FSD Beta v11.x

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

Yelobird said:
Absolutely and not even a question. Try asking someone who can’t physically drive what they would pay/do for freedom to venture out freely.

I'd beg to differ, especially when you tell them first they need to buy a $45,000 car and on top of that pay an additional $200 per month. My grandparents don't have that kind of disposable income, and especially if you're disabled. Disability and Social Security pay enough to live on but not live that luxurious.

Now If I bought it for them they would of course say yes.

I'm just telling you reasonable people won't pay unreasonable prices. FSD is literally the price of a used car or a used car payment.

EVNow · May 17, 2023

MARKM3 said:
I just don't ever see the value out of an autonomous vehicle in my own life that justifies a $15,000 expense. It is honestly too much money for majority of Americans. Isn't the take rate on FSD 10% or so? That is about right considering.

$15k is a lot - but so is $100k for a car. Just saying.

I can absolutely see people buying cheaper car to be able to afford the FSD. Imagine being able to send kids to all their activities without having to drive them around. Ability to actually use your laptop and get on a call and pay full attention to the meeting instead of driving.

May be you enjoy driving a lot - so replacing driving isn't of much value to you. For most people it is a big headache - having to fight traffic at peak hours adding tremendous stress to already stressed out lives. Having a personal chauffer for < $10 a day is invaluable - its just the price of a Latte now-a-days.

ps : I don't expect FSD to be priced at $200 if and when it is actually available. It would definitely be more.

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

EVNow said:
$15k is a lot - but so is $100k for a car. Just saying.

I can absolutely see people buying cheaper car to be able to afford the FSD. Imagine being able to send kids to all their activities without having to drive them around. Ability to actually use your laptop and get on a call and pay full attention to the meeting instead of driving.

May be you enjoy driving a lot - so replacing driving isn't of much value to you. For most people it is a big headache - having to fight traffic at peak hours adding tremendous stress to already stressed out lives. Having a personal chauffer for < $10 a day is invaluable - its just the price of a Latte now-a-days.

Those are good points, and if those things add up to 15k/$200 for you then that's what is most important. I agree those things are headaches, but basic autopilot does just fine for me in stop and go traffic.

I agree with the cheaper car analogy - I could see people going with a $25,000 Model - and get the 15,000 FSD. But FSD has to make sense for their daily lives. My wife doesn't care for it, but who knows, maybe seeing it will be believing it.

The kids with the wife not driving didn't pass the wife test for me and I never conduct business in the car (no need) so there really is no value for me there. My commute to work is 20 minutes, and I already have free autopilot that keeps the car in the lane for me and makes the commute easy. Why would I spend another $200 so I could sit in the passenger seat?

FSD is very neat and I love seeing the cunning edge of technology, but the business model is severely flawed at current pricing since as an average American I rarely use my vehicle anyhow. Why would I want to make my commute $10 more expensive every day when I can give that $10 or $200 to my local Methodist church?

Knightshade · May 17, 2023

MARKM3 said:
Yeah it seemed like you misunderstood my post, which was solely about driverless operations of FSD.

Not so much misunderstood, as quoted the parts where you were clearly talking about commercial income from it rather than just driverless for your own family/friends use.

MARKM3 said:
So just so I understand you correctly, you would gladly pay $200 per month for the car to be able to drive your wife and family or go anywhere without an actual driver? So would that be $400 per month if you include your vehicle and your wife's?

If the car could operate without a driver, why would we need 2 cars?

And once you no longer need the second one, it's easily worth $200/mo to get rid of that second car... insurance alone is at least half that or more depending where you live, plus the actual cost of the vehicle-- plus the $ saved never needing to pay uber if you've been out and had anything to drink. 1000% no brainer worth it.

MARKM3 said:
Lets dive into some deep thinking here-
For the average American family, and including my case, there is no way to get around needing at minimum two vehicles in your household.

Of course there is. Why would you need 2 when the car can drop everyone where they need to go, and pick everyone up from where they need to be picked up-- all at any time, without needing to be tethered to the "drivers location"?

MARKM3 said:
Majority of all households have two or more vehicles. I use my vehicle on average 7 hours per week. My wife uses hers 4 hours per week. There is no scenario that me or her could think of other than a road trip, where we feel spending $200 on car autonomy makes sense. And even that was being generous.

And yet you seem to understand how right below?

MARKM3 said:
Ok well what about if we can get rid of a vehicle and just use one? Well if my car drives me to work and then goes and drives her to work, not only am I putting on roughly 3x the miles I normally would on our vehicle (having to pay for the empty legs the car isn't moving a person), but our schedules would have to be indifferent enough to allow for the use of one vehicle, which isn't the case since we work similar hours.

You work in completely opposite directions from each other where the car would be making a full roundtrip for both of you AND taking so long for the trips there's no way to make it work with either of your schedules?

#evenmoredubious

I mean, that's mathematically possible- but I think projecting that unusual a situation onto the rest of the world is....not necessarily so.

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

Knightshade said:
Not so much misunderstood, as quoted the parts where you were clearly talking about commercial income from it rather than just driverless for your own family/friends use.

If the car could operate without a driver, why would we need 2 cars?

And once you no longer need the second one, it's easily worth $200/mo to get rid of that second car... insurance alone is at least half that or more depending where you live, plus the actual cost of the vehicle-- plus the $ saved never needing to pay uber if you've been out and had anything to drink. 1000% no brainer worth it.

Of course there is. Why would you need 2 when the car can drop everyone where they need to go, and pick everyone up from where they need to be picked up-- all at any time, without needing to be tethered to the "drivers location"?

And yet you seem to understand how right below?

You work in completely opposite directions from each other where the car would be making a full roundtrip for both of you AND taking so long for the trips there's no way to make it work with either of your schedules?

#evenmoredubious

I mean, that's mathematically possible- but I think projecting that unusual a situation onto the rest of the world is....not necessarily so.

Yes, we work in opposite directions and even if we didn't, you still have to go back and pick one of us up. I'm not going to sit in the vehicle until it's my time to go to work xD. The car sitting actually reduces mileage, and as such, maintains value. Her commute is 10 minutes into one town and mine is 20 minutes into another different town.

Our car would actually get about 3x the mileage on it if we used it as you described being so amazing with FSD, so theoretically it would not only cost us more to charge it over having two dedicated vehicles, cost us more by paying the FSD subscription, and cost us more for taking depreciation hits on a worn out car so much faster.

If we go to only one vehicle, not only do we restrict our freedom but we restrict our schedule. You now have to hail the vehicle to your location, you lose freedom of having a dedicated vehicle waiting for you at all times, etc.

Most American's aren't going to do the above. If you are willing to rag out a car in 3 years, than that is your prerogative. Instead of 15,000 per year on your electric car you're putting 45,000 miles per year on it.

Keep in mind it cost you to use FSD and the useful life of the vehicle in it's entirety just got diminished at 2x-3x the pace it would normally.

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

And knightshade, I feel we are in the minority of American's with our daily commute. We have people at my work that commute 30 minutes, 1 hour, 45 minutes, 30 minutes, etc.

Very few live close to work, so now you have an even LONGER empty leg where now not only are you paying $10 per day for FSD, but now you're paying an additional $5 in electricity per day because you are putting 3x the mileage on it by sending it empty back home to take your wife to work who leaves and hour later than you.

Then it has to come back to pick you up empty. So it's quite funny when you actually go through a normal routine. There really is no practical use for FSD unless it is a robotaxi for hire

Tronguy · May 17, 2023

For all you guys talking about robo taxis: You should look up Vernor Vinge's Rainbow's End, set in the not-too-distant future. In this future one can, if one wants, buy, own, and use a vehicle to one's heart's content, just like anybody does nowadays. However, practically nobody would do this. Start walking down a street and one gets trailed by autonomous vehicles, looking to give one a ride to wherever one wants to go. The cost for that transit: Minimal, because, for whoever actually owns the car, providing transport to the public is how they make money, and the owners all compete with each other. Just like today with Tesla, these are all electric vehicles; they plug themselves in when they need to, and, yeah, solar-panel driven electricity everywhere makes the cost of the car roaming around minimal.

It's possible to actually drive one of these vehicles around, but heavily discouraged.

It's a fun read, for science fiction, and there's some things in there which are a bit over the top; but Mr. Vinge got the autonomous car, reliability, and costs nailed down beautifully. Wouldn't surprise me one bit that Musk got some guidance on his plans from reading this book.

archae86 · May 17, 2023

Trying to assign a real dollar value to the utility of FSD may be the wrong way to guess what price people will pay. There are plenty of features on cars for which the dollar utility is somewhere between nothing and hard to compute (sunroofs, extra chrome, powered this and that..). Still, the makers hang features on the car as they find it helps to sell them, and bare-bones cars are hard to sell even at depressed prices.

I am, frankly, surprised at how big the FSDb fleet of enabled cars actually is. I seriously doubt most of those buyers did a robotaxi-based value analysis in deciding to buy FSD.

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

archae86 said:
Trying to assign a real dollar value to the utility of FSD may be the wrong way to guess what price people will pay. There are plenty of features on cars for which the dollar utility is somewhere between nothing and hard to compute (sunroofs, extra chrome, powered this and that..). Still, the makers hang features on the car as they find it helps to sell them, and bare-bones cars are hard to sell even at depressed prices.

I am, frankly, surprised at how big the FSDb fleet of enabled cars actually is. I seriously doubt most of those buyers did a robotaxi-based value analysis in deciding to buy FSD.

The FSD fleet size is only ~400k and the target audience has been sold on it's promised features over the past 10 years. Most of those people paid way less than 15k for FSD. The average take rate now is ~10% I believe at current price? And that will continue to rapidly drop as their average transaction price decreases with cheaper vehicles.

Supcom · May 17, 2023

Once you have an L4 or L5 FSD, you can start thinking about more than just simple driver replacement while you commute back and forth to work.

If you are a road cyclist, wouldn't it be great to have your own personal SAG car following behind shielding you from approaching traffic from behind? Your car could carry supplies and give you a ride home if you need it.

If you are doing something like river rafting or section hiking the Appalachian Trail, your car can be sent ahead to pick you up where you plan to finish (or come get you where you actually finish!).

If you are travelling long distance, you could let your car do the driving at night while you sleep. This would save both hotel costs and time allowing you to spend your days enjoying more time at your destination.

I'm sure most people could come up with something that appeals to them. And, likely, there will be other ideas we don't even consider at this point. So, to say that the only 'value' in FSD is with commercial robotaxi services, is simply being shortsighted.

uscbucsfan · May 17, 2023

You will be the first person on a bike to be run over by their own L4/L5 car. I hope that makes wikipedia!

Supcom · May 17, 2023

uscbucsfan said:
You will be the first person on a bike to be run over by their own L4/L5 car. I hope that makes wikipedia!

Something to look forward to.

uscbucsfan · May 17, 2023

Honestly, I wish Summon worked. I would love for my car to quickly pick me up at the grocery store when it's raining instead of trying to hit other cars, taking a year, and stopping randomly.

Summon/Reverse Summon is worth $5k to me alone if it was fast and dependable.

Edtreo · May 17, 2023

Sometime in the future....

Wife: Honey, where's the car?
Husband: I send it back home to pick you up 2 hours ago.
Wife: Well, where is it now?
Husband: Let me locate it on my phone........it's stuck tangled in downed wires Cruise Robotaxis Spotted Tangled In Caution Tape And Downed Wires After SF Storm
Wife: You mean like our Roomba? How To Prevent Roomba from Getting Stuck? [Tips & Tricks]

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

Supcom said:
Once you have an L4 or L5 FSD, you can start thinking about more than just simple driver replacement while you commute back and forth to work.

If you are a road cyclist, wouldn't it be great to have your own personal SAG car following behind shielding you from approaching traffic from behind? Your car could carry supplies and give you a ride home if you need it.

If you are doing something like river rafting or section hiking the Appalachian Trail, your car can be sent ahead to pick you up where you plan to finish (or come get you where you actually finish!).

If you are travelling long distance, you could let your car do the driving at night while you sleep. This would save both hotel costs and time allowing you to spend your days enjoying more time at your destination.

I'm sure most people could come up with something that appeals to them. And, likely, there will be other ideas we don't even consider at this point. So, to say that the only 'value' in FSD is with commercial robotaxi services, is simply being shortsighted.

It's not shortsighted, it's just basic economics 101 for the average person. In my own life I have no need for FSD. None of those you listed apply to me. I don't get excited about the possibilities, because when I thought long and hard about the practical use case of FSD, it's honestly not worth $15,000.

Those that get excited about the possibilities, I truly believe don't accurately take into account their daily use habits and analyze how they would honestly use the expensive FSD feature. The ROI on your own life other than the pure excitement of having the car drive you around or go somewhere for you will ware off when you are paying that $200 bill every month. The thoughts will then be "Autopilot was good enough" "we never really use it" etc.

Of course if you are made of money and have an additional $200 or 15k burning a hole in your pocket, then of course you would pay for it. Who wouldn't?

uscbucsfan · May 17, 2023

MARKM3 said:
It's not shortsighted, it's just basic economics 101 for the average person. In my own life I have no need for FSD. None of those you listed apply to me. I don't get excited about the possibilities, because when I thought long and hard about the practical use case of FSD, it's honestly not worth $15,000.

Those that get excited about the possibilities, I truly believe don't accurately take into account their daily use habits and analyze how they would honestly use the expensive FSD feature. The ROI on your own life other than the pure excitement of having the car drive you around or go somewhere for you will were off when you are paying that $200 bill every month. The thoughts will then be "Autopilot was good enough" "we never really use it" etc.

Of course if you are made of money and have an additional $200 or 15k burning a hole in your pocket, then of course you would pay for it. Who wouldn't?

"Basic economics" is a dumb argument for the average person when you paid $100K for a car. You don't need any of the features it has, but you wanted it for prestige, brand name, charging network, speed...whatever you said to yourself.

The $30k I've spent on awesome Level 2 ADAS is justified to me. It's by far my favorite part of the car (not even close). I put up with rattles and other bullshit of an overpriced Civic (MY) because of FSD, software, and the charging network.

If anyone else had anything close to FSD, great UI/UX, and comparable charging network. I'd likely have a different car.

I completely agree with you when it comes to the lower priced cars. If you are getting a $30k car, $15k for a luxury isn't going to have a large take rate.

Supcom · May 17, 2023

uscbucsfan said:
Honestly, I wish Summon worked. I would love for my car to quickly pick me up at the grocery store when it's raining instead of trying to hit other cars, taking a year, and stopping randomly.

Summon/Reverse Summon is worth $5k to me alone if it was fast and dependable.

The fundamental problem with summon is that you still need to have good visibility of the car for safety. So, if the car is blocked by other cars in the lot, it's not useful. Summon really needs to be an L4+ capability, even if the ODD is limited to very low speed in parking lots. I just don't see how it can be useful in anything but the simplest scenarios until the car can operate independently.

uscbucsfan · May 17, 2023

Supcom said:
The fundamental problem with summon is that you still need to have good visibility of the car for safety. So, if the car is blocked by other cars in the lot, it's not useful. Summon really needs to be an L4+ capability, even if the ODD is limited to very low speed in parking lots. I just don't see how it can be useful in anything but the simplest scenarios until the car can operate independently.

I read on Twitter that the FSD team had until the end of the month in November to fix it.

MARKM3 · May 17, 2023

Imagine - FSD is here. Car can drive for you.

uscbucsfan said:
"Basic economics" is a dumb argument for the average person when you paid $100K for a car. You don't need any of the features it has, but you wanted it for prestige, brand name, charging network, speed...whatever you said to yourself.

The $30k I've spent on awesome Level 2 ADAS is justified to me. It's by far my favorite part of the car (not even close). I put up with rattles and other bullshit of an overpriced Civic (MY) because of FSD, software, and the charging network.

If anyone else had anything close to FSD, great UI/UX, and comparable charging network. I'd likely have a different car.

I completely agree with you when it comes to the lower priced cars. If you are getting a $30k car, $15k for a luxury isn't going to have a large take rate.

Show me a model X that sold for $15k more with FSD used ?

They don’t, if someone wants FSD severely devalued their best option is to go used Until the real market value catches up to it, basic economics do apply.

Real consumers value used FSD at what, a $500 feature?

uscbucsfan · May 17, 2023

MARKM3 said:
Imagine - FSD is here. Car can drive for you.

Show me a model X that sold for $15k more with FSD used ?

They don’t, if someone wants FSD severely devalued their best option is to go used Until the real market value catches up to it, basic economics do apply.

Real consumers value used FSD at what, a $500 feature?

Show me a Corvette that sold for 15k more with the painted engine package or an F150 that sold for 10k more for the luxury/technology package. These upgrades rarely translate to much in resale.

Your X has already lost 30%+ in value.

Again, when you are talking 100k on a car you aren't working with much logic in "basic economics".

So there is more likely an attachment rate on the 50K+ cars, but I agree with you it doesn't with the low cost cars.

Edit: None of these rules applied during the pandemic. I sold my first Tesla with FSD for more than I paid for it. Same with my F150.

It's like adding a swimming pool to your backyard. Many say it doesn't really increase the value of your house at all and can even limit buyers, but you enjoy it and you may find someone who will pay more because it's there.

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