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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Watching the Omar clip and earlier O'Dowd clip and my driving experience with FSDb on local city streets, I have to say Tesla FSDb implementation is missing quite a bit on "mid-distances" plannings and some situations detection capabilities. I also think that v12 is not going to be better if these problem areas are not taken care of seriously.

Namely, down hill and up hill drives requires more care. On down hills, the effective distance detection are degraded. The camera is looking down with no horizon. The running red light on O'Dowd's clip and running Stop sign on Omar's clip illustrated this problem. On up hills, the front horizon is lacking features with back side views missing lane detection. Omar's clip demonstrated this problem when the uphill turns left over a cross walk. The sudden appearance of traffic and the back side views confusion of lane markings contributed to the sudden left swerve into on coming traffic.

Also, the low riding of Model S teaches Omar a lesson that extra care have to be taken when crossing bumps/pot holes, and sudden change of slopes. I always slow down extra when entering/exiting business entrances. I sometimes have to raise the suspension to high. Parking space stop bars and side curbs are problems too. On the I-5, some sections right lanes have a lot of pot holes due to heavy trucks traffic. I usually just hog the left lane at those sections.
 
Also, the low riding of Model S teaches Omar a lesson that extra care have to be taken when crossing bumps/pot holes, and sudden change of slopes. I always slow down extra when entering/exiting business entrances. I sometimes have to raise the suspension to high. Parking space stop bars and side curbs are problems too. On the I-5, some sections right lanes have a lot of pot holes due to heavy trucks traffic. I usually just hog the left lane at those sections.
I wonder whether some of Omar’s issues are because of the wider S. We have speculated here before that 3/Y seem to drive better than S/X.
 
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I guess that my increased FSD use over the last few weeks has triggered something, instead of being among the last to get updated the car now has 8.3 installing
Interesting... I was always group 1 or 2 to get a release after being in the 100 safety score people. Then I got pushed down the list sometime. This update came yesterday, which is weird 🤔. Now I am early again? What is their actual methodology? I use it 99% of the time. Only time I don't is heavy construction or some a$$ who wants a go... motorcycles, hypercars, etc. Plaid wastes them all.
2 weeks ago I lined up with a guy that just came from a dragstrip.
Had numbers painted on his car and all. He got smoked also.
 
I encountered a FSD safer than human situation this week. FSD needs to exit the highway, it moved to the right lane about a mile ahead, buffered ramps are common here for both onramp and offramp, there was a car in the front and exiting, so normal intelligent human driver will slow down and follow that car, move to the buffered lane when it is safe to do so (i.e. no other car coming onramp from behind in that lane). FSD decided it is not at the fork to exit yet, keep going then it decided its time to turn, but there is a car coming up onramp in the lane, no problem, just speed up and cut in front of him, makes a quick turn and oh crap, there is a car in front, let's brake, finally made the exit safely, definitely much safer human if driving that way.
Such rubbish. As I’ve said before, I do think FSD enabled makes the car much, much safer. That’s just because the driver will death grip their wheel/yoke and pay a level of attention to the stupid sugar their car will attempt that it becomes just about impossible for it to have an accident because of the sheer amount of anticipation of death felt by the driver and their need for self preservation at all costs.

Well done, Tesla! I wouldn’t even wait for V12 to take the “BETA” moniker out of “FSD BETA.” I’d have done that ages ago. Mission accomplished!
 
Such rubbish. As I’ve said before, I do think FSD enabled makes the car much, much safer. That’s just because the driver will death grip their wheel/yoke and pay a level of attention to the stupid sugar their car will attempt that it becomes just about impossible for it to have an accident because of the sheer amount of anticipation of death felt by the driver and their need for self preservation at all costs.

Well done, Tesla! I wouldn’t even wait for V12 to take the “BETA” moniker out of “FSD BETA.” I’d have done that ages ago. Mission accomplished!
I'm convinced, it's really Elon's fault as he hamstrings the developers and saddles them with a bunch of BS requirements; like Vision only, no radar, no ultrasonic sensors, make my tweet (okay, "X post") not showing me as a liar/BS'er, etc. I feel for the Engineers and programmers; not their fault. Same for the Cyber <Insert your fav word here>. The Engineers were not fans of the directed orders to create what we now have - that has been reported on for some time now.
 
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Got mine too, guess we're are off the naughty list 😜, or maybe this is the version that kills us both. So maybe we are now officially on the Naughty list!!
With the dry/non wiping being reported as worse on 11.4.8.1 at least this time I'm happy to keep my last place in the queue. While I want single pull FSD activation and would LOVE to get rid of TACC I'm not going to install 11.4.8.1 when I get the Notification in a couple of weeks and wait until it comes in the Holiday update (still going to suck eggs/dry wiping). So take your time Tesla (as usual).
 
With the dry/non wiping being reported as worse on 11.4.8.1 at least this time I'm happy to keep my last place in the queue. While I want single pull FSD activation and would LOVE to get rid of TACC I'm not going to install 11.4.8.1 when I get the Notification in a couple of weeks and wait until it comes in the Holiday update (still going to suck eggs/dry wiping). So take your time Tesla (as usual).
FSDj wise, are you really expecting another substantive (or any, for that matter) FSDj release? I'm just hoping they bring bring themselves to get us off of the six month old .27 firmware branch and on to .44....... Too much to ask? Probably so..... but, I suspect we will get more games and fart sounds....
 
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Interesting... I was always group 1 or 2 to get a release after being in the 100 safety score people. Then I got pushed down the list sometime. This update came yesterday, which is weird 🤔. Now I am early again? What is their actual methodology? I use it 99% of the time. Only time I don't is heavy construction or some a$$ who wants a go... motorcycles, hypercars, etc. Plaid wastes them all.
2 weeks ago I lined up with a guy that just came from a dragstrip.
Had numbers painted on his car and all. He got smoked also.
"I was always group 1 or 2 to get a release after being in the 100 safety score people."
How to get 100? The highest I can have is 96-98. If I don't use FSD often then I probably have below 90. The safety criteria is lame for people in California. Fortunately Tesla cannot use safety scores for insurance rate in California.
 
The highest I can have is 96-98. If I don't use FSD often then I probably have below 90.

Really? FSD would definitely drag my score down - it speeds up, triggering a forward collision warning, then slams on the brake, if I don't disengage FSD or quickly reduce speed limit.

I'm also in California, so I just turn off safety score - too distracting.
 
Really? FSD would definitely drag my score down - it speeds up, triggering a forward collision warning, then slams on the brake, if I don't disengage FSD or quickly reduce speed limit.

I'm also in California, so I just turn off safety score - too distracting.
That's what I was planning to say. To get 100 you need to do the opposite of FSD. Gentle acceleration, braking, and steering and keep 3 second separation from lead vehicles. A while back there was a sticky post on the techniques.
 
Looks like the downloads are increasing on Tesalfi by the day. At some point we should be getting some honest non-shill feedback and whether the updated video module results in a noticeable change in latency.
Wife returns from store missing a few items, so I'm dispatched.... took the Plaid with its new v11.8.1 junk - AUTO Wipers on. Trip was "all city" driving; 8 miles route trip. FSDj set on "Average". Observations:

1. Less spastic wheel/yoke (the only good)
2. It's cloudy with light drizzle here in Seattle. As soon as I left my garage (and for the entire route), my Flagship "in city" L1.5+ driving aid warned me (see attached) of possible degraded performance (never had that with my poor-boy Subaru Eyesight L2 features that worked in city (e.g., TACC functions, Rear cross traffic alerting, etc.). Degraded due to "Poor weather" - now defined as when cloudy with light drizzle. Reliable/predictable L2+ my @$$....
3. As you may recall from prior reviews, we have a gate. In the past, the junk would stop and show the red hands of death. Now, it continues to steam toward the gate as if it were not there, while showing the red hands of death... I had to stand on the brake pedal at 10' from the gate.
4. Constantly had to give it pedal and intersections, ramps, etc. In name cases (sh)it just wanted to "idle" through the intersection (after stopping).
5. Wipers, spazzed out more than prior "downgrade".

Summary - See attached photo. I will not be driving this version again. Done until v12j^2

YMMV.

IMG_9859.jpegIMG_9851.jpeg
 
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That's what I was planning to say. To get 100 you need to do the opposite of FSD. Gentle acceleration, braking, and steering and keep 3 second separation from lead vehicles. A while back there was a sticky post on the techniques.
Did they change the algorithm? Back when you had to audition for FSDb any mistakes caused by AP didn't count against you.

If they did, that really sucks!
 
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