FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[Gbills]

GUESS THE RELEASE DATE V11
Make your educated guess on the release date , to the general population, for V11.?.?.?.? My entry is 04/19/2023. Reply to this message and I will announce the winner. Good luck to all.

 

[JulienW]

GUESS THE RELEASE DATE V11
Make your educated guess on the release date , to the general population, for V11.?.?.?.? My entry is 04/19/2023. Reply to this message and I will announce the winner. Good luck to all.

Where is a poll about V11 Release date you can vote in. I voted March..............22.

Poll : When will Tesla release FSD Beta 11 ?

Elon Musk said in a recent interview with Lex Fridman that release 11, which would have significant fundamental changes to FSD Beta is in "alpha" stage now. When do you think Tesla will release FSD Beta v11.x to most of the current testers ? See this thread for details on 11...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Gbills]

Where is a poll about V11 Release date you can vote in. I voted March..............22.

Poll : When will Tesla release FSD Beta 11 ?

Elon Musk said in a recent interview with Lex Fridman that release 11, which would have significant fundamental changes to FSD Beta is in "alpha" stage now. When do you think Tesla will release FSD Beta v11.x to most of the current testers ? See this thread for details on 11...

teslamotorsclub.com

I see that was March 2022

 

[JulienW]

I see that was March 2022

You see correctly. I was somewhat more pessimistic and thought it would take to at least March.........22. Glad I didn't hold my breath and NOT about to start now either.

If you vote in the poll now you are guaranteed to be in the top few precent and likely correct.

 

[Twiglett]

You see correctly. I was somewhat more pessimistic and thought it would take to at least March.........22. Glad I didn't hold my breath and NOT about to start now either.

I was more pessimistic and voted July 2022. Now we look like unrealistic optimists
I would stick to my vote but just change the year - July 2023.

In other news I took a buddy out for drive because he'd heard about FSD and that it was real. Never seen it before from inside the car.
Initial reaction was super impressed by how well it worked and its smoothness. Then came the first unneeded lane change, followed by a 4-way stop and a tight right turn junction. Then his reaction became "how the hell did they release this to the public?"
He asked that if it can't drive any better than a teenaged learner then why bother. Pointing out the "beta" status made him even more incredulous.
Hey ho.

 

[kabin]

GUESS THE RELEASE DATE V11
Make your educated guess on the release date , to the general population, for V11.?.?.?.? My entry is 04/19/2023. Reply to this message and I will announce the winner. Good luck to all.

Feb 31 2023.

 

[azred]

GUESS THE RELEASE DATE V11
Make your educated guess on the release date , to the general population, for V11.?.?.?.? My entry is 04/19/2023. Reply to this message and I will announce the winner. Good luck to all.

Nov. 11, 2029 to celebrate Elon’s prison release from his multiple fraud convictions.

 

[Buckminster]

GUESS THE RELEASE DATE V11
Make your educated guess on the release date , to the general population, for V11.?.?.?.? My entry is 04/19/2023. Reply to this message and I will announce the winner. Good luck to all.

05/04/23
May the force be with you

 

[arbitrage000]

I'm sure this has been brought up before but I couldn't find it with searching....

Does anyone know if regular AP is going to use the single stack code for its highway driving from V11 or will regular AP (cars without FSD) still use the old highway AP code?

 

[JulienW]

I'm sure this has been brought up before but I couldn't find it with searching....

Does anyone know if regular AP is going to use the single stack code for its highway driving from V11 or will regular AP (cars without FSD) still use the old highway AP code?

Because it is conjecture at best but......

Likely at some point Tesla will replace all legacy code with the new Stack. However as long as V11 is taking it is obvious the highway Stack has had and will likely have lots of problems and bugs that need to be worked out. So my CRAZY A$$ guess (and I dumb a$$ voted we would get V11 in March of 22 so my opinion is not worth much ) is it will be about a year or 2 after V11 is released.

 

[Twiglett]

Because it is conjecture at best but......

Likely at some point Tesla will replace all legacy code with the new Stack. However as long as V11 is taking it is obvious the highway Stack has had and will likely have lots of problems and bugs that need to be worked out. So my CRAZY A$$ guess (and I dumb a$$ voted we would get V11 in March of 22 so my opinion is not worth much ) is it will be about a year or 2 after V11 is released.

that got me thinking
As AP is already tagged as beta and FSD is really don't try this at home beta. If they replace the AP beta with the FSD version of beta...
Does that change AP to become beta-beta?

 

[JulienW]

that got me thinking
As AP is already tagged as beta and FSD is really don't try this at home beta. If they replace the AP beta with the FSD version of beta...
Does that change AP to become beta-beta?

After a FULL year of no show I'm starting to believe V11/highway Stack is still in Alpha. So AP would be an Alpha Beta......or is it a Beta Alpha??????

 

[DarkForest]

I wonder if v11 is taking longer to come out than expected because a bunch of employees are test driving hw4 instead of v11 on hw3.

 

[powertoold]

I wonder if v11 is taking longer to come out than expected because a bunch of employees are test driving hw4 instead of v11 on hw3.

You mean this?

 

[diplomat33]

V11 delayed. Elon says V11 is turning out to be harder than he expected:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622000758617939969

 

[Zane Liu]

V11 delayed. Elon says V11 is turning out to be harder than he expected:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622000758617939969

Sure. End of week. Sure…

 

[Knightshade]

I mean he didn't say which week, so that checks out.

 

[JulienW]

I mean he didn't say which week, so that checks out.

...and of course he also said "Hoping" too. If there is one thing you can "take to the Bank" it is hope. I'm "hoping" to win the Lotto. So about the same odds as getting V11 this winter.

 

[Mardak]

It's interesting that they're replacing some C++ navigation and control heuristics with neural networks as that seems to suggest there's available compute for potentially comfort related issues now that safety might be on a good trajectory. But at the same time the rearchitecting of existing neural networks might suggest they weren't working well enough for highways either/both of accuracy and compute.

With 11.3 still not ready, it seems like the 2022.44.25.20 version spotted on TeslaFi on December 25th was FSD Beta 11.2 maybe as part of a slightly wider release to employees. Elon Musk was already talking about needing a 11.3 in the Twitter Spaces from December 22nd, so if it's ready end of this upcoming week, it'll be 50 days of development for this version.

 

[powertoold]

It's interesting that they're replacing some C++ navigation and control heuristics with neural networks as that seems to suggest there's available compute for potentially comfort related issues now that safety might be on a good trajectory. But at the same time the rearchitecting of existing neural networks might suggest they weren't working well enough for highways either/both of accuracy and compute.

With 11.3 still not ready, it seems like the 2022.44.25.20 version spotted on TeslaFi on December 25th was FSD Beta 11.2 maybe as part of a slightly wider release to employees. Elon Musk was already talking about needing a 11.3 in the Twitter Spaces from December 22nd, so if it's ready end of this upcoming week, it'll be 50 days of development for this version.

There are a lot of major challenges IMO.

A big part of V11 is replacing the USS (from the notes about 4x spatial transformer resolution), and they haven't released that yet (already 4 months since they removed USS in 10/22). Until they can achieve USS replacement, I think there's little hope in whatever they're doing with V11.