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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


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Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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I've been keeping a list (link) of a dozen or so spots where I must routinely disengage FSDβ, and I check each new release to see if any of these have been fixed. Probably none of them are particularly dangerous, but each would certainly confuse or piss off other drivers and/or scare my passengers.

On the progress side, 11.4.4 is much better at keeping FSD available than was 11.3.6 - much less blinking grey steering wheel icon and therefor far fewer failures to engage. Also there seems to be fewer random blinker activations. While somewhat subjective, 11.4.4 also seems to have balanced the quickness of responding to requesting a lane change with the blinker, and the delay between the warning and blinker before making an automatic lane change. Now the requested lane change starts promptly, and the automatic one gives enough time to cancel without zig-zagging.

As for regressions, 11.3.6 had fixed one long standing issue fixed, but it has returned from the dead bug graveyard: abrupt firm braking far before one particular stop sign. Sadly 11.4.2 brought it back, and it persists in 11.4.4. This is less than a quarter mile from home, and results in passengers and unsecured contents getting tossed forward. This makes FSD demo drives awkward, instant proof that it is not yet ready for prime time.

Based on only one short drive, 11.4.2 appears to have retained the other problems as well. There are a couple I have not checked yet.

One which the 11.4.4 release notes suggested may have improved relates to merging out of an ending lane. In this case, a freeway onramp leads to a new lane which then shortly becomes into an exit only lane and off-ramp. The car should turn on the blinker and change into the thru lane right away, or else it is forced to Take the exit. Today, 11.4.4 did manage, but only just barely, as it delayed the blinker and lane change till the last second, and had to cross the triangular exit lane gore to make its abrupt merge.

There is a complication at this spot in that the car comes down the entire straight on-ramp thinking the speed limit is 30mph, clearly a map error. Next time I'll dial up the speed to see if it can handle the merge at a normal speed. Does anyone know who to contact to get the ramp speed fixed on the map?

I guess the wait for 11.420 begins today...
It was back on 6/21 that I commented on 11.4.4. Pretty much it was the same as 11.3.6, except that 3.6 would often not allow FSD to engage.

I've now (9/10/23) had several drives on 11.4.7, and as far as I can tell it is the same as 11.4.4.

I have had no wiper troubles, but have also had no rain since 11.4.7.

The list of problems I continue to watch remains the same as I posted in May. (link)
 
I've been using FSDb (11.4.7 chill and chill) on a lot of shorter trips recently, between 80 and 15 miles round trip, in city and highway driving in light to moderate traffic. One thing I've notice is that while FSD still sometimes gets into a dedicated right turn lane, that is not part of the route, it will now almost immediately correct the error and return to the correct lane. This is also true for lane selections on interstates. I have had more issues with slowing excessively around pedestrians that do not appear to be in danger. There is a slight increase in phantom slowing but nothing dramatic. There is still a problem with selecting the incorrect lane, to turn into a destination. it sometimes gets into the right lane before needing to make a left tune. I still have the old nav.data, hopefully that will change soon. I've seen where a lot of people have had problems with windshield wipers, I have only had it come on one time for one swipe on a dry window. I still do have interventions but there are fewer, possibly because I am more aware of what to expect now than I was before and to some extent because the system is better at driving the car.
FSDb is still a driver assist system not L2 or 3.
 
.......FSDb is still a driver assist system not L2 or 3.
Slight correction. L2 is Driver Assist so that is exactly what FSD Beta is.

No dry wiping today but I did only drive 4 miles. Preparing to get my a$$ wiped tomorrow though. It was sooooooooo bad Saturday may need to replace my windshield and wipers.:eek:
 
I have to agree. My son has a Ford Mach E GT and the fact that he can drive on the highway without ANY steering wheel nags is very nice. Why is Tesla so late to party on this capability? Even if it’s only on Highway it would be a huge help.
Ford doesn't have L3 to my knowledge - I think they just use the camera to gauge attention/gaze?

My guess is Tesla is the victim of a lot of stupidity on the part of early Tesla owners (you know the ones - climbing into the passenger seat, etc) About a year ago I saw an article that was criticizing Tesla because the safety measures were too easy to defeat. This was before Tesla implemented attention/gaze tracking and they put a sandbag in the driver's seat, clipped the seat belt, and weighted the steering wheel. Somehow they claimed it would have been Tesla's fault if the car was in an accident when they went to those extremes to trick the system. 🙄
 
Tesla feeds tens, if not hundreds of thousands of video clips into the training system. Reporting something is important, but it is combined with enormous amounts of other data from the FSD Beta fleet. It may be weighted higher than other feeds, but likely not as statistically relevant as you hope it would be.
I still make reports because I have a faint hope that they use speech recognition to file & categorize the reports so filing a report makes a difference in their statistics for disengagement reasons even if they don't actually use the clip for training.
 
That... was my point? I realize it's not on because of the truck in front. It's going off each time a vehicle passes the repeaters. Also, if Tesla seriously just put one LED on the driver's side... I will laugh. The most Tesla thing ever. It really appears, based on the wording, that this is exactly what they did.

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what's your point? How is this different from 90% of the blind spot systems that have an LED in the mirror except that it's 6" closer to you? My Audi had a larger light in the inner surface of the mirror housing that was easier to see but any of these are much better than the non-solution they implemented a few years ago using the repeater cameras.

Either way, @JulienW has the best solution - properly adjust your mirrors to cover the blind spots.
 
I absolutely hate how hesitant it is making left Turns, the last car passes through the intersection and it just sits there. If the next version isn’t better, I’m trading it in and getting something else.
Or you could simply touch the accelerator to say it’s clear. Absolutely just sell your car totally the smart play….
 
what's your point? How is this different from 90% of the blind spot systems that have an LED in the mirror except that it's 6" closer to you? My Audi had a larger light in the inner surface of the mirror housing that was easier to see but any of these are much better than the non-solution they implemented a few years ago using the repeater cameras.

Either way, @JulienW has the best solution - properly adjust your mirrors to cover the blind spots.
Uh what? How is this different? Why would I want an LED in my left A-Pillar when I’m moving to the right lane? Please tell me what are these 90% of cars that have this “feature”? I’ve never driven one, that’s for sure, and I’ve driven a lot of cars.
 
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Mostly I agree that 11.4.7 is very similar to 11.4.4. I don't see anything solved regarding incorrect lane change attempts or transient signaling. However I have had a couple of degradations:

Wipers: A couple of dry-wipe occurrences that I very much want to avoid, due to daily accumulation of gritty dust on the windshield. So I'm being proactive with a manual wash/wipe cycle if I see any signs of sun glare on the dusty windshield. This had been solved with the first versions of 11.4 if not before, when it would give a spray on the first wipe of the drive. Not happy that it has reverted.

Actual driving behavior: I've had two or three instances of a degradation on left turn path planning. The car suddenly decides it can't take a normal left turn path and starts to wrench the wheel hard left. This first occurred when I was the front car waiting for a leading green arrow, to turn onto a four-lane divided road. When the light changed and I had the arrow, suddenly for no discernible reason I got a sharp left steering wheel action instead of a normal smooth arc into the leftmost cross-traffic lane (next to the median). I really don't know what happened there as it has previously done very well with these kinds of low pressure protected left turns.

The second occurrence of this left turn problem was a little more explainable; I was on the inside lane of a double-lane protected left. There was a pickup truck making the left turn in the outer lane to my right, so I guess FSD got spooked and wanted to turn away from the truck even though there was no obvious problem. This is a turn I take every day and was problem-free since 10.69.

While I don't consider these issues to be major crises, it's a little disappointing, and I'm not detecting any off sitting improvements in other known problem areas. I haven't seen any credible explanation of what 11.4.7 is supposed to do, and I don't think the release notes changed at all.

If it were up to me, I'd be happy to have the newest ma8n-branch build that now comes with 11.4.4. I don't mind contributing to the testing data but I'm not sure that's really happening at this point with 11 4.x. OTOH, if I have a chance to get v12 earlier by staying in the early adopter group, I'm happy to do so.

I definitely much prefer to drive around town on FSD, and I disengage it onoy when I know it's about to fight me on lane selection, or I need to make a u-turn or otherwise take over for the navigation choices.
 
The Wall Street Journal did a “less than flattering” piece on Elon Musk today, related to Twitter. It offers insights into how he runs Tesla, I think. Also, this YouTube video from the Wall Street Journal on Tesla FSDb is now four weeks old, and may have already been discussed, but just in case people have not seen it, it is worth the five minutes of your life you lose by watching it.


Also…

K
Wouldn't have happened if the car still relied on a radar..
 
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Wouldn't have happened if the car still relied on a radar..
1. This 2019 Model X did have radar, and the software still used radar. Radar was removed from models 3 and Y in the springtime of 2021 as I recall, and I believe the autopilot software continued to use it for quite a while after that.

2. The type of radar used in these Teslas, and in most cars up to that time, cannot distinguish stopped cars from any other fixed infrastructure, particularly problematic with vehicles that are partially in the lane or just outside the lane, and that have not recently slowed down.

The FSD system that we are using now, based on camera vision and not radar, is far and away more capable of dealing with this kind of situation. Nonetheless, at this time Tesla does not represent that such situations can be handled reliably without the supervision of the driver/operator.

I would say that the root cause of the accident was mentioned (though only in passing) in the video: the driver was impaired and should not have been driving the car. It may be the case that the driver decided to proceed because he had Autopilot; there's no way we can know that other than his own very unreliable commentary.

Is it better when a driver is so totally irresponsible that he drives under the influence and he also has no Autopilot or crash avoidance system of any kind? Incidents like that happen every day and night.
 
I absolutely hate how hesitant it is making left Turns, the last car passes through the intersection and it just sits there. If the next version isn’t better, I’m trading it in and getting something else.
The hesitation drives me nuts too, and not just on left turns. 4 way stops and even right turns are sluggish and embarrassing. I usually need to intervene.
 
As the video mentions, this is not the first time Tesla fails to recognize an emergency vehicle. And then there is another infamous video where it fails to recognize a child mannequin, and a video from the UK where the car refuses to see a red garbage bin that's right in front of it, and I am sure plenty others.

I think the whole point of a radar or a lidar is exactly that you don't actually need to distinguish between a car, a fixed structure or a pedestrian - or anything else for that matter. Whatever is in your way, you need to apply emergency braking. Especially considering that half of all serious car accidents happen at night (Why Do More Car Crashes Happen at Night? | Staver) where any vision system will always be impaired.
 
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