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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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I've noticed a huge bump in confidence when making a turn from a light or stop sign. Most of the signs it stops up far enough for me to see past obstructions to double check it's decision, some signs it stops a little bit back but still proceeds with maximum confidence even though I can't see cross traffic, I assume that it wouldn't do that unless it was able to determine the path was safe, it wouldn't be programmed to just blindly take off, would it? Lol

It can be hard to check with the way It works now. Stops at a sign with a brick building to the left and a bush to the right. Stops at the line, creeps forward a bit, I still can't see, but I assume (hope?) It can see as it darts out with a brisk acceleration. I have my foot near the brake but I was just wondering if it can see what I can't, or it's pulling out on hopes and dreams.

The way it works it seems is, in 4.4, the car starts creeping towards the creep wall and if doesn’t see any issues will start accelerating.

Ofcourse the wall may not be at the right place and it may not perceive correctly. If you lean forward and can’t be sure crossing the road is safe as the car starts accelerating, you could disengage.

Happened to me in 11.4.3 as well, and still present in 11.4.4. One turn (first one in my video) I'm fairly confident it cannot see traffic oncoming from the right as it's fairly blind, but every time it seems to have gotten lucky and no cars were coming. Second turn in the video it always has the same behavior as well, stops way too early, then confidently goes. In the past, its always gotten fairly lucky as by the time its reached full confidence GO, I can see no cars are coming, but I'm always ready to brake. In this video I'm not sure if the angle is making it look not as bad, but I definitely felt the car wanted to yolo it but I stepped on the brake since I could see a car was clearly coming.

 
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I have had a lot of very good drives on 11.4.2. However today was one of the worst FSD Beta drives EVER and it was all about lane selection failures OVER and OVER and OVER and OVER and OVER and ......... I finely gave up and canceled my destination so it would stay in the hell in the HOV lane and when I needed to turn went manually.
The “j” in FSDj is not there for entertainment purposes, but rather as a warning for unsuspecting prospective FSD purchasers…
 
Not a regular on this thread, but on my last trip on 11.4.4, noticed how well FSD moved over and back for motorcyclists splitting lanes. I was in the fast lane and the motorcyclists split mine and the carpool lane quite frequently and FSD was edging over briefly for each of them. It absolutely must have seen them approaching via the backup camera, due to the impressive timing of the maneuver. Is this behavior new, or has it been around for a while? It was really impressive and was nice not to get the occasional "F you" from bikers for being clueless....Also I did search this thread and didn't find anything.
 
Not a regular on this thread, but on my last trip on 11.4.4, noticed how well FSD moved over and back for motorcyclists splitting lanes. I was in the fast lane and the motorcyclists split mine and the carpool lane quite frequently and FSD was edging over briefly for each of them. It absolutely must have seen them approaching via the backup camera, due to the impressive timing of the maneuver. Is this behavior new, or has it been around for a while? It was really impressive and was nice not to get the occasional "F you" from bikers for being clueless....Also I did search this thread and didn't find anything.
I've been seeing that with 11.4.3
 
Not a regular on this thread, but on my last trip on 11.4.4, noticed how well FSD moved over and back for motorcyclists splitting lanes. I was in the fast lane and the motorcyclists split mine and the carpool lane quite frequently and FSD was edging over briefly for each of them. It absolutely must have seen them approaching via the backup camera, due to the impressive timing of the maneuver. Is this behavior new, or has it been around for a while? It was really impressive and was nice not to get the occasional "F you" from bikers for being clueless....Also I did search this thread and didn't find anything.
I’ve noticed my HW3 car on 11.4.4 even moves over slightly for large trucks coming towards me on a two lane road. That was a nice surprise.

Now if it could no longer want to move away from the exit lane with no cars…
 
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Curious: Construction on the Garden State Parkway is always proceeded by a traffic speed limit sign to some unreasonably slow limit; typically, 45 mph on a road where the limit is supposedly 55, but everybody blows by at 65. And doesn't slow down for that sign.

When FSD sees the 45 mph sign it slows down for it. It feels like phantom braking, but it's not: It's just the car slowing down at the NHTSA-approved rate. In heavy, high-speed traffic.

So: When the car goes to 25 mph on the GW Parkway, is that in response to a construction speed limit sign? One can tell because the speed limit indicator in the Tesla changes.

No, the construction speed limit is 40 throughout. FSD is still registering the speed limit as 50 mph (pre-construction). It seems to be alarmed by oncoming traffic.
 
Happened to me in 11.4.3 as well, and still present in 11.4.4. One turn (first one in my video) I'm fairly confident it cannot see traffic oncoming from the right as it's fairly blind, but every time it seems to have gotten lucky and no cars were coming. Second turn in the video it always has the same behavior as well, stops way too early, then confidently goes. In the past, its always gotten fairly lucky as by the time its reached full confidence GO, I can see no cars are coming, but I'm always ready to brake. In this video I'm not sure if the angle is making it look not as bad, but I definitely felt the car wanted to yolo it but I stepped on the brake since I could see a car was clearly coming.

There is a particular intersection I often travel where FSDb stops way before the stop sign, at the red line in the image, then blows right through the stop sign to make the left turn. It only slows down enough to make a turn, not to check for traffic, which it can't see due to the trees on the right. It's been doing that for the last year.

Now on 11.4.4 it does not stop at the red line or white line, then creep, but instead stops at the blue line. While this is much safer that before, however it does go right into the bicycle lane without checking. Fortunately it is uphill at that point so bicycles are going much slower than normal.

I don't recall it ever stopping at the white line.
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I drove a little over two hours on 11.4.4 today. Using average settings and not checking the “minimize lane changes for this drive” box produced an intolerable amount of lane changes. Normally, I wouldn’t pay much attention to lane change frequency, but today, I had someone following me which made me acutely aware of lane changes because the person following me was making the lane changes right behind me. The next time I go on a longer drive, I am going to select minimize lane changes to see the impact of this switch. If that doesn’t produce the desired stability, I will try chill mode instead of average mode.

Other than the excessive number of lane changes, the drive, mostly rural freeway, was uneventful. Uneventful == Good.

Joe

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Lately, the pucker factor for FSD 11.4.4 has been pretty high for me. High pucker factor means that the car could flip over and you could be held in the seat by your butt cheeks and nothing else.
 
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wow. I has some really not great experiences with 11.4.4 today. Generally I've been pretty happy with each update I've felt like I had to intervene less frequently.

But man oh man there were really not good situations at all. I won't go into a lot of detail here, I think everyone's experiences are different. But this is the first update I've really not felt great about.
 
11.4.x is a classic case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. For me it seems when it is Jekyll it is a big improvement especially with nuance/near edge cases but when it is screwing up it is crap after near disaster. For me it is more Jekyll than Hyde but when Hyde shows its ugly side it is bad. Tesla needs "dump" 11.4.x and move on to 11.5.x and tune up the Jekyll and mitigate the Hyde and it would be a great update.
 
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No, the construction speed limit is 40 throughout. FSD is still registering the speed limit as 50 mph (pre-construction). It seems to be alarmed by oncoming traffic.
Um. I hear what you say, but just drove the GSP southbound from roughly I-78 to US-1 today. There were two 45 mph zones due to construction: One a couple of miles long about where the road crosses SR22 and a couple of other road and there's cones and solid lines all over; another is a short stretch just south of Clark. The car made attempts to slow to 45 (and said so on the screen) both times. I think that, northbound, only the region south of I-78 has that limit and the car responds to that, each and every time, most recently a couple of days ago. It's been like this, far as I know, since I've been testing FSD-b from mid-2022.

Never ran into any 50 mph speed limit around there, I think, although there's some more construction further north towards Newark, but I rarely go up that way.
 
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I assume that it wouldn't do that unless it was able to determine the path was safe, it wouldn't be programmed to just blindly take off, would it? Lol
Not intentionally programmed to blindly take off. The problem is the "code" in this case is mostly AI models, which are not 100% full proof. As the model improves it will get closer to 100%, but will never reach it. There will always be some case that it will be wrong, and sometimes horribly wrong. The hope is that someday in the future it will be less wrong, and less often, than the average human. We are still a long way from there though, unless you have Elon's calendar, then it's 2x better than a human in two weeks!
 
Those of you who read the Wall Street Journal, and read the cover story on Elon’s drug use, will likely understand why his calendar is… well…. Off a bit??? LOL.

Not intentionally programmed to blindly take off. The problem is the "code" in this case is mostly AI models, which are not 100% full proof. As the model improves it will get closer to 100%, but will never reach it. There will always be some case that it will be wrong, and sometimes horribly wrong. The hope is that someday in the future it will be less wrong, and less often, than the average human. We are still a long way from there though, unless you have Elon's calendar, then it's 2x better than a human in two weeks!
 
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Very very disappointing day with 11.4.4 today.
drives that were good with 11.3.6 or better with 11.4.2 are now worse than 10.6 ever was.
After steady improvement on the many odd junctions in my neighborhood, we are back to 5-10 second pauses and wildly spinning steering wheel.
At one 4 way stop where it has been consistently good, even from the road with no centerline. Now with 11.4.4 it realizes that driving in the center of the road is stupid, over corrects and ended up diagonal at the stop line pointing in the wrong direction, still flailing the wheel round and round.
So far I’ve not had a single good drive with it.
Edit - I’ve just remembered, with 11.4.2 I recalibrated the cameras, off to do that now
 
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Very very disappointing day with 11.4.4 today.
drives that were good with 11.3.6 or better with 11.4.2 are now worse than 10.6 ever was.
After steady improvement on the many odd junctions in my neighborhood, we are back to 5-10 second pauses and wildly spinning steering wheel.
At one 4 way stop where it has been consistently good, even from the road with no centerline. Now with 11.4.4 it realizes that driving in the center of the road is stupid, over corrects and ended up diagonal at the stop line pointing in the wrong direction, still flailing the wheel round and round.
So far I’ve not had a single good drive with it.
Edit - I’ve just remembered, with 11.4.2 I recalibrated the cameras, off to do that now
Yep. It’s only sort of okay in steady state highway driving. People calling it junk have good reason for doing so.
 
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Very very disappointing day with 11.4.4 today.
drives that were good with 11.3.6 or better with 11.4.2 are now worse than 10.6 ever was.
After steady improvement on the many odd junctions in my neighborhood, we are back to 5-10 second pauses and wildly spinning steering wheel.
At one 4 way stop where it has been consistently good, even from the road with no centerline. Now with 11.4.4 it realizes that driving in the center of the road is stupid, over corrects and ended up diagonal at the stop line pointing in the wrong direction, still flailing the wheel round and round.
So far I’ve not had a single good drive with it.
Edit - I’ve just remembered, with 11.4.2 I recalibrated the cameras, off to do that now
Did recalibration help on 11.4.2?