted to leave the 2 lanes on the right for the cars going from a shopping parking to the street. At one intersection with 4-way stop signs, FSD did not move when there were cars in 4 directions. I took over the wheel.
 
My suspicions about FSD performance variance:

Thermal, thermal, thermal. The vehicle is managing thermal demands and this has implications for cooling of the FSD board.

Some cars have heat pumps and some do not. Does cabin temp setting have an influence? External temp? Sun direction? AC recirculating? Etc

All modern cpu boards have accommodations for temperature related throttling. If the FSD board throttles, latency would increase creating the same effect as if road speed had increased. Perhaps throttle events appear as moments of confusion.

Variables in thermal management could explain performance variance. YMMV
 
Looking for some positives.
Despite some regressions in 11.4.4 the one area of improvement for me is how well FSD now drives on secondary roads particularly with sharp curves. FSD no longer crosses over the center line. Instead of braking too late when the car is well into the curve FSD now slows down sooner making for a much smoother ride around sharp corners.

That and smoother braking when approaching traffic lights and slow traffic, so less jerkiness. Still some situations with harsh braking but less now.
 
SO I finally did get around to doing a camera recal, I also have gotten in the pattern of cleaning the camera lenses regularly (especially if it has been raining). I did notice that the calibration took much longer than I remember when I first got the car last year. So, that is promising.
I went out for a short ride yesterday and it was flawless on 11.4.4.
 
My suspicions about FSD performance variance:

Thermal, thermal, thermal. The vehicle is managing thermal demands and this has implications for cooling of the FSD board.

Some cars have heat pumps and some do not. Does cabin temp setting have an influence? External temp? Sun direction? AC recirculating? Etc

All modern cpu boards have accommodations for temperature related throttling. If the FSD board throttles, latency would increase creating the same effect as if road speed had increased. Perhaps throttle events appear as moments of confusion.

Variables in thermal management could explain performance variance. YMMV
That's a novel speculative dimension, very interesting.
 
My suspicions about FSD performance variance:

Thermal, thermal, thermal. The vehicle is managing thermal demands and this has implications for cooling of the FSD board.

Some cars have heat pumps and some do not. Does cabin temp setting have an influence? External temp? Sun direction? AC recirculating? Etc

All modern cpu boards have accommodations for temperature related throttling. If the FSD board throttles, latency would increase creating the same effect as if road speed had increased. Perhaps throttle events appear as moments of confusion.

Variables in thermal management could explain performance variance. YMMV
The following are more obvious: weight, height, dexterity, temperament, age, sex,... of the driver. :)
 
I've noticed some weird variability in how FSDb 11.4.4 drives. Same car, same driver, same route, same settings. Some days, like Monday, it drove very aggressively hard/quick acceleration, late braking, etc. Then yesterday it was back to its normal self and was very good in my opinion.

I've not been able to figure out what might cause it to go aggressive. (It has only done that for me like three times out of all of my drives.)

I really think Tesla should add a quick survey at the end of each FSDb drive where you could rate it, 1 to 5, on things line lane selection, acceleration, braking, lane changes, and the overall drive...
 
My suspicions about FSD performance variance:

Thermal, thermal, thermal. The vehicle is managing thermal demands and this has implications for cooling of the FSD board.

Some cars have heat pumps and some do not. Does cabin temp setting have an influence? External temp? Sun direction? AC recirculating? Etc

All modern cpu boards have accommodations for temperature related throttling. If the FSD board throttles, latency would increase creating the same effect as if road speed had increased. Perhaps throttle events appear as moments of confusion.

Variables in thermal management could explain performance variance. YMMV
Cars without heat pumps still provide liquid cooling to the AP computer with an A/C compressor to pull the heat out of the liquid coolant. What those cars lack is the ability to heat the cabin using the A/C compressor to pull heat from the air and other heat generating components and must rely on resistive heat. This should have no effect (especially in summer!) on the ability to cool the AP computer.

I would also expect that any throttling of the AP computer due to overheating would be reported in the service logs.
 
I thought Tesla had given up on 11.4.4 (I sure had). I'm still on 11.4.2 and very surprised to see this. Should have gotten it WEEEEEKS ago and hardly excited to install. Probably the least excited ever anticipating installing any update, meh.🥱 Wish I could trade it for 23.20.7. Anyone want to trade? 🤣

IMG_3292.jpeg
 
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I thought Tesla had given up on 11.4.4 (I sure had). I'm still on 11.4.2 and very surprised to see this. Should have gotten it WEEEEEKS ago and hardly excited to install. Probably the least excited ever anticipating installing any update, meh.🥱 Wish I could trade it for 23.20.7. Anyone want to trade? 🤣

View attachment 953423
It’s still very very bad but 11.4.2 was worse imo.
 
This should have no effect (especially in summer!) on the ability to cool the AP computer.
It is a difference between vehicles and systems. I don’t think we can really know much. I do think throttling if it might be happening would have a performance impact.

It would be great to access the logs regarding throttling.

In fairness, throttling is/might be something the SW has to deal with in some manner in some vehicles in the real world so like the UFO landing on the road, FSD has to handle it.

Thanks for your comments.
 
I thought Tesla had given up on 11.4.4 (I sure had). I'm still on 11.4.2 and very surprised to see this. Should have gotten it WEEEEEKS ago and hardly excited to install. Probably the least excited ever anticipating installing any update, meh.🥱 Wish I could trade it for 23.20.7. Anyone want to trade? 🤣

View attachment 953423
Beta testers gotta be testing.
 
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