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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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This is how I know FSD uses the shortest path algorithm:

1. Yesterday when getting out of a parking lot FSD suggested to go to the closest exit to make right turn to the main road. I ignored that suggestion because it's dangerous to go that exist : the car would have to cross 2 lanes leading to the freeway entrance to make the right turn to the third lane for my destination. I drove the car to the street perpendicular to the street I wanted to make right turn to. Then I engaged FSD and the car made a right turn to the parking lot to go back to the original location so that it could use its suggested exit.

2. Today I wanted FSD to go to a store in a large shopping mall. Most people would turn right to either one of the 2 streets then make a left turn to the store. FSD skipped those 2 easy right turns then crossed 2 lanes to turn to a narrow path (just enough to fit one car, like a fast food drive thru lane) because that path was closest to the store. I was scared because I thought that narrow path was a one way lane for cars to exit. After getting out of the car I went to check and found that FSD was right but not what I wanted.

If FSD uses the path with easy turns instead of using the shortest path with hard turns then people will feel more comfortable.
 
This is how I know FSD uses the shortest path algorithm:

1. Yesterday when getting out of a parking lot FSD suggested to go to the closest exit to make right turn to the main road. I ignored that suggestion because it's dangerous to go that exist : the car would have to cross 2 lanes leading to the freeway entrance to make the right turn to the third lane for my destination. I drove the car to the street perpendicular to the street I wanted to make right turn to. Then I engaged FSD and the car made a right turn to the parking lot to go back to the original location so that it could use its suggested exit.

2. Today I wanted FSD to go to a store in a large shopping mall. Most people would turn right to either one of the 2 streets then make a left turn to the store. FSD skipped those 2 easy right turns then crossed 2 lanes to turn to a narrow path (just enough to fit one car, like a fast food drive thru lane) because that path was closest to the store. I was scared because I thought that narrow path was a one way lane for cars to exit. After getting out of the car I went to check and found that FSD was right but not what I wanted.

If FSD uses the path with easy turns instead of using the shortest path with hard turns then people will feel more comfortable.
That may be what you believe, but I can promise you that it doesn't only use shortest path.
There are many times when I will see that car chose a route that decreases left turns, especially into your destination.
If you used shortest route, then why is the return path often different than the TO path?

Sure, there are numerous times it doesn't pick the path that you think is the best. Sure, there are times it can pick stupid routes.
But there are many more times when it does the right thing.
 
That may be what you believe, but I can promise you that it doesn't only use shortest path.
There are many times when I will see that car chose a route that decreases left turns, especially into your destination.
If you used shortest route, then why is the return path often different than the TO path?

Sure, there are numerous times it doesn't pick the path that you think is the best. Sure, there are times it can pick stupid routes.
But there are many more times when it does the right thing.
And, going along these lines..

Just today I was heading home on FSD-b/NoA from a shopping trip during more-or-less rush hour. So, NoA had me going up this busy local road, curving around to the right on this road (it changes names), through a light, a right turn, and two more lights before hanging a left on another more-or-less major road before putting me on the main drag that runs down near my house.

The other option was to not swing around on that first right but to go straight on the same named road, now narrow, a bit twisty, under some railroad tracks; then a right at a stop sign, another right at another stop sign onto another major road, right at the next light, left at the next, and right onto the main drag past my place. Three fewer lights, less traffic, shorter, and faster.

From what I can tell, NoA favors Main Roads with lights, stripes, and no unprotected anything, if it can figure out how to route it.
 
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For my daily commute 11.4.4 has been a step backward in some ways. It now stops dead in right turn lanes in the city that need traffic to continue to move (lane into which it turns is a new lane in the intersecting road and is a continuation of the turn lane), it moves into turn lanes when it's supposed to go straight, then hesitates, stops, then heads for a concrete island (does this every morning, the turn is into a brewery and while I like the sentiment, I have to intervene to prevent a crash). This is all new in v11 (not sure if it was in 11.3.x but it didn't do this in v10.x).

On the interstate, three lanes, upcoming right exit, zero traffic, in the right lane, it moves into the middle lane "to follow route" and then has to make an abrupt move to get back into the right lane to make the exit.

When it moves into an exit lane on the interstate v11.4.4 does it way more aggressively than previous versions and moves hard to the very right of the exit lane, then corrects back to the left too much and nearly encroaches on the adjacent lane, as it ping pongs back and forth to wind up the center of the lane. A less aggressive first move would prevent this.

On two lane roads it hesitates when a car is first seen coming in the opposite direction, even if the car is well within its lane and not encroaching on the center line.

It is much better at turning left onto my street and in a complex intersection whose road markings have worn away.

I'm patiently awaiting the next update. :)
 
And, going along these lines..

Just today I was heading home on FSD-b/NoA from a shopping trip during more-or-less rush hour. So, NoA had me going up this busy local road, curving around to the right on this road (it changes names), through a light, a right turn, and two more lights before hanging a left on another more-or-less major road before putting me on the main drag that runs down near my house.

The other option was to not swing around on that first right but to go straight on the same named road, now narrow, a bit twisty, under some railroad tracks; then a right at a stop sign, another right at another stop sign onto another major road, right at the next light, left at the next, and right onto the main drag past my place. Three fewer lights, less traffic, shorter, and faster.

From what I can tell, NoA favors Main Roads with lights, stripes, and no unprotected anything, if it can figure out how to route it.
Probably local navigation map data has something to with that too.
 
I see on TeslaFi that they are rolling out 2023.20.7 which includes FSD 11.3.6. So far there have been over 5,000 installs of this version, with more pending. One 90% of these had not had FSD previously. This has more than doubled the FSD fleet.

It is possible that this represents simply including that version of FSD code in all production updates, including for folks who have not bought or subscribed to FSD? This would make it available to anyone immediately when they buy or subscribe. It would also mean that the number of active users of FSD is far below the number of "installed" FSD.

With a total of over 10,000 FSD installs out of roughly 20,000 total in TeslaFi, this would mean a 50% uptake of FSD, which I find hard to believe.

Whether $15k or $200 per month price for FSD, it adds nothing to Telas's costs, so is pure profit. Making this immediately available to any customer who wants it seems to make sense.

I also wonder if the FSD highway code is replacing the old AutoPilot code for non-FSD cars.

Any thoughts on this? Is there another thread where this is being discussed?
 
I believe the navigation engine is segregated from FSD Beta.
I see on TeslaFi that they are rolling out 2023.20.7 which includes FSD 11.3.6. So far there have been over 5,000 installs of this version, with more pending. One 90% of these had not had FSD previously. This has more than doubled the FSD fleet.

It is possible that this represents simply including that version of FSD code in all production updates, including for folks who have not bought or subscribed to FSD? This would make it available to anyone immediately when they buy or subscribe. It would also mean that the number of active users of FSD is far below the number of "installed" FSD.

With a total of over 10,000 FSD installs out of roughly 20,000 total in TeslaFi, this would mean a 50% uptake of FSD, which I find hard to believe.

Whether $15k or $200 per month price for FSD, it adds nothing to Telas's costs, so is pure profit. Making this immediately available to any customer who wants it seems to make sense.

I also wonder if the FSD highway code is replacing the old AutoPilot code for non-FSD cars.

Any thoughts on this? Is there another thread where this is being discussed?
This includes a high percentage that don't have FSD Beta (probably most don't). Tesla is likely getting setup to offer the proposed "free month trial" of FSD Beta.

Also AP/NoA switches to and uses the legacy stack. When on FSD Beta you can easily switch back to the legacy stack.

IMG_2739.jpeg
 
I see on TeslaFi that they are rolling out 2023.20.7 which includes FSD 11.3.6. So far there have been over 5,000 installs of this version, with more pending. One 90% of these had not had FSD previously. This has more than doubled the FSD fleet.

It is possible that this represents simply including that version of FSD code in all production updates, including for folks who have not bought or subscribed to FSD? This would make it available to anyone immediately when they buy or subscribe. It would also mean that the number of active users of FSD is far below the number of "installed" FSD.

With a total of over 10,000 FSD installs out of roughly 20,000 total in TeslaFi, this would mean a 50% uptake of FSD, which I find hard to believe.

Whether $15k or $200 per month price for FSD, it adds nothing to Telas's costs, so is pure profit. Making this immediately available to any customer who wants it seems to make sense.

I also wonder if the FSD highway code is replacing the old AutoPilot code for non-FSD cars.

Any thoughts on this? Is there another thread where this is being discussed?
I think that you are reading way too much into this.
Trust me, Tesla is trying to get back down to one code base. The implementation of FSD 11 and the removal of the USS just through a stone into the gears that they expected wouldn't be a big deal, but then adding the recall, became a much bigger one than expected.
 
I see on TeslaFi that they are rolling out 2023.20.7 which includes FSD 11.3.6. So far there have been over 5,000 installs of this version, with more pending. One 90% of these had not had FSD previously. This has more than doubled the FSD fleet.

It is possible that this represents simply including that version of FSD code in all production updates, including for folks who have not bought or subscribed to FSD? This would make it available to anyone immediately when they buy or subscribe. It would also mean that the number of active users of FSD is far below the number of "installed" FSD.

With a total of over 10,000 FSD installs out of roughly 20,000 total in TeslaFi, this would mean a 50% uptake of FSD, which I find hard to believe.

Whether $15k or $200 per month price for FSD, it adds nothing to Telas's costs, so is pure profit. Making this immediately available to any customer who wants it seems to make sense.

I also wonder if the FSD highway code is replacing the old AutoPilot code for non-FSD cars.

Any thoughts on this? Is there another thread where this is being discussed?
I don't think that everyone installing 2023.20.7 has FSD, let alone uses FSDb. Like the basic FSD, it's sitting there available to someone who purchases or subscribes to it so they get immediate access. But, if you are not a subscriber, you don't even see it.
 
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I don't think that everyone installing 2023.20.7 has FSD, let alone uses FSDb. Like the basic FSD, it's sitting there available to someone who purchases or subscribes to it so they get immediate access. But, if you are not a subscriber, you don't even see it.
My guess, especially since I have FSD it that 2023.7.20 is the latest FSD release. That's for early model Model 3 and Model Y.
 
I see on TeslaFi that they are rolling out 2023.20.7 which includes FSD 11.3.6. So far there have been over 5,000 installs of this version, with more pending. One 90% of these had not had FSD previously. This has more than doubled the FSD fleet.

It is possible that this represents simply including that version of FSD code in all production updates, including for folks who have not bought or subscribed to FSD? This would make it available to anyone immediately when they buy or subscribe. It would also mean that the number of active users of FSD is far below the number of "installed" FSD.

With a total of over 10,000 FSD installs out of roughly 20,000 total in TeslaFi, this would mean a 50% uptake of FSD, which I find hard to believe.

Whether $15k or $200 per month price for FSD, it adds nothing to Telas's costs, so is pure profit. Making this immediately available to any customer who wants it seems to make sense.

I also wonder if the FSD highway code is replacing the old AutoPilot code for non-FSD cars.

Any thoughts on this? Is there another thread where this is being discussed?
I would like to add that 2023.20.7 does NOT have FSDb for purchasers with HW4. Coming in a further release, they say.
 
It is possible that this represents simply including that version of FSD code in all production updates, including for folks who have not bought or subscribed to FSD?
Yeah 2023.20.7 is also going to vehicles that can't activate FSD Beta 11.3.6 such as those in Europe or with older hardware including 2012 Model S without even Autopilot.

Unifying the vehicle software probably simplifies maintenance and allows for immediate activation of FSD Beta with FSD Capability acquisition. It also likely allows for Shadow Mode data collection in preparation for global FSD Beta deployment.
 
Having read many who say 11.4.4 is worse than 11.4.2 and many who say the opposite. As someone who was on 11.4.2 for a looooong time and just got 11.4.4 so far I find them anecdotally indistinguishable and an overall regression from 11.3.6. So what the hell is Tesla next move with this convoluted world of multi FSD Betas, software combinations and HW3/HW4?
 
Having read many who say 11.4.4 is worse than 11.4.2 and many who say the opposite. As someone who was on 11.4.2 for a looooong time and just got 11.4.4 so far I find them anecdotally indistinguishable and an overall regression from 11.3.6. So what the hell is Tesla next move with this convoluted world of multi FSD Betas, software combinations and HW3/HW4?
After talking with many folks, it seems that 11.4.4 is an improvement for HW4 and seems like a step back for HW3 and lower.
 
Having read many who say 11.4.4 is worse than 11.4.2 and many who say the opposite. As someone who was on 11.4.2 for a looooong time and just got 11.4.4 so far I find them anecdotally indistinguishable and an overall regression from 11.3.6. So what the hell is Tesla next move with this convoluted world of multi FSD Betas, software combinations and HW3/HW4?
WTFK
 
One behavior I started to observe is the boldness on the highway when facing merging traffic. Most drive above 65 mph on the interstate here, and people speed up to merge into the busy highway, the merge area is usually wider near the end with the right most lane. There are several instances when multiple vehicles trying.to merge, I can see them charging up and we will meet. FSDb stays in its course at 65 mph, so it ended up the first vehicle merged ahead of me, then my car passed the second vehicle, we are both in the wide area briefly for a second or so, and I ended up ahead of the second vehicle. I think there is one time, FSDb has to hard brake because it wouldn’t make it and I have to take over, not fun. Normally if I am driving the car, I will check to see if I can safely move over to the left lane or speed up to pass all of them, but watching FSDb just stays on the course as if nobody around requires faith. ;)
 
I see on TeslaFi that they are rolling out 2023.20.7 which includes FSD 11.3.6. So far there have been over 5,000 installs of this version, with more pending. One 90% of these had not had FSD previously. This has more than doubled the FSD fleet.

It is possible that this represents simply including that version of FSD code in all production updates, including for folks who have not bought or subscribed to FSD? This would make it available to anyone immediately when they buy or subscribe. It would also mean that the number of active users of FSD is far below the number of "installed" FSD.

With a total of over 10,000 FSD installs out of roughly 20,000 total in TeslaFi, this would mean a 50% uptake of FSD, which I find hard to believe.

Whether $15k or $200 per month price for FSD, it adds nothing to Telas's costs, so is pure profit. Making this immediately available to any customer who wants it seems to make sense.

I also wonder if the FSD highway code is replacing the old AutoPilot code for non-FSD cars.

Any thoughts on this? Is there another thread where this is being discussed?
My wife’s 3 does not have FSD and she got this version last night