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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Did a 70 mile drive on various road type yesterday with 11.4.4
most of the simple stuff went very well, very relaxing and competent.
It handled long fast corners well, slowed down where needed and powered out etc. Pretty good.
Of course then we got the stuff where it freaked out.
ULT with center island. It waited for a gap if traffic from the left, but then kept creeping for visibility- in the middle of lanes before it even got the the center. Then it sat there spinning the steering wheel with it backend still in the driving lanes.
For 50% of the “off ramp” style exits, it would try to take them, regardless of road markings or navigation.
Driving on the highway section, it would move from the right lane to center lane with the “following route” message with no cars blocking it.
My favorite was moving into the left lane with .4 of a mile before our exit, again with no obstructing traffic.
 
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Low dose ketamine is being used quite often to treat depression. I’m not in psychiatry but from what I understand it’s been quite beneficial for some.
I can imagine ketamine being effective at low doses for that purpose. And national shortages of medications are always the meds that have been around forever, are off-patent, meaning cheap, which are on national shortage. The pharmaceutical cartels just don't seem as motivated to churn those puppies out.......
 
6 hours today with FSD taking my kids to the air and space museum in DC.

F’n rock solid on the freeway as usual VA Beach to Dulles and back on 64, 95, Fairfax county parkway - totally on point- outstanding Highway behavior and made my drive awesome. The best of Tesla - rock solid energy management, incredible efficiency, reliable and fast 250kw supercharging. Books on tape, chilling (not in k hole) great lane behavior (aggressive with minimal lane changes).

Starts screwing up as soon as I get off the highway. Straight up misses my exit home without intervention, look like a tool to other drivers.

To me it’s pretty simple. It SUCKS on surface streets or any complex interchanges.

They must have a special build for these influencers.
 
I don’t think it is so much that they have a special build for influencers so much that in order to keep their jobs knowing Elon is around they just overfit the data to the influencers that Elon pays attention to. Probably why no breakthrough progress is being made on any number of remedial issues outstanding like turning left or right without going full speed ahead, over yellow double lines, etc.
 
[rant]Tesla needs to offer a path for FSD owners (many original testers) to down/upgrade to 23.20.7. Overall 11.4.x (.2 for me) has been a regression (especially on turning lanes) and I would love to have all the new features we are sorely missing out on. And it is likely to be at least a month or so before we see 11.5.x tested and rolled out in mass to us. So we are soooooo stuck and seem to be languishing on 23.7.x while any newbie can get 23.20.7 and have the FSD Beta experience.
 
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[rant]Tesla needs to offer a path for FSD owners (many original testers) to down/upgrade to 23.20.7. Overall 11.4.x (.2 for me) has been a regression (especially on turning lanes) and I would love to have all the new features we are sorely missing out on. And it is likely to be at least a month or so before we see 11.5.x tested and rolled out in mass to us. So we are soooooo stuck and seem to be languishing on 23.7.x while any newbie can get 23.20.7 and have the FSD Beta experience.
No kidding, right?!
 
[rant]Tesla needs to offer a path for FSD owners (many original testers) to down/upgrade to 23.20.7. Overall 11.4.x (.2 for me) has been a regression (especially on turning lanes) and I would love to have all the new features we are sorely missing out on. And it is likely to be at least a month or so before we see 11.5.x tested and rolled out in mass to us. So we are soooooo stuck and seem to be languishing on 23.7.x while any newbie can get 23.20.7 and have the FSD Beta experience.
Yep, I’d gladly go back to 11.3.6 at this point. Last night 11.4.4 kept trying to move into the parking lane in this town we drove through. The next “scheduled” turn ahead was like 6miles away. Just plain stupid.
 
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Weird thing. I've been punting around with 11.4.4 for the past two weeks: Interstates, major local roads (4+ lanes, two each direction); local roads with stripes and controlled intersections with lights; local roads with 4-way stops, 2-way stops; and local roads with a certain distinct lack of any kind of control whatsoever and not much in the way of stripes at all. And, usually, congestion, congestion, and, did I mention? Congestion. This is Central Jersey. Home of roads designed from the pre-Revolutionary Days to the present. Which means all sorts of strange angles on intersections, not to mention places where five+ roads come together at funny angles.

According to the Worst Complaints on this thread, I should have Really White Hair, Numerous near-crashes, Attempts at Crossing three lanes to hit a left (or right) failing, and all that jazz. And be ready to dump the car, dump FSD-b, request to run far away, regret the $6k I spent (I was early) on the software, and all that.

Weird, that: Yep, FSD-b's got its bugs. For me it's mainly swinging wide right on a left turn. And I occasionally have to goose it through a turn that it seems kind of slow going. And there's the occasional busted car creeping its way down the right shoulder that FSD-b doesn't quite know how to handle.

But those are bugs and, well, in my experience, they're not common. I can reliably make it twelve to twenty miles sans intervention, loads better than last year. It's not particularly scary at all. I've been bunting my way up and down I-95 and related roads between NJ and MA sans real problems, and that includes areas that range from city downtowns to pretty darn rural. (Although not in the same class of rural as, say, Texas or Central Ohio.)

I'll admit that FSD-b isn't quite ready for Prime Time. But what's all this, "It's terrible! Run for your lives!" vibe?

I get some things. People have different sensitivities to a non-human driver. The wheel does jerk sometimes (again, vastly reduced from last year) and, on this thread, certain people have really complained about that. My reaction is, "It's a Beta, dammit. What do you expect?" But the.. vitriol.. seems more than a little over the top. And, frankly, makes me wonder about the people, or perhaps, the cars involved.

In my life at work I've had the unenviable job of taking customer complaints about multi-million dollar piles of random electronics and doing a buck-stops-here act: Finding out what really happened. Interestingly, I've generally found that the customers have been generally truthful: If they said that they saw X, Y, and Z, they generally truly did. (There have been the very rare case of, say, the customer field tech pulling the wrong module at the wrong time; but that usually can be detected by looking in the logs.) What usually has happened is some bug: In installation; in use; in the hardware design; in the software design; and, most commonly, in a combination of hardware and software operation that would put Rube Goldberg's comics to shame.

So, let's do a Fishbone on the problem. (A Fishbone is the general practice of coming up with as many possible faults as one can think of of $RANDOM reasonableness. Then, one pares off various paths, Sherlock Holmes style, and, with luck, one will have narrowed things down to the one or several likely suspects.)

So, around here we've got people Really Complaining about the car that they're driving and how horrible it's been acting with FSD-b. But.. you got maniacs like me who aren't being scared out of their gourd by the beast, and I'm not the only one. And the people who haven't been complaining bitterly are running the same software as the ones who have.

That, in my mind, leads to serious questions about the hardware. And latent, undetected faults.

I'm driving a 2018 M3, LR, RWD that came with HW2.5 and has since been updated to HW3.0.

I've been reading the threads and forum in general and, well, have kind of been looking for magic bullets. There's been some hints. Most recently, a poster reported that his cabin camera was replaced and that fixed a GPS problem that was making TACC/LK unusable. The claim from the Service Center that fixed the issue was that there was some kind of RF interference between the camera hardware (!) and the GPS antenna that, apparently, is located up there on the windshield.

A bit older hint has been that calibrating the cameras on the car has sometimes improved matters.

And an even older hint has people resetting the car, either through:
  • Double scroll-wheel reset;
  • Turning off the car through the Safety screen;
  • or Disconnecting the HV battery by lifting up the rear seat and having a go at the contactor cable.
I've had decent results from the "reset" trick, but that fix worked mainly last year, not this. And, in that case, it was that FSD-b wouldn't even start, never mind malfunction badly.

I'm still not convinced, one way or the other, whether we're talking SW or HW. I suppose that we take some path that a killer complainer talks about that fails regularly - then get somebody else, with a car that, presumably, hasn't been giving the driver the fits, and is running the same software load, and see how that car performs: Same time of day. Maybe in tandem, with one car or the other running through the area, say, one minute apart. If they both act the same, then I'd guess software. If they're different.. Then life gets interesting.

Comments?
 
I’d love to see some model S action around a decent portion of southeastern PA, but that might actually result in loss of life in certain scenarios so I can’t actually recommend anyone try.
I’ve got tons of HW4 FSDb videos in southwestern Pa, if the roads in the east are as crazy as they are here, it’ll definitely be confused with a bunch of scenarios.
 
2018 Dual Motor, Long Range, HW3, FSD, 157K miles

How close are we to Full Self Drive, not Elon Spin, real FSD, enter destination and go to sleep? Let’s use RoboTaxi as the benchmark. If it is the benchmark, then at least a decade. Why a decade? There is no existing infrastructure to support RoboTaxi’s. If this is a true statement, then one could posit Elon knows this and FSD won’t be avail anytime soon. There’s been no investment in local infrastructure to support robotaxis.

Bottom line, FSD not happening anytime soon. Without the infrastructure – locations for the taxis to return to for charging (somebody has to plug them in), staging locations to queue up, seeing they will be running 24x7. Maintenance and cleaning, interior and exterior (plus folks getting sick in the car), check vehicles for left packages all require manual labor and staffing. Obviously there will be a need for way more charging locations to support all the taxis. Not to mention all the spare parts and logistics to support all those locations for the maintenance. Service centers are wayyyyyy to far apart and already jammed up. When we see Tesla purchasing gas stations with service bays in towns and installing Superchargers, we know we are getting close.

So keep hyping the current fsd system with it’s ridiculous cost and minor updates and some serious issues, nearly two head ons with 11.4.4, running stop signs, missing turns, wrong lanes, constant brake slowing, false blinkers, can’t merge on highways, fails to signal on exits, fails to exit, stops and doesn’t proceed at intersections, unstable lefts and rights at intersections, taking too long at intersections especially when no cars are around, etc etc. At some point reality sets in after all the adjectives have been exhausted.

Until he makes FSD transferable, I have to keep my existing Tesla, they do not value FSD at $15K on a trade in. Granted I didn’t pay $15K when I built the car, plus I purchased it for the free hardware upgrades I knew they would have to do. Apparently there are no more free hardware upgrades. So stranded and abandoned.

In fairness the system is pretty far advanced and has come a long way. I enjoy using it everyday and being a beta tester except for when it tries to crash. It still has a long way to go. I wish more of the youtubers would post the failures instead of “How mind blowing it is or so Smooth”, whatever catch phrase of the day Elon used, this way we know what to be ready for when we use it. Saying it is great and wonderful does not help the developers in any way nor the multitude of users who actually believe Elon and the youtubers. Just think how wonderful it has been every release for the past 5 years, hmmm every release was wonderful, NOT!

Some one mention a metric of disengagements per mile and I suggest a breakdown on each type disengagement. Now we can see where the majority of the disengagements are occurring. I think this would be good to track improvement. Sometimes I have several per mile around town especially at intersections, less so on highways (on ramps, off ramps).

How do we know we are getting close, look for local tesla service stations popping up, then we’ll know we are getting close, else more of the same….

Go Tesla. Keep testing, collecting the data and be safe out there. We’ll get there eventually.
 
Weird thing. I've been punting around with 11.4.4 for the past two weeks: Interstates, major local roads (4+ lanes, two each direction); local roads with stripes and controlled intersections with lights; local roads with 4-way stops, 2-way stops; and local roads with a certain distinct lack of any kind of control whatsoever and not much in the way of stripes at all. And, usually, congestion, congestion, and, did I mention? Congestion. This is Central Jersey. Home of roads designed from the pre-Revolutionary Days to the present. Which means all sorts of strange angles on intersections, not to mention places where five+ roads come together at funny angles.

According to the Worst Complaints on this thread, I should have Really White Hair, Numerous near-crashes, Attempts at Crossing three lanes to hit a left (or right) failing, and all that jazz. And be ready to dump the car, dump FSD-b, request to run far away, regret the $6k I spent (I was early) on the software, and all that.

Weird, that: Yep, FSD-b's got its bugs. For me it's mainly swinging wide right on a left turn. And I occasionally have to goose it through a turn that it seems kind of slow going. And there's the occasional busted car creeping its way down the right shoulder that FSD-b doesn't quite know how to handle.

But those are bugs and, well, in my experience, they're not common. I can reliably make it twelve to twenty miles sans intervention, loads better than last year. It's not particularly scary at all. I've been bunting my way up and down I-95 and related roads between NJ and MA sans real problems, and that includes areas that range from city downtowns to pretty darn rural. (Although not in the same class of rural as, say, Texas or Central Ohio.)

I'll admit that FSD-b isn't quite ready for Prime Time. But what's all this, "It's terrible! Run for your lives!" vibe?

I get some things. People have different sensitivities to a non-human driver. The wheel does jerk sometimes (again, vastly reduced from last year) and, on this thread, certain people have really complained about that. My reaction is, "It's a Beta, dammit. What do you expect?" But the.. vitriol.. seems more than a little over the top. And, frankly, makes me wonder about the people, or perhaps, the cars involved.

In my life at work I've had the unenviable job of taking customer complaints about multi-million dollar piles of random electronics and doing a buck-stops-here act: Finding out what really happened. Interestingly, I've generally found that the customers have been generally truthful: If they said that they saw X, Y, and Z, they generally truly did. (There have been the very rare case of, say, the customer field tech pulling the wrong module at the wrong time; but that usually can be detected by looking in the logs.) What usually has happened is some bug: In installation; in use; in the hardware design; in the software design; and, most commonly, in a combination of hardware and software operation that would put Rube Goldberg's comics to shame.

So, let's do a Fishbone on the problem. (A Fishbone is the general practice of coming up with as many possible faults as one can think of of $RANDOM reasonableness. Then, one pares off various paths, Sherlock Holmes style, and, with luck, one will have narrowed things down to the one or several likely suspects.)

So, around here we've got people Really Complaining about the car that they're driving and how horrible it's been acting with FSD-b. But.. you got maniacs like me who aren't being scared out of their gourd by the beast, and I'm not the only one. And the people who haven't been complaining bitterly are running the same software as the ones who have.

That, in my mind, leads to serious questions about the hardware. And latent, undetected faults.

I'm driving a 2018 M3, LR, RWD that came with HW2.5 and has since been updated to HW3.0.

I've been reading the threads and forum in general and, well, have kind of been looking for magic bullets. There's been some hints. Most recently, a poster reported that his cabin camera was replaced and that fixed a GPS problem that was making TACC/LK unusable. The claim from the Service Center that fixed the issue was that there was some kind of RF interference between the camera hardware (!) and the GPS antenna that, apparently, is located up there on the windshield.

A bit older hint has been that calibrating the cameras on the car has sometimes improved matters.

And an even older hint has people resetting the car, either through:
  • Double scroll-wheel reset;
  • Turning off the car through the Safety screen;
  • or Disconnecting the HV battery by lifting up the rear seat and having a go at the contactor cable.
I've had decent results from the "reset" trick, but that fix worked mainly last year, not this. And, in that case, it was that FSD-b wouldn't even start, never mind malfunction badly.

I'm still not convinced, one way or the other, whether we're talking SW or HW. I suppose that we take some path that a killer complainer talks about that fails regularly - then get somebody else, with a car that, presumably, hasn't been giving the driver the fits, and is running the same software load, and see how that car performs: Same time of day. Maybe in tandem, with one car or the other running through the area, say, one minute apart. If they both act the same, then I'd guess software. If they're different.. Then life gets interesting.

Comments?
Great comments and feedback and agree with your assessment. Perfect no, but some of the ”terrified“ complaints just seem unusual Or I find they are at times a placebo effect from the usual group of posters (there are a dozen with a clear agenda on this topic) that like to fuel the pot. Along with regions, hardware, and street marking variants I also suspect there are variables that change the result for some. Wish people recorded ALL of their settings to properly compare notes/issues. Example:
1. Model Y vs Model S regen is almost double (50 vs 85). Does that create PB events more often?
2. Is speed override set to percentage or value? How much Over value? Could explain why some cars slow at a light even vs aggressively?
3. Minimum lane change active? Does item #2 above Increase aggressive lane changes to comply with your override?
4. Is Emergency braking active? Disabled?
5. Do you clean cameras often? Ever? If you had a bug slat over your eye you to would move cautiously forward.
6. Chill mode or rocket speed? Does this manipulate the default settings?
7. And Dozens more like this.
Point being, I believe there are likely a Thousand manual configuration variables while the software was likely designed from a baseline. My Guess is some have ”selected wisely” (Indiana Jones) while others await a miracle software variance. My Wish is that Tesla mandated a preset configuration for all cars to use FSDb however they likely waved that attempt as many would be catatonic over fixed variables (like max speed turned into……)
 
There are things that are not dependent on HW/SW configuration and can be fixed earlier:

1. Prepare to change lane early than normal human driving in order to make left/right turns. A human driver can quickly switch to the next lane to make turn at the intersection but the current state of the art of FSD cannot do that. So FSD should take action early.
2. Prepare to change lange early to enter freeway ramp.
3. Prepare to change lane early to exit freeway.
4. Move to the left lane right away after enter freeway.
5. Stop using lane centering algorithm. Put the car in the center of the rightmost lane of the road is not the right thing to do. Similarly with the situation with the car on the rightmost lane of the ramp to enter freeway. I guess my car veered to the shoulder when entering freeway because of this.
Use the left lane marker as a reference is better.
6. Stop using shortest path or shortest time algorithm on city streets. I guess this causes random lane changing. Use least lane changing algorithm.
 
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