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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Yeah, and it's not just FSD Beta for new HW4 vehicles. The switch away from ultrasonic sensors only recently got Park Assist presumably based on 11.x Occupancy Network predictions, but there's other features like Summon that are still missing and could happen before v12. I don't know the take rate of Enhanced Autopilot these days, but if FSD Capability is still around 20%, there's probably a lot of grumpy customers that paid for features that still don't work on their new cars.
It was at 14% I thought Tesla said last year. Is there anything new saying it's 20%?
 
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It was at 14% I thought Tesla said last year. Is there anything new saying it's 20%?
Oh indeed, the current take rate seems to be closer to 14% for new North America deliveries whereas the overall take rate of the deployed NA fleet is around 20% based on Troy Teslike estimates through 2022Q3. If we guesstimate 500k HW4 new vehicles in North America this year with a 14% take rate, that could be 70k owners waiting on 11.4.x to use FSD Beta.

Maybe even higher take rate for Q3 given the transfer incentive. We're on the fence of moving it from a 2018 3 to a 2023 Y, but without the incentive, we wouldn't even consider it.
 
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Nothing new to add about 11.4's capabilities and limitations - they've been pretty well covered.

As an FYI I will post that I got another false strike this morning on my way to work. I had the screen flash blue and beep at me once and actually thought how unusual it was to hear the beep since 11.4 waits until the very last second to start beeping. At the time I was passing a freeway exit looking forward and slightly off to the right. A minute later it beeped at me again. This time I was looking straight forward and there was little to no blue screen warning. Both times there was a message at the bottom of the screen that I didn't read (I assumed it was the standard 'grab the steering wheel' warning but it might have said something different.)

Then about 2 minutes later I got the Red Wheel of Death and the message staying I was in time out. Holding the steering wheel with one hand, coffee cup in my other, looking straight ahead. It was dawn and light enough that I didn't need headlights but the sun wasn't high enough to need sunglasses, no other remarkable conditions.
 
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Nothing new to add about 11.4's capabilities and limitations - they've been pretty well covered.

As an FYI I will post that I got another false strike this morning on my way to work. I had the screen flash blue and beep at me once and actually thought how unusual it was to hear the beep since 11.4 waits until the very last second to start beeping. At the time I was passing a freeway exit looking forward and slightly off to the right. A minute later it beeped at me again. This time I was looking straight forward and there was little to no blue screen warning. Both times there was a message at the bottom of the screen that I didn't read (I assumed it was the standard 'grab the steering wheel' warning but it might have said something different.)

Then about 2 minutes later I got the Red Wheel of Death and the message staying I was in time out. Holding the steering wheel with one hand, coffee cup in my other, looking straight ahead. It was dawn and light enough that I didn't need headlights but the sun wasn't high enough to need sunglasses, no other remarkable conditions.
I think it would help if you move your head a little all the time! On older version of FSDb, I found that if my mind drift off a little bit thinking about something, warning will show up. Also warnings will usually come up when near merges or getting near trucks or heavier traffic!
 
Yeah, and it's not just FSD Beta for new HW4 vehicles. The switch away from ultrasonic sensors only recently got Park Assist presumably based on 11.x Occupancy Network predictions, but there's other features like Summon that are still missing and could happen before v12. I don't know the take rate of Enhanced Autopilot these days, but if FSD Capability is still around 20%, there's probably a lot of grumpy customers that paid for features that still don't work on their new cars.
Does anyone Really ever use Summon though?? Seems it was only of interest when they dumped it but I don’t recall anyone ever using more then once as a parlor trick. Yes they took something away but in the bigger picture I doubt anyone really cares.
 
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Does anyone Really ever use Summon though?? Seems it was only of interest when they dumped it but I don’t recall anyone ever using more then once as a parlor trick. Yes they took something away but in the bigger picture I doubt anyone really cares.
I think lots of people would use it if it actually worked. I have a tight garage where there's not much room to open the door; it would be great to be able to summon out of it and even better to summon into it.
 
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Does anyone Really ever use Summon though?? Seems it was only of interest when they dumped it but I don’t recall anyone ever using more then once as a parlor trick. Yes they took something away but in the bigger picture I doubt anyone really cares.
Summon,

is USELESS other than slightly moving a car around a garage or parking space, and by that I mean 1-2 ft. Forward or back. It’s a total fail at this point.
 
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Summon,

is USELESS other than slightly moving a car around a garage or parking space, and by that I mean 1-2 ft. Forward or back. It’s a total fail at this point.
I love the declarative statements from people. It's a total fail *for you*. I use it multiple times a day. When I get home, I open my garage, and pull up to the door, put it in park, double press the park button and press Forward. I get out of the car and it pulls forward into the garage about 15 or so feet, stopping before hitting the storage chest. When I need to leave, I open the garage, open the Tesla app and press Summon, then reverse, and the car backs out of my garage and stops in the middle of my driveway, ready for me to get in and leave.

Never once had an issue with it slamming into something or scratching against the wall or garage door.
 
I love the declarative statements from people. It's a total fail *for you*. I use it multiple times a day. When I get home, I open my garage, and pull up to the door, put it in park, double press the park button and press Forward. I get out of the car and it pulls forward into the garage about 15 or so feet, stopping before hitting the storage chest. When I need to leave, I open the garage, open the Tesla app and press Summon, then reverse, and the car backs out of my garage and stops in the middle of my driveway, ready for me to get in and leave.

Never once had an issue with it slamming into something or scratching against the wall or garage door.
that’s not the only USE CASE that summon is being sold on. That’s really just a garage parking facilitation. And, I’d like to see it do that with a garage with another car, and less than 12” inches between vehicles. It just STOPS completely and times out, or fails out.
 
that’s not the only USE CASE that summon is being sold on. That’s really just a garage parking facilitation. And, I’d like to see it do that with a garage with another car, and less than 12” inches between vehicles. It just STOPS completely and times out, or fails out.
Two car garage, with the other car being a BMW X3.

PXL_20230803_213450828.jpg
 
I don’t want to be THAT guy but “thats not 12 inches”. ;-)
Well let's see:
is USELESS other than slightly moving a car around a garage or parking space, and by that I mean 1-2 ft. Forward or back. It’s a total fail at this point.
I've proven that statement totally wrong. Then you decided to restrict it to a garage with another car, then added the distance between cars has to be less than a foot. Anymore restrictions you wanna place on this to prove your point?

🤦
 
Well let's see:

I've proven that statement totally wrong. Then you decided to restrict it to a garage with another car, then added the distance between cars has to be less than a foot. Anymore restrictions you wanna place on this to prove your point?

🤦
I can’t hep you if you’re using the metic system, or something undie hundie.

how bout you do between thus dooe’s
 
Two things.
  1. When I can, I do use the Summon feature, mainly for backing the car out of the garage when I want to do something. Unfortunately, there's minor problems with this: The wi-fi signal appears to be flakey in that garage so it takes several tries before the car ups and moves. Why not when going in? Because there's a blame lip between the pavement and the concrete floor of the garage, put in there by the builders, and the car won't put out the oomph it takes to get over said lip. But that's not Tesla's problem.
  2. Yeah, the 2018 M3 has the USS sensors and all. But Tesla says on the release currently being used that it's Vision Only. And, well, it works when parallel parking. And one doesn't need to have cars to both sides (previous release) or even on one side: The car will park with the lines, only. And, while a bit slow, does so faultlessly. Biggest problem: Getting lined up so it knows one wants to park. There's... tricks to that. But not insurmountable ones.
 
When I can, I do use the Summon feature, mainly for backing the car out of the garage when I want to do something. Unfortunately, there's minor problems with this: The wi-fi signal appears to be flakey in that garage so it takes several tries before the car ups and moves. Why not when going in? Because there's a blame lip between the pavement and the concrete floor of the garage, put in there by the builders, and the car won't put out the oomph it takes to get over said lip. But that's not Tesla's problem.
One thing you can try is pulling in a bit so your front tires just pop over that lip, then park and let Auto Park handle the rest of the way in.
 
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Nothing new to add about 11.4's capabilities and limitations - they've been pretty well covered.

As an FYI I will post that I got another false strike this morning on my way to work. I had the screen flash blue and beep at me once and actually thought how unusual it was to hear the beep since 11.4 waits until the very last second to start beeping. At the time I was passing a freeway exit looking forward and slightly off to the right. A minute later it beeped at me again. This time I was looking straight forward and there was little to no blue screen warning. Both times there was a message at the bottom of the screen that I didn't read (I assumed it was the standard 'grab the steering wheel' warning but it might have said something different.)

Then about 2 minutes later I got the Red Wheel of Death and the message staying I was in time out. Holding the steering wheel with one hand, coffee cup in my other, looking straight ahead. It was dawn and light enough that I didn't need headlights but the sun wasn't high enough to need sunglasses, no other remarkable conditions.
I finally figured out that the Tesla thinks my coffee mug is a phone sometimes, especially when held on my right side (RHD) at about chest level.

I hold it lower now closer to the console and haven't had issues in awhile.

Could be contributing to the quick and successive nags you had.
 
I finally figured out that the Tesla thinks my coffee mug is a phone sometimes, especially when held on my right side (RHD) at about chest level.

I hold it lower now closer to the console and haven't had issues in awhile.

Could be contributing to the quick and successive nags you had.
My car does the same thing with Diet Coke cans and protein bars. Understandable, at least for the protein bars, as they do look a bit like an unfolded flip phone… from the ‘90’s. That is, if you squint really hard and hold your breath for two minutes.

No idea about the Diet Coke, though. Maybe the car is a Pepsi fan?